International Transport and Logistics Market Update Week 45/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 45/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 45/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 45/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) in week 45/2025 (from Nov 3 to Nov 9, 2025) continued to rise sharply by 8% from the previous week, to $1,959/FEU. This is the fourth consecutive week of increases, following a protracted 17-week losing streak.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 45/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 45 (Nov 3-9, 2025) witnessed the rapid collapse of the early-month rate hike attempt. The tactical victory carriers achieved in October (by tightening capacity) proved unsustainable once real capacity returned to the market. The demand we observed in early November was not a sustainable recovery, but merely the "after-echo" of a tariff-fearing, front-loading wave. Now, the supply-demand balance has once again tilted firmly in favor of importers.

Supply and demand:

- Demand: Unsustainable Demand The nature of the demand in early November was not an economic recovery. It was backlog cargo from late October, driven by a wave of front-loading to dodge anticipated tariff hikes. Therefore, this was only a short-term and unsustainable bump, not reflective of real market purchasing power. US West Coast (USWC) utilization was higher, as it was the preferred choice for "tariff-racing" shipments needing fast transit times. US East Coast (USEC) routes, with their longer transit times, were less prioritized.

- Supply: Capacity Returns This is the key factor this week. After being squeezed to 60-70% in October, deployed capacity in November has recovered strongly, with an increase of 10-15% at all U.S. gateways. Total capacity is expected to remain at 83-88% throughout November, returning the market to a state of overcapacity relative to real demand.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

A notable operational development is the increase in cargo rollovers related to the post-holiday blank sailings. This is a deliberate tactic by the carriers. The lines planned to accept more bookings than the actual capacity on the final sailings before the holiday. The goal is to ensure the first sailings after the holiday are full, helping them to hold rates and stabilize the market during a period of weak demand.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 45/2025 continued to rise very sharply by 32.11% compared to the previous week, to $2,777/FEU. This rate is up 86.79% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The November 1 General Rate Increase (GRI) was successfully implemented and is holding. This shows that the carriers' capacity management discipline was effective.

However, the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) was once again postponed, this time to December 1. This confirms that there is no real peak season.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 45/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 45/2025 brought short-term stability (U.S.-China) but opened up long-term legal uncertainty (the IEEPA lawsuit). The U.S. trade model has been clearly established: it is transactional, bilateral, investment-focused, and uses tariffs as a flexible, strategic tool.

1- The Biggest Focus: The U.S.-China Trade "Truce" and Its Supply Chain Implications

The summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping delivered a strategic "win-win" outcome, allowing both sides to de-escalate tensions.

Key U.S. Concessions:

• Tariff Reduction: Reduced the "fentanyl" tariff on China from 20% to 10% (effective Nov 10), bringing the total effective tariff rate down to ~45%.

• Extension: Extended the 10% reciprocal tariff and key Section 301 tariff exclusions to November 10, 2026.

• Fee Suspension: Suspended the recently imposed port fees on Chinese vessels for 1 year.

Key Chinese Concessions:

• Strategic (Rare Earths): Suspended rare earth export controls, in effect removing the barriers imposed in 2022 and 2025. This is a major win for U.S. high-tech and defense sectors.

• Commercial (Agriculture): Committed to purchasing a massive volume of U.S. soybeans (12 million tons in the last 2 months of 2025 and 25 million tons/year thereafter).

• Fee Suspension: Suspended retaliatory tariffs and port fees on U.S. vessels.

Assessment: This is a classic transactional "truce," not a lasting peace. It gives the global supply chain a valuable 12-month window of stability, removing the short-term risk of escalating tariffs. However, core issues (like semiconductors) remain unresolved, showing the strategic game continues.

2- The Biggest Legal Battle: The Future of $90 Billion in IEEPA Tariffs

Supreme Court heard arguments on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs (reciprocal and "fentanyl" tariffs).

These tariffs were declared illegal by lower courts but are still being collected due to a stay.

The Big Concerns:

• The Justices aggressively challenged the administration's arguments, showing the case is being taken very seriously.

• The concern over the "mess" of refunding over $90 billion in collected duties is a real-world issue being weighed.

Assessment: This is the single biggest financial and legal risk for importers. Businesses are in a dilemma: forced to pay the tariffs now, but simultaneously must prepare for a scenario of receiving refunds in the future. Furthermore, even if the administration loses, it may find ways to re-impose these tariffs via other statutes (like Sec 301 or 232).

3- The New Trade "Order":

Other developments this week show U.S. trade policy being executed aggressively:

• "Investment-for-Access" Model: Deals with South Korea (tariffs cut to 15% in exchange for $20B/year investment) and ASEAN (tariffs kept, but in exchange for removing non-tariff barriers) clearly show the U.S. strategy: using its market access as leverage to attract investment and boost exports.

• Truck Tariffs (MHDV) Officially in Effect (Nov 1): The 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks is now active. The provision allowing USMCA-compliant importers to pay duty only on the non-North American value portion is a massive accounting and traceability challenge, requiring an extremely high level of data granularity.

• CBP Modernization: Updates to ACE Portal automation and PMS e-payments are necessary steps for modernization, but also require businesses to adapt technologically.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 45 (Nov 3-9, 2025) is in a state of "artificial" tension. While real import demand in Europe remains very weak, shippers are facing what feels like a tight market. The root cause of this paradox is not on the demand side, but an operational crisis at destination ports. Severe congestion is "indirectly" tightening available capacity, and this is the only factor propping up rates.

On supply and demand: 

Demand: European import demand remains "sluggish" heading into the typically quiet winter months.

• Root Cause: Inflation and high inventory levels continue to suppress new orders from European importers.

• Key Data Point: Carrier vessel utilization is currently hovering at just over 85%. With 20 years of experience, I can confirm this figure is lower than normal for November, clear proof that real demand is very weak.

Supply: While carriers are still grappling with nominal overcapacity, practical capacity is being severely squeezed.

• Congestion at North European ports remains a critical problem. Major ports are all reporting delays of 3-5 days. Rotterdam, in particular, is at a crisis level with container dwell times over 9 days and yard utilization exceeding 90%.

• This operational inefficiency has effectively wiped out 25-30% of round-voyage frequency. This means that while there are many ships on paper, the number of vessels that can actually cycle back to Asia to load on time has been significantly reduced.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

The inevitable consequence of late vessel returns is that major loading ports in Asia are running low on empty containers.

• Equipment shortages have been reported in Shanghai and Ningbo, as well as at feeder ports. The inventory situation for many carriers is "tight."

• A new blank sailing program for November has been announced, primarily in the first half of the month (a 20% capacity cut in Week 45 and 4% in Week 46).

Freight Rate Developments: 

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 45/2025 rose sharply by 16.66% to $2,260/FEU. This rate is up 39.98% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

However, this is an unsustainable rate hike. The increase is supported by two factors: (1) carriers' blank sailing discipline and (2) the unintended capacity crunch from congestion. It is not at all driven by real demand growth.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 45/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 45/2025 continued its slight decline, falling 3.29% from the previous week to $634/FEU. This rate is down 1.52% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 45/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 45/2025 fell sharply by 18.95% to $123/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is down 26.62% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 45/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 45/2025 is being dominated by an extreme paradox: global rates are rising sharply, but not due to economic health. Instead, it's due to the combination of two separate operational crises.

• Asia - North America (TPEB): Rates soared (Xeneta up +32% WoW) as the result of a tactical victory for the carriers. Although capacity has returned, the "after-echo" from the October capacity crunch and "tariff-racing" bookings allowed them to successfully implement the Nov 1 GRI. However, this is an "artificial" and very fragile price hike.

• Asia - Europe (FEWB): Rates also jumped (+16.66%) but for a much worse reason: a systemic operational crisis. Severe port congestion (Rotterdam 9-day waits) is cutting vessel round-trip frequency by 25-30%, causing equipment shortages in Asia. This is the worst-case scenario for shippers: paying more for a slower, less reliable service.

The biggest event of the week was the 12-month trade "truce" between the U.S. and China. The removal of the catastrophic tariff risk, the reduction of the "fentanyl" tariff, the suspension of port fees, and China's resumption of agricultural purchases is an extremely important macro-stabilizing factor, providing a valuable window for planning.

While the China news brings stability, other policies reveal the new trade "order": the "investment-for-access" model (as with South Korea and ASEAN) and massive compliance burdens (like the USMCA truck tariff effective Nov 1) have become the "new normal."

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires a clear head to avoid getting caught up in the "artificial fever," while also taking decisive action to manage real risks.

This period requires a multi-dimensional strategy: responding to short-term operational crises while simultaneously leveraging the geopolitical "pause" for long-term restructuring.

1- Leverage the 12-Month China Window (Strategic Priority):

This is the most important recommendation. The 12-month stability with China is a golden opportunity. Businesses should use this period to plan transport for 2026. However, do not, under any circumstances, stop "China Plus One" diversification efforts. This is a truce, not a peace treaty.

2- Apply a "Two-Scenario" Strategy for the Two Major Trades (Immediate Action):

For the European Market: Accept the reality of an operational crisis. The top priority is securing space and equipment. Factor in extra transit time and budget for the higher rate levels.

For the North American Market: Underlying demand is weak and capacity is plentiful (83-88%). Rates are likely to "soften" again quickly. Be cautious, avoid locking in long-term contracts at this high level, and wait for the market to correct.

3- Take Urgent Action on Tariff Compliance:

Truck Tariffs (MHDV) are now in effect (Nov 1). Businesses in the U.S. automotive supply chain must operate under the new rules. Processes and data must be in place to declare the non-North American value portion to avoid being assessed the 25% tariff on the entire value.

4- Plan for the IEEPA Legal Risk/Opportunity:

U.S. importers have an opportunity to have their IEEPA tariffs refunded. Businesses should begin working with legal and customs consultants now to audit all IEEPA duties paid and prepare refund claims.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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