Trans-Pacific Rates Decline Slows

While tariff-weary trans-Pacific shippers are taking a breather, the market has seen a slowdown in container rates just as the peak season is supposed to be getting underway.

Spot rates across different trade lanes have seen abrupt moves, reflecting broader industry challenges and responses, analyst Xeneta said in a market update.

The market average spot rate on July 18 for the Far East to the US West Coast stood at $2,313 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU), while rates to the US East Coast were higher at $4,314 per FEU.

A closer look shows that West Coast rates have remained flat through mid-July, halting a sharp 28% decline in the first few days of the month. Rates to the US East Coast have followed a similar downward trend, down 7% since July 14 and down 26% since the end of June. Overall, rates to the West Coast have fallen 58% since peaking on June 1, while rates to the East Coast have fallen 35% over the same time frame.

These moves reflect shifting trade priorities and logistics strategies. The trade lanes’ notable differential—the gap between the West Coast and East Coast—has increased to $2,000, nearly double the $1,155 level on June 1. This widening gap highlights the stark economic adjustments these trade lanes are facing.

“Sentiment has turned and rates are falling despite the higher U.S.-China tariffs still being on hold, and the deadline for the rest of the world extended into August,” said Emily Stausboll, senior shipping analyst at Xeneta, in a note. “Shippers can’t frontload forever, no matter what happens with the tariffs, so the longer term direction for rates was always going to be downward.”

Capacity cuts on the trans-Pacific routes have limited the weakness in rates on routes to the US, but carriers are fighting an uphill battle to stabilize rates further into the end of the year.

Figures for the Far East to North Europe and Mediterranean routes were $3,410 and $3,853 per FEU, respectively. Interestingly, the North Europe-US East Coast trade recorded a much lower average rate of $2,011/FEU.

In contrast, the Far East-North Europe trade has seen an 18% spike in spot rates since June and a 78% increase compared to the end of May. This increase is closely linked to ongoing congestion at North European ports, fueled by a series of new large capacity vessels added earlier this year, combined with labor disruptions and logistical obstacles such as low water levels on the Rhine. However, the Far East-Mediterranean trade has deviated from this path, instead reflecting the same downward trend as the US markets.

“This is an ebb and flow of capacity across global supply chains as carriers seek out the higher rates, but by adding this capacity they risk ruining the party for themselves on the more profitable trades,” said Stausboll.

See more:

• Trans-Pacific Container Shipping Market: Differentiating Pricing Strategies Amidst a "Quiet" Situation
• Container Shipping Market Outlook for H2 2025
• Port of Oakland Container Volume Down 10% in June
• China's shipbuilding market share to fall 20% amid USTR port fee concerns
• US tariffs cast shadow over air cargo industry in Penang, Malaysia
• WorldACD: Air Freight Demand Falls in a Volatile Week

Source: Phaata.com (According to Freight Waves)

► Find Better Freight Rates & Logistics Service Providers!