Asia-Europe Container Rates Ease Back, Transpacific Holds Its Gains

The U.S. military operation recently launched to facilitate vessel transits through the Persian Gulf is generating fresh escalation and reigniting sporadic fighting across the Middle East.

Hormuz: Two Ships Through, Ceasefire Now at Risk

With U.S. Navy support, two American-flagged vessels successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. However, Iranian attacks on both commercial and U.S. naval vessels, Washington's retaliatory response that sank several Iranian boats, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone strikes on the UAE mark the first such incidents since the ceasefire took hold nearly a month ago — significantly raising the risk of that ceasefire unraveling.

In its current form, the U.S. operation is unlikely to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and will therefore struggle to make a meaningful dent in global oil supply. For the container and air cargo markets, current developments have yet to produce any significant change.

Ocean Freight: Rate Increases Failing to Stick, Fuel Costs Still a Burden

On the ocean freight side, the continued closure of the strait is keeping cost pressure on carriers through elevated bunker prices — though actual fuel shortages remain minimal for now. That said, supply-demand dynamics during the seasonally slow period are limiting the impact that carriers' Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS) and other planned rate adjustments are having on spot rates.

Transpacific rates rose 2% to the West Coast and 10% to the East Coast last week — representing a cumulative gain of roughly $1,000/FEU, or 50%, since the war broke out. These are meaningful increases, particularly given that they are holding during a low-demand stretch. Nevertheless, current rate levels remain not far from where they stood ahead of Lunar New Year — before the war — are nowhere near the peaks seen during recent crises, and are largely still below GRI targets.

Asia-Europe rates have slipped back to approximately pre-war levels: North Europe prices are now only $100/FEU above late-February levels, while Mediterranean prices have actually dipped below pre-war marks. Asia-Mediterranean rates rose 7% last week, but daily prices this week have already begun trending back down — erasing those gains entirely and underscoring the difficulty carriers face in making rate increases stick, particularly on these lanes.

Warning Signs From Manufacturing and Consumer Demand

There are growing signs that manufacturing activity in parts of the Far East is slowing, driven by higher input costs and tightened supply chains caused by the war — a development that could weigh on cargo volumes heading into peak season. Meanwhile, notable shifts in U.S. consumer spending behavior may also have implications for container demand in the months ahead.

At another intersection of war and trade, the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for mid-month in Beijing — aimed at stabilizing bilateral trade relations — is facing additional headwinds, as China has pushed back against new U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil.

Air Cargo: Rates Still Elevated but Past Their Peak

Air cargo markets are continuing the trend observed in recent weeks. The combination of elevated fuel prices, gradually recovering capacity, and the rerouting of flights toward lanes with stronger demand due to the war has kept rate levels high — though most have now passed their peaks.

The Freightos Air Index global benchmark stands 25% above pre-war levels but is down 5% month on month. China-U.S. rates are at $5.48/kg, down 7% from late February. Most other major lanes remain well above pre-war marks but are flat or declining from their highs, which were largely reached in mid-April.

Southeast Asia-Europe rates edged back up to near their April peak of $5.40/kg. South Asia-Europe came in at $4.60/kg, down 10% from its high a few weeks ago. Southeast Asia-North America fell 9% from its peak to $6.41/kg.

Lanes into the Middle East are facing comparatively heavier pressure: North America-Middle East prices climbed 6% week on week to $4.57/kg, a new record high, while Europe-Middle East rates sit at $3.87/kg, just 2% below their peak two weeks ago. This heightened pressure is likely being driven by rising demand as air cargo capacity in the Middle East region gradually recovers.

See more:

• Global Schedule Reliability Hits Year-to-Date High in March 2026
• Two US Destroyers Enter the Persian Gulf, Washington Declares Absolute Control Over the Strait of Hormuz
• Middle East Pressure: Maersk Shifts to Weekly Fuel Surcharge Mechanism in Three European Countries
• Trans-Pacific Trade: The Exodus of Non-Alliance Carriers
• The North European Port Paradox: When Opting for 'Mega-Ports' No Longer Guarantees Schedule Reliability
• International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 18/2026 | Phaata
• COSCO schedules: Vietnam - North America in May 2026
• COSCO updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in May 2026
• COSCO updates Vietnam-North Europe sailing schedules in May 2026
• COSCO updates sailing schedules of Vietnam - South America & Africa in May 2026
• COSCO updates sailing schedules of Vietnam-Middle East & Oceania in May 2026
• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in May 2026
• Adani Ports: Profits Surge Amid Early Warnings of a 2027 Slowdown
• Fuel Price Shock from Iran Tensions: Major Air Cargo Carriers Trigger Surcharges
• FMC Chair Pushes Alternatives to IMO's Net Zero Framework, Resolutely Blocking a 'Global Carbon Tax'
• Two Months of Hormuz Closure: A Mixed Picture for the Liquid Bulk Market
• China Launches World's Largest Electric Container Ship: A Decarbonization Milestone for the Maritime Industry
• Hapag-Lloyd Implements New Emergency Surcharge on Southern Europe Feeder Routes Amid Cost Pressures

Source: Phaata.com (According to Container News)

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