Thursday, 22/12/2022, 13:07 (GMT +7)
1025
Sea-Intelligence: Container shipping capacity remains high in Lunar New Year 2023
The Lunar New Year taking place in China and many countries in Asia is expected to reduce the volume of cargo production, this is the time when major shipping lines blank many salings to adjust supply to match demand.
According to Sea-Intelligence, in 2020, the Lunar New Year will be extended due to the impact of the Covid outbreak, while in both 2021 and 2022, shipping lines will keep high capacity to meet increased demand.
Currently, as demand has faltered and freight rates continue to trend downward, it makes sense for shipping lines to increase their blanked sailings to reduce capacity during the 2023 Lunar New Year to try to prevent the decline of rates.
Container capacity growth in 2023 (Source: Sea-Intelligence.com, Sunday Spotlight, No. 595)
However, based on the above data, comparing 2023 with 2019 and the average capacity growth rate for the period 2015-2019, an unusual increase in deployed capacity can be seen.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, reports that Asia-North America West Coast service is showing a 35%-38% capacity increase, Asia-North America East Coast service is 57%-59% and the Asia-North Europe is 28%-42%, while the Asia-Mediterranean is the only shipping route close to pre-pandemic levels.
Sea-Intelligence said this development is worrisome, as despite the drop in demand, deployment capacity during the 2023 Lunar New Year period is expected to be higher than the capacity deployed in 2021 - a time when demand increases dramatically.
"If demand continues to be sluggish, or outright contracts, given these capacity levels, freight rates are expected to continue to tumble," pointed out Murphy. He went on to conclude that "with the shipping lines sitting on piles of cash, further helped by a highly profitable Q3, we might end up in a situation where there is another price war, reminiscent of the one we saw in 2015-2016."
Source: Phaata.com (According to Sea-Intelligence)
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