UNCTAD: Global Maritime Transport Faces Major Volatility Amid Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflict

The maritime transport industry is undergoing a period of major volatility amid rising geopolitical tensions and disruptions caused by a new wave of tariffs. This was the conclusion of a report published yesterday (Sept. 24) by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Due to an increasingly complex and uncertain global trade environment, subdued industrial activity in major economies, and weak Chinese demand for bulk commodities, UNCTAD has revised its maritime trade growth forecast for 2025 downwards.

The agency now forecasts that total maritime trade volume will grow by only 0.5% annually, while containerized trade will see slightly faster growth at 1.4%.

The report highlights that trade policy changes, including new tariffs, are disrupting global supply chains. Maritime operations in the Black Sea have become complicated by Russia's war in Ukraine, UNCTAD said. Conflict in the Middle East has driven up shipping costs as vessels reroute around the Cape of Good Hope following disruptions in the Red Sea. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 34% of global seaborne oil exports pass, has also faced the risk of disruption in recent months due to escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.

“Not since the closure of the Suez Canal in 1967 have we witnessed such sustained disruption to the arteries of global commerce,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan in the report's foreword.

Grynspan stressed that the maritime transport industry must fundamentally rethink its operations to cope with fragile supply chains and heightened geopolitical instability.

Maritime trade journeys are becoming longer – increasing from an average shipping distance of 4,831 miles in 2018 to 5,245 miles in 2024 – reflecting changes in trade routes and geopolitics, UNCTAD said.

“Distance is no longer geography; it is geoeconomics,” said Grynspan.

Looking at the longer term, from 2026–2030, UNCTAD expects total seaborne trade to grow by an annual average of 2% and containerized trade by 2.3%.
 

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Source: Phaata.com (According to UNCTAD / MarineLink)

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