Record Container Ship Orderbook: Is the Specter of an Overcapacity Crisis Returning?

Building a new container ship (Photo: TradeWinds / Phaata)

The global container shipping industry is facing a major concern as the newbuild orderbook has reached a record 10.4 million TEU. According to data from Asian maritime consultancy Linerlytica, the orderbook-to-fleet ratio has surged to 31.7% – the highest level since 2010.

In a recent report, Linerlytica issued a stark warning: "The last time the ratio crossed a similar threshold was during the 2004-2009 period, and the consequence was a decade-long supply glut." Linerlytica's analysts also emphasized that more than 1 million TEU from pending orders are expected to be added to the market before the end of this year, further increasing supply pressure.

The 10.4 million TEU figure published by Linerlytica is higher than data from other providers. Specifically, Clarksons Research and Alphaliner both record the orderbook at a similar level, around 9.87 million TEU. However, Clarksons also noted that contracting activity for new container ships has remained very active this year, double the 10-year average, with 275 vessels already ordered.

This massive orderbook has led Linerlytica to forecast that the container shipping industry will face a severe supply/demand imbalance until the end of the decade. "Containership fleet growth will continue to outpace demand growth, with excess supply projected to persist through 2029," Linerlytica stated.

To further illustrate this disparity, data from the freight rate platform Xeneta shows that, using a baseline of 100 points in 2019, the global fleet size has now reached 145 points. Meanwhile, over the same period, global container demand has only increased from 100 points to 113.

Even when accounting for the impact of rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope (due to events in the Red Sea) through the TEU-miles index (which measures cargo volume over distance), demand has only risen to 130 points – still significantly lower than the growth in supply.

"Carriers face an immense challenge in preventing freight rates from falling further against this backdrop of significant overcapacity in the global fleet," Xeneta concluded in its report.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Splash247)

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