International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 30/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 30/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 30/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 30/2025

The Drewry WCI continued to decline for the sixth consecutive week, falling 3% to $2,517/FEU in week 30/2025 (July 21-July 28, 2025). The main reason was the sharp decline in demand for cargo transportation from Asia to the United States.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 30/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North America market in Week 30 (July 21-July 28, 2025) continued to consolidate its position as a "buyer's market". Stable demand at low levels and abundant capacity continued to put downward pressure on prices. However, a more complex picture is emerging as operational challenges, particularly congestion and bad weather in Asia, are starting to impact supply chain reliability.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: No breakthrough in August forecast

Demand forecast for August is similar to July, meaning it will be largely flat and without any significant growth. The early wave of imports in Q2 has largely met summer demand, making the traditional peak season “quieter”.

- On the Supply Side: Prolonged overcapacity and adjustments

The overcapacity situation continues. Although the planned August utilisation rate is expected to decrease slightly (to 75%-86% compared to 80%-90% in July), this level is still significantly higher than current demand. Overall, vessel space remains available.

Operational

Congestion persists in Southeast Asia: Congestion at transshipment ports in Malaysia and Singapore continues, causing delays of 3 to 5 days for services originating from the region.

Impact of adverse weather: Typhoons in South China and Southeast Asia are increasing disruptions, further challenging the reliability of vessel schedules at the origin port.

Container Situation

While overall container supply remains adequate, localized disruptions due to congestion and weather are causing temporary container shortages in some areas. Coordination and ensuring the right containers are available at the right time and place are becoming more challenging.

Freight Rates: 

Ocean Freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America continued to decline but at a slower pace, down 1.65% week-on-week to $2,206/FEU. This is down 33.53% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

Complete PSS Elimination: A key signal confirming that the market has cooled down is that the East Coast Peak Surcharge (PSS) will also be eliminated in August, following a similar move for the West Coast.

August GRI - A "Test": Several carriers have announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) for August 1. This is a "test" or "test balloon" for carriers. In the context of oversupply, shipping lines are trying to establish a new floor price and prevent further declines, instead of really expecting a sharp increase. The final prices will only be finalized closer to August 1, depending on the booking signal.

Comment:

At this stage, the biggest concern of importers is no longer "how much?" but "will the ship run on schedule?". Although freight rates are at a favorable level, the reliability of the supply chain is being challenged by factors at the port of departure. The market is still favorable for shippers in terms of costs. However, this opportunity comes with the requirement to manage operational risks more closely.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update in-depth and fast market developments.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 30/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 30 saw a sharp acceleration in US trade negotiations. The pressure from the approaching August 1 deadline has become an effective lever, forcing many countries to reach bilateral agreements. These developments show a clear pattern of US trade policy: using high proposed tariffs as a pressure tool to reach more favorable agreements, not only on tariffs but also on other strategic issues.

- A Series of Deals in Asia

A series of important partners in Asia reached agreements with the US in the past week:

Japan (US strategic partner):

On July 22, President Trump announced that a trade agreement with Japan had been reached.

Key provisions: Japan will face a 15% reciprocal tariff (down from the previously threatened 25%); $550 billion in investment in the US; and opening up markets for US cars, trucks, rice and other agricultural products. Tariffs on Japanese cars will also be reduced from 25% to 15%.

Comment: This is a far-reaching strategic agreement that goes beyond a simple tariff agreement. It shows the US is using trade leverage to secure both investment and market-opening commitments from key allies.

Philippines and Indonesia (ASEAN partners):

Philippines: Agreement reached with a 19% reciprocal tariff (down slightly from the threatened 20%).

Indonesia: Details of the agreement were released, setting a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods entering the US, and a 0% tariff on US goods entering Indonesia. More importantly, Indonesia has agreed to remove key non-tariff barriers (digital services tax, pre-shipment agricultural inspections, export controls on critical minerals, etc.).

Comment: These agreements demonstrate a clear pattern: the US uses tariffs as a tool to achieve broader goals, from removing non-tariff barriers to harmonizing technical standards.

- Updates on Other Major Trade Showdowns

China: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the current 30% effective tariff is likely to last beyond August 12.

Remarks: It is worth noting that he linked future negotiations to China’s oil imports from Russia and Iran, suggesting that US trade policy towards China is increasingly driven by geopolitical factors.

India: Talks are ongoing, with India seeking to reduce its 26% reciprocal tariffs and the 50% steel/aluminium tariffs that have already been announced.

- Other Tariffs Set to Come Into Effect

Copper: A 50% tariff on copper imports is confirmed to come into effect from August 1.

Other threats remain, including a 10% tariff on the BRICS bloc and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North Europe market in Week 30 (July 21 - July 28, 2025) has reached a new equilibrium, but a tense one. The rapid price increase has slowed down, but the high price level is still firmly maintained. The reason comes from the combination of strong demand supported by the European economic recovery and a supply system that has to "manage" to cope with prolonged disruptions from origin to destination.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: 

Market demand remains very solid and is forecast to continue to maintain high levels in August. The main driver comes from the recovery of the European economy, promoting inventory replenishment activities for the year-end shopping season.

- On the Supply Side: 

Data shows that the average weekly capacity in August increased slightly by 1.4% compared to July (to 324,000 TEU). However, this figure does not fully reflect the operating reality.

Different strategies of shipping lines: Ocean Alliance announced 6 blank sailings in August to manage capacity. Meanwhile, Maersk and MSC applied a different strategy: deploying smaller ships on some services. Phaata said that this is a very remarkable response. These shipping lines accept to sacrifice size per sailing in exchange for maintaining weekly departure schedules and avoiding cancellations, in the context of their larger ships being delayed due to congestion at European ports.

Persistent challenges at origin: Equipment shortages and weather disruptions (typhoons) in South China and Southeast Asia continue to challenge schedule reliability.

Tightening equipment and booking controls: This is the most obvious strategy. The Ocean Alliance (OA) and Premier Alliance (PA) are aggressively restricting container access to limit new bookings for Weeks 31 and 32, forcing the market to clear the backlog first. The window for picking up containers and bookings has been significantly narrowed.

Freight Rates:

The upward momentum in Asia to Europe freight rates in Week 30/2025 has stalled, with rates falling slightly by 0.23% week-on-week to $3,410/FEU. This is up 19.65% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

The tight balance between supply and demand has helped to underpin the high prices. The SCFI has been stable in the range of USD 2,030 – 2,100/TEU for the past four weeks. This suggests that the market has found a new equilibrium and the surge has ended.

August Forecast: Phaata expects rates to remain at current high levels or even increase slightly. High rates are being driven by a combination of factors: limited supply due to operational issues, strong demand, shortages of space and equipment at origin, and congestion and customs delays at major European ports. Some carriers have already started to raise their August offers by around 10% to gauge the market reaction.

Comment:

The Asia-North Europe market has proven resilient. The current high rates are not a short-term spike, but are sustained by a real demand base and, more importantly, a supply chain affected by congestion.

The use of smaller vessels is a smart stopgap solution to maintain service, but it also shows that shipping lines expect congestion at European ports to be a long-term problem.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 30/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in the week of 30/2025 continued to decrease by 1.09% to USD 634/FEU. This price is the same as the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 30/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rates from North Europe to Asia in the week of 30/2025 continued to decrease slightly by 0.85% to USD 234/FEU. This price is down 15.83% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 30/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market Week 30/2025 has revealed a complex picture, shaped by a new era of “trade diplomacy”. There is no longer a common global trend; instead, we are witnessing completely different operating realities and pricing strategies on the main routes, all of which are dominated by a calculated trade policy playing field led by the United States.

Asia - North America: Has entered a stable low-price market phase. The advantage is clearly with the buyers. However, the main risk has shifted from price to schedule reliability due to increasing operational issues at Asian ports of origin (congestion, weather).

Asia - Europe: Has reached a state of “tense equilibrium” at high prices. The market is driven by solid demand in the face of a constantly disrupted supply chain and sophisticated capacity management strategies by shipping lines (cancelling sailings, using smaller vessels).

More importantly than operational developments, Week 30 has clearly demonstrated a new "rule of the game" in US trade policy. The "negotiation under pressure" strategy has proven effective, as the US has continuously reached bilateral agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia. The model is clear: impose a high threat of tariffs to force countries to the negotiating table, thereby achieving goals not only on tariffs but also on market access, investment and other strategic issues.

In this context, proposed tariffs become an effective negotiating tool for the US. Countries, including Vietnam, are under pressure to join this "game" to reshape their trade relationship with the US.

Recommendations from Phaata

This phase requires a sense of urgency and a strategy that is “tailored” to each market and each specific risk.

1. Apply a “Market-Based” Strategy:

North America: Optimize costs but manage operational risks. Continue to take advantage of the low-rate environment to negotiate. However, the top priority now is to manage the risk of disruption at the origin. Work closely with logistics partners to have contingency plans for delays due to congestion or weather in Asia.

Europe: Prioritize continuity and flexibility. Accept that higher prices are the “new normal” for the peak season. Evaluate service options not only based on price, but also based on each carrier’s operational strategy (e.g., the risk of cancellations with Ocean Alliance versus using smaller vessels with Maersk/MSC).

2. Risk management and continuity

The strategy here is risk management and continuity. The top priority is strategic partnerships with service providers that can guarantee stable space and equipment supply.

Planning for August: The "psychological battle" for August bookings has begun. Share production forecasts clearly and as early as possible with partners so that they have a basis to reserve space for you before the market has new fluctuations.

3. Build a "Battle Scenario" for Tariff Risk:

The August 1 deadline is approaching. For Vietnamese businesses, assessing the impact of the 20% tax rate is the most urgent task. It is necessary to recalculate costs, renegotiate with buyers and reassess competitiveness.

For businesses with global supply chains, it is necessary to review the impact of the proposed tariffs for 22 countries and the BRICS bloc to have a response plan.

4. Enhance Adaptability:

Phaata believes that competitive advantage in the new era lies not only in cost, but also in the adaptability and resilience of the supply chain. Build contingency plans, and create a flexible corporate culture, ready for unpredictable changes.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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See more:

• CMA CGM Reflags Vessel, Creating the Largest U.S.-Flagged Containership
• COSCO schedules: Vietnam - North America in Aug 2025
• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Aug 2025
• Global air freight rates continue to plunge in June
• COMPASS LOGISTICS: Affirming our position as a strategic logistics partner with a comprehensive service platform
• Trans-Pacific Container Shipping Market: Differentiating Pricing Strategies Amidst a "Quiet" Situation

Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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