Ocean Freight Rates Forecast to Fall in 2025

On August 5, the EC2408 (August contract) index closed at 5,627 points, while the EC2410 (October contract) closed at 3,585 points, down 3% and 9% respectively from July 29. The EC2504 (April 2025 contract) closed at 1,961 points, while the EC2506 (June 2025 contract) closed at 1,955 points, down 5% and 6% respectively from July 29.

On August 2, the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) showed that Shanghai-Northern Europe freight rates fell 2% week-on-week to $4,907 per TEU, although this was significantly higher than the $947 per TEU a year ago.

Short-term contracts led the decline last week before longer-term contracts were hit by concerns about a U.S. recession, Linerlytica reported on Aug. 6.

Container Freight Index Futures began trading last August through the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, a unit of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Paper trades are conducted by shippers, forwarders and shipping lines.

Trading volume is shifting from EC2410 to later contracts, with EC2504 attracting the most market attention.

“Based on the EC2408 and EC2410 latest closing prices, the futures market is pricing in a 4.46% decline each week in the next three weeks to the end of August, to be followed by a 4.49% decline each week in the following nine weeks to the end of October. Rates are expected to continue to fall through 2025, with current EC2506 rates trading at a 68% discount to the SCFIS (Shanghai Containerised Freight Index based on Settled Rates). Sentiment has turned negative despite the rates holding up much better than the Asia-US West Coast and Asia-Mediterranean rates, with carriers’ rate quotations starting to drop in a further indication that rates have peaked.”

Linerlytica said that while futures rates continue to weaken, carriers remain in a strong position as total capacity to Northern Europe remains constrained with the 13-week moving average still down 3.4% year-on-year despite recent new capacity additions.

Actual sailings from Asia remain volatile with port congestion and weather delays causing significant capacity reductions

Source: Phaata.com (via Container-News)

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