International Transport and Logistics Market Update Week 43/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 43/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 43/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 43/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) in week 43/2025 (from Oct 20 to Oct 26, 2025) continued to rise, increasing by 3% from the previous week to $1,746/FEU.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 43/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 43 (Oct 20-26, 2025) is operating within a major paradox: underlying demand remains weak, yet spot rates are surging. This is not a signal of a market recovery. Instead, it is a clear demonstration that carriers, through an aggressive post-Golden Week capacity tightening strategy, have successfully created a space scarcity and regained pricing power in the short term.

Supply and demand:

- Demand: Overall demand remains flat. Carriers are closely monitoring the market's reaction to new proposed tariffs on China, but no changes in booking behavior have been observed yet.

- Supply: The "Capacity Shock" is at its Peak and Nearing its End Deployed capacity is at its lowest point, at only 60-70%, and will remain so until the end of October. This is a direct consequence of the wave of post-Golden Week blank sailings. However, this is only a short-term shock. The plan for a strong capacity recovery back to over 80% in November indicates that an overcapacity situation is likely to return quickly.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

A notable operational development is the increase in cargo rollovers related to the post-holiday blank sailings. This is a deliberate tactic by the carriers. The lines planned to accept more bookings than the actual capacity on the final sailings before the holiday. The goal is to ensure the first sailings after the holiday are full, helping them to hold rates and stabilize the market during a period of weak demand.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 43/2025 continued to rise sharply by 19.83% compared to the previous week, to $2,069/FEU. This rate is up 10.58% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The October 15 General Rate Increase (GRI) has been successfully implemented and is holding firm. The SCFI index also surged by 31.9% for the West Coast and 16.4% for the East Coast, perfectly corresponding to the imposed GRI.

Phaata believes this is a tactical victory for the carriers, who have made the most of the capacity "bottleneck" period to halt the rate slide and establish a new price floor.

Conversely, carriers continue to postpone the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) to November. Phaata sees this as the clearest possible signal of the market's long-term weakness. Carriers may have recognized that there is no real peak season to sustain a high surcharge.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 43/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 43 (Oct 20-26, 2025) is being shaped by two main developments: a U.S.-China trade showdown at a level of extreme tension with radical escalation threats, and the formalization of a series of complex tariff rules, particularly for the North American automotive supply chain. Against this backdrop, the cash flow crisis caused by the U.S. government shutdown is becoming an extremely dangerous financial headwind for importers.

1- This Week's Focus: A High-Stakes "Poker Game" Ahead of the APEC Forum

This is the biggest and most potentially impactful element of uncertainty.

On October 21, President Trump confirmed that the tariff rate on Chinese goods could increase to a total of 155% on November 1 if a deal is not reached.

Phaata sees this as a classic negotiation tactic to maximize pressure. President Trump's contradictory statements (both threatening and expressing hope for a "fair deal") are a clear sign of this.

Whether China lifts its export controls on rare earth magnets will be the deciding factor.

While high-level talks remain up in the air, one concrete action has been set: the U.S. will apply 100% tariffs on certain Chinese shore cranes and cargo handling equipment from November 9.

2- Heavy-Duty Truck Tariffs "Codified" (Effective Nov 1)

President Trump has issued a proclamation, formally imposing a 25% tariff on medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) and their parts from November 1.

The key and most complex point lies in the rule for USMCA-compliant goods. Accordingly, importers may only need to pay the 25% tariff on the non-North American value portion of the vehicle.

This rule creates a massive compliance burden. Importers are now required to obtain extremely detailed data from their supply chains on the localization rate of each vehicle to file customs declarations accurately.

3- Pressure Expands to New Partners

The pressure campaign continues to expand, this time targeting South American countries.

New tariff threats against Colombia and Nicaragua (potentially up to 100%) show that U.S. trade policy is increasingly being used as a foreign policy and punitive tool.

4- The Financial "Headwind" - Cash Flow Crisis from Government Shutdown

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week. CBP has confirmed it continues to not issue any duty refunds.

This is no longer a minor inconvenience. It has become a real cash flow crisis for importers, especially those awaiting large refunds from previous policy changes. Having this source of working capital frozen amidst rising costs from all sides is a heavy blow.

Overall Assessment: The trade environment is now showing immense and intractable complexity, comprising top-level geopolitical showdowns, increasingly sophisticated compliance rules, and financial/operational barriers caused by U.S. internal political issues.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 43 (Oct 20-26, 2025) is in a state of "fragile equilibrium." Although underlying demand remains weak after the Golden Week holiday, carriers are demonstrating high discipline in managing capacity, preventing a price collapse. The end of this year will be a "battle of wits" between the carriers' efforts to hold rates and the reality of high inventory levels and cautious consumer sentiment in Europe.

On supply and demand: 

- Demand: Real demand from Asia to Europe remains soft after the Golden Week holiday. Phaata believes the cause is high inventory levels and cautious consumer sentiment in Europe, which continue to hold back new orders. Although industrial and project cargo segments provide some stability, overall booking momentum is lower than typical seasonal patterns.

- Supply: Facing the harsh reality that the global fleet has grown by nearly 5% year-on-year (according to Alphaliner) while demand has weakened, the major alliances are deploying an aggressive defensive strategy through blank sailings and service cuts. The carriers' goal is very clear: to deal with the space surplus and protect freight rates. Despite these measures, overall supply on the Asia-North Europe trade remains adequate.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

The shortage of 40' containers in South China is noted as tight but manageable. This is a local operational risk that exporters in the region should be aware of. Although strikes have paused, their effects will be long-lasting. The massive backlog could take until the end of October to clear, and it will take several weeks for all transport operations to return to normal. This disruption is cascading, affecting major trade corridors in Germany, France, and Central Europe.

Extended Blank Sailing Program: The current blank sailing program will continue to impact supply, with a 10% capacity cut per week in Weeks 42 and 43. More importantly, a new blank sailing program for November has been announced, primarily in the first half of the month (a 20% capacity cut in Week 45 and 4% in Week 46). Carriers are determined to act preemptively to prevent a price collapse in Q4. They are willing to sacrifice volume to protect rates and have warned that more blank sailings will follow if the market does not accept the new rate levels.

Freight Rate Developments: 

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 43/2025 reversed course to fall slightly after a very sharp increase last week, dropping 1.11% to $1,942/FEU. This rate is up 1.36% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Major carriers have increased FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates for the second half of October and have officially announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) for November.

Load factors over the past two weeks have only hovered around 80-85%. From our observation and experience, we believe this is not a terrible number, but it shows that pressure remains and that the carriers' rate support measures have not been fully effective.

Phaata forecasts the market will remain steady in November, mainly due to the carriers' capacity management measures. The carriers' focus right now is on optimizing vessel utilization rather than competing on price.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 43/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 43/2025 rose sharply by 7.12% from the previous week, to $662/FEU. This rate is down 1.80% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 43/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 43/2025 continued to fall by 2.83%, down to $151/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is down 15.98% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 43/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 43/2025 is in an unsustainable state of "fever pitch," driven by chaos rather than by the health of the economy. Every indicator points to an absurdity: underlying demand on both major trades is weak, yet rates are either rising or being held at high levels. This shows the market is being dominated by three main factors:

The Power of Capacity Discipline: Carriers have demonstrated their ability to "bend the laws of supply and demand" in the short term. On both the North America and North Europe trades, they have successfully created an artificial space scarcity through aggressive and disciplined blank sailings, thereby regaining pricing power.

Widespread Operational Crisis: Problems in Europe (congestion, strike impacts) and disruptions in Asia (typhoons) are no longer isolated incidents but have become an inherent factor, reducing the effective efficiency of the supply chain and inadvertently "helping" carriers to tighten supply.

The Specter of Geopolitics and a Cash Flow Crisis: The U.S.-China "poker game" is at its highest stakes, with the 155% tariff threat creating immeasurable uncertainty. At the same time, new tariff rules (like the truck tariff) and the cash flow crisis from the U.S. government shutdown are creating enormous financial and compliance burdens for businesses.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires a clear head to avoid getting caught up in the "artificial fever," while also taking decisive action to manage real risks.

1. Don't Be Fooled by the Rate "Fever" - Look at the Fundamentals:

Shippers should not panic and rush to lock in long-term contracts at high rates. The current price increase is built on a very fragile foundation (weak demand).

For non-urgent shipments, wait until November. With capacity expected to recover strongly on the U.S. trade, the market is very likely to soften again.

2. Take Urgent Action for Year-End Cargo:

In the short term (next 2-3 weeks), the market will be short on space. Businesses with critical cargo for the year-end holiday season must accept the current high rate levels and work continuously with logistics partners to secure space. The priority right now is to ensure supply chain continuity.

3. Comprehensive Risk Management - From Operations to Finance:

Cash Flow Crisis: This is the silent but most dangerous risk. U.S. importers waiting for refunds from CBP should immediately build financial scenarios that do not include this cash source.

New Tariff Compliance: The truck tariff rules (effective Nov 1) require preparation now. U.S. importers should urgently work with suppliers to gather detailed data on localization rates to prepare for the new, complex declaration process.

4. Build a Plan for the "Tidal Wave" Tariff Scenario:

The risk of the U.S. imposing a 155% tariff on Chinese goods. U.S. businesses with supply chains dependent on China must treat this as a scenario that requires contingency planning, including accelerating the search for alternative sourcing and renegotiating with customers.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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