Container Rates 'Becalmed' as Shippers and Carriers Try to Hold Their Nerve

Container rates on U.S. trade lanes are sluggish as shippers and carriers alike nervously watch chaotic trade negotiations and an approaching tariff deadline that could once again completely upend supply chain calculations.

Freightos analysts noted that the past week saw a series of deals struck between the U.S. and several key trading partners, notably the European Union and Japan. These agreements have established a new benchmark with a 15% baseline U.S. tariff on most EU and Japanese exports. The U.S.-EU deal maintains this rate on automotive exports, which have already been subject to a 25% tariff since earlier this year. However, the finalized agreements brought some relief by de-escalating from previously threatened higher duties.

From a shipping perspective, these shifting dynamics have had noticeable impacts. Transatlantic ocean freight volumes were stable compared to 2024 levels through April, but the subsequent application of auto tariffs led to a 7% year-over-year drop in monthly volumes. Transatlantic container rates have flatlined at around $1,900 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit) since May.

The significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% in mid-May spurred an early peak season surge, as Asia to U.S. West Coast rates soared to $6,000/FEU by mid-June. The spike was short-lived, as rates had returned to their pre-surge levels of around $2,300/FEU by mid-July, where they have since stabilized as carriers adjusted capacity in response to softer demand.

Freightos also pointed to additional agreements being negotiated with other key U.S. trading nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. These preliminary deals, involving tariffs between 19% and 20%, reflect the Trump administration's broader strategy to anchor tariffs in the 15% to 20% range. Such moves could both stabilize and blur traditional shipping demand cycles as shippers adjust strategies to capitalize on tariff fluctuations.

China's extension of its pause on retaliatory tariffs acts as a signal for potentially sustained peak season demand. A further 90-day extension of the 30% baseline tariff through the end of peak season could encourage some importers to continue booking, though the overarching uncertainty may temper volume forecasts, Freightos said.

Price stability is also evident on Asia-North Europe routes, despite reports of discounting consistent with typical peak season demand dynamics and ongoing congestion at major European ports. Current rates have settled around $3,419/FEU, reflecting the cumulative impact of both demand spikes and a subsequent vessel overcapacity.

See more:

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• COMPASS LOGISTICS: Affirming our position as a strategic logistics partner with a comprehensive service platform
• Trans-Pacific Container Shipping Market: Differentiating Pricing Strategies Amidst a "Quiet" Situation

Source: Phaata.com (According to Freight Waves)

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