International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 28/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 28/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 28/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 28/2025

The Drewry WCI continued to decline sharply for the fourth consecutive week, falling 5% to $2,672/FEU in week 28/2025 (from July 7 to July 13, 2025). The main reason was the sharp decline in demand for cargo transportation from Asia to the United States.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 28/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

Week 28/2025, the second week of Q3, continued to witness a clear cooling on the Asia-West Coast of North America route. The "fever" caused by tariff factors has completely ended, giving way to a new reality where abundant capacity supply is outperforming flat demand. This not only puts pressure on continuous price reductions but also creates an extremely favorable negotiation environment for shippers/import-export businesses.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: July demand "quiet"

Forecasts show that demand in July will be largely flat and there will be no sudden growth. The wave of early shipments in Q2 has withdrawn a large amount of demand from the summer months. Instead of a vibrant peak season, we are witnessing a market with stable but not high demand.

- On the Supply Side: Excess and cautious management strategies of shipping lines

Obvious excess capacity: With operating capacity maintained at a high level, from 84% - 91%, while demand has not increased, the excess supply is the main reason for the decline in freight rates.

Flexible Capacity Management: The current blank sailings are ad-hoc rather than large-scale cuts. Phaata believes that this is a prudent management strategy by shipping lines. Instead of overreacting by cutting services across the board, which could impact market share, they are accepting a temporary period of low prices to maintain their service networks and waiting for clearer demand signals for the real peak period at the end of Q3 (back to school, holiday goods).

Container Situation

Container supply at most ports of origin remains abundant, with no reports of shortages. This further reinforces the picture of a market with excess supply capacity.

Freight Rates: A Big Advantage for Shippers

This supply-demand gap is clearly reflected in freight rate developments. Ocean Freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America continued to decline sharply by 9.39% week-on-week to $2,392/FEU in the week of 28/2025. This is down 55.05% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

West Coast: Floating rates have not only continued to decline but are now at or even below fixed rates under long-term contracts. The complete removal of the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for July 1 is the strongest confirmation of weakening demand pressures.

East Coast & Gulf: Floating rates have also declined but remain above fixed rates under contracts. Similarly, PSS here, although reduced, is still in effect. This shows that the East Coast market is still a bit "firmer", partly due to factors such as transit time and importers' choices.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update market developments quickly.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 28/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

The global trade environment has moved from a state of "uncertainty" to a "clearly complex and risky" phase. In Week 28, the US administration issued a series of statements and decrees, reshaping the trade playing field with a multi-layered strategy: short-term extensions to buy more time, announcing specific tariffs for each country, targeting strategic blocs, and tightening non-tariff regulations.

- Reciprocal Tariff Suspension Briefly Extended to August 1

Event: On July 7, President Trump issued an executive order, moving the end date of the country-by-country reciprocal tariff suspension from July 9 to August 1.

Phaata noted that this is just a “brief calm before the storm.” The extension does not change the intention to impose tariffs, but only gives the parties three more weeks to prepare or complete final negotiations. Businesses should not view this as a signal of relaxation.

- New Tariff Roadmap Announced Through "Tariff Letters"

This is a very special way of announcing policy and shows the White House's strong intentions.

President Trump posted a series of "tariff letters" on the social network Truth Social, outlining proposed reciprocal tariffs for 22 countries, with more announcements expected. These tariffs are expected to take effect on August 1, pending official confirmation.

Key principles:

• "Tit-for-tat" policy: If any country increases tariffs on US goods, the US will increase reciprocal tariffs by an equivalent amount.
• Anti-circumvention provisions: Goods in transit to avoid a higher tariff will be subject to that higher tariff.

- New Tariff Threats

A series of announcements targeting specific targets were made:

Vietnam: Reaffirms July 2 announcement of a 20% reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese goods, along with a 40% tariff on goods in transit.
BRICS: President Trump announces plans to impose a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and others). The 10% tariff will be added on top of other existing tariffs.
Pharmaceuticals: Signals that tariffs of up to 200% are possible, but will give drugmakers at least a year to relocate operations to the United States.
Copper: Announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper metal that will take effect on August 1.

- Tightening De Minimis Monitoring

Key Operational Change: As of July 9, all FDA-regulated de minimis duty-free shipments (e.g. cosmetics, dietary supplements, certain foods) are now required to undergo FDA review and Partner Government Agency (PGA) data reporting.

Expert Analysis: This is a significant non-tariff barrier that will slow down customs clearance times and increase compliance costs for e-commerce businesses in these sectors. Also, remember that the “Big Beautiful Bill” signed into law last week will completely end de minimis exemptions for all countries by July 2027.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North Europe market in Week 28/2025 is operating in a state of high tension. The rapid price increase has slowed down, but has been replaced by a drastic capacity management strategy from shipping lines to protect the high price levels that have been achieved. Operational issues have not only not been resolved but have become more complicated due to these regulatory moves, and the market is paying attention to the signals for August.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: Stable demand

Demand is recovering steadily and following the normal seasonal pattern. Transport volume usually increases gradually from April to August, with the peak concentrated in July and August to serve the end-of-year holiday shopping season in Europe.

Data shows that export values to Europe have consistently exceeded the same period last year since March.

This suggests that overall demand remains stable and suggests that the current market tension is almost entirely a supply-side story.

- On the Supply Side: Aggressive Capacity Regulation Strategy

Significant Capacity Cuts: Carriers have made significant overall capacity cuts for Week 29, directly impacting recent bookings.

Operational Implications: This tightening of supply has had two immediate negative consequences for shippers:

Increased Rollovers: The backlog from late June is expected to take 2-3 weeks to clear.

Tight Space Control: Carriers are controlling the release of containers within “limited time frames”, further disrupting the efficiency of loading and transport.

Freight Rates:

Asia to Europe freight rates for the week of 28/2025 showed a significant slowdown compared to previous weeks, increasing only slightly by 1.04% week-on-week to $3,385/FEU. This represents a 41.16% increase month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

Phaata forecasts that the July freight market will largely remain at the high levels of early July until the end of the month. This is because most of the sailings to the end of July are fully booked.

August Caution: Carriers are being cautious about making price moves for August. This is because the large volume of cargo for early August has not yet been booked by shippers. The actual bookings at the end of July will be the key factor in determining the price trend for early August. If bookings are weak, prices may decline. If bookings are strong, shipping lines will have a basis to maintain or increase prices.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace to quickly update market developments.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 28/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 28/2025 increased by 5.54% to 648 USD/FEU. This price increased by 1.57% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 28/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia in week 28/2025 reversed sharply to increase by 10.19% to 238 USD/FEU. This price decreased by 8.81% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 28/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 28/2025 has shown a clearly “polarized” and uncertain picture. There is no longer a common global trend; instead, businesses are navigating two completely opposite operating realities, all overshadowed by a risky new trade policy “game” from the United States.

Asia - North America route: Has become a complete “buyer’s market”. The wave of early imports has ended, leaving a large demand gap in July. Overcapacity is pushing spot rates down (down more than 9% for the West Coast this week), even below contract rates.

Asia - Europe route: In contrast, this route has reached a state of “high stress”. The rapid price increase has slowed down, but rates remain at very high levels. Shipping lines are actively tightening supply to protect this price level while the market is "holding its breath" waiting for booking signals for August.

The New Trade Policy "Game": On top of these two contrasting operational realities is a completely new and unpredictable trade policy "game" from the US. The short-term extension of the tariff suspension until August 1 is just a delay, not a cancellation. The announcement of a series of proposed reciprocal tariffs through "tariff letters" and warnings aimed at specific subjects (Vietnam, BRICS, pharmaceuticals, copper) shows a fierce and unpredictable bilateral pressure strategy.

Warning Signals From Secondary Lines: The sharp increase in freight rates on both backhaul routes from North America and Northern Europe to Asia this week is a very important early indicator. This shows that the pressure to reposition empty containers to Asia is increasing, perhaps to prepare for the peak season at the end of the year or to serve the scarce European route.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires a sense of acumen and a strategy "tailored" for each market, each specific risk.

1. Make the Most of the Tax Deferral Period in the North American Market:

This is a golden time for shippers/import-export businesses to proactively negotiate. With spot prices at very low levels, do not accept the first quote. Actively work with logistics partners to get the best price for shipments in Q3.

Re-evaluate the transportation plan: Reconsider the total cost of going directly to the East Coast versus going to the West Coast and then transporting inland by rail.

2. Risk management and continuity

The strategy here is risk management and continuity. The top priority is strategic partnerships with service providers that can guarantee stable space and equipment supply.

Planning for August: The "psychological battle" for August bookings has begun. Share production forecasts clearly and as early as possible with partners so that they have a basis to reserve space for you before the market has new fluctuations.

3. Build a "Battle Scenario" for Tariff Risk:

The August 1 deadline is approaching. For Vietnamese businesses, assessing the impact of the 20% tax rate is the most urgent task. It is necessary to recalculate costs, renegotiate with buyers and reassess competitiveness.

For businesses with global supply chains, it is necessary to review the impact of the proposed tariffs for 22 countries and the BRICS bloc to have a response plan.

4. Enhance Adaptability:

Phaata believes that competitive advantage in the new era lies not only in cost, but also in the adaptability and resilience of the supply chain. Build contingency plans, and create a flexible corporate culture, ready for unpredictable changes.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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