Drewry predicts new normal for global container rates

Container ship (Image: Freepik / Phaata)

Although ocean container shipping rates have fallen significantly from their pandemic peaks, they remain higher than before the pandemic. This could mark a “new normal” in container shipping costs, with spillover effects for road transport, intermodal and related logistics services globally, industry experts say.

The latest Drewry World Container Index shows the composite index down 7%, currently at $2,368 per 40-foot container. This is the lowest level since January 2024, a sharp 77% decline from the pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021. However, despite the sharp decline, the current price is still 67% higher than the pre-pandemic average of $1,420 in 2019.

The year-to-date average is $3,205 per 40-foot container, higher than the 10-year average of $2,884. However, it should be noted that this long-term average has been pushed up significantly due to the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020-2022 period.

Price movements by shipping lane

Data from the Drewry index shows different trends on each shipping lane:

Shanghai - Genoa (Italy): Down 11% ($412) to $3,333/40-foot container.

Shanghai - Los Angeles: Down 8% ($260) to $2,906.

Shanghai - New York: Down 7% ($282) to $4,038.

Shanghai - Rotterdam (Netherlands): Down 5% ($124) to $2,512.

Meanwhile, some routes saw slight increases, including:

Rotterdam - Shanghai: Up 1% to $490.

New York - Rotterdam: Up 1% to $854.

Rotterdam - New York: Up 1% to $2,373 per 40-foot container.

The port of Rotterdam - the world's 10th busiest - has been facing severe congestion in recent weeks.

Drewry also noted that rates on the Los Angeles - Shanghai route have remained stable during this period.

Short-term outlook

Drewry experts expect rates to continue to decline in the coming weeks. This forecast is largely based on expectations of increased container capacity, which could further reduce rates on many routes. Factors contributing to this trend include the introduction of new vessels and the possibility of major carriers returning to the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Freight Waves)

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