US-Iran Conflict Puts Growing Pressure on Maritime Operations in the Strait of Hormuz

The US-Iran conflict is entering a new phase of escalation at sea, with attacks targeting oil tankers and commercial vessels increasing around the Strait of Hormuz.

This week, the two sides have carried out retaliatory attacks against oil tankers and commercial vessels on the largest scale since the conflict began on 28 February. The developments have raised concerns over the potential return of a “Tanker War” scenario similar to that seen during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.

Casualties and Damage Spread to Commercial Vessels

On Tuesday, US forces sank five Iranian oil tankers after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a US warship with ballistic missiles. The move followed attacks on three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday.

Washington said it had struck a total of 10 Iranian oil tankers over the past week. Iran, meanwhile, said it had attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation.

Over the same period, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that several commercial vessels had been hit by gunfire and rendered inoperable in the northern Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

The incidents have also resulted in casualties among seafarers. On 9 September, a crew member was killed aboard the product tanker Hercules Star while the vessel was anchored off Dubai. Its charterer, Peninsula, said another crew member remained missing, with specialist teams deployed to conduct a search.

An initial maritime security assessment indicated that Hercules Star may have been targeted by a drone, although the exact cause of the incident remains under investigation. The vessel has a deadweight tonnage (DWT) of 7,998 and flies the flag of Gibraltar.

Also on 9 September, the vessel New Andros was attacked by a drone while in Iraqi waters. The Panama-flagged vessel was carrying around 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil. The attack caused a fire on board and minor damage to the vessel’s hull, but all 22 crew members were safe and no cargo leakage was reported.

Geopolitical Outlook Remains Highly Uncertain

The latest escalation comes as US President Donald Trump continues to maintain that the war will end after the midterm elections on 3 November.

Speaking to reporters on 9 September, Trump said: “I think the war will end right after the election because they can’t hold out much longer.”

However, assessments within the US administration suggest that the conflict could last longer. According to The Wall Street Journal, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior advisers held separate discussions with Trump about the possibility that Iran could continue to withstand military and economic pressure, potentially prolonging the conflict through the remainder of the current administration and even beyond January 2029.

The gap between President Trump’s public statements and assessments within his administration indicates that the timeline for the conflict’s end remains unclear.

Growing Parallels with the 1980s “Tanker War”

Parallels with the “Tanker War” during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s are becoming increasingly apparent.

During that period, Iraq sought to disrupt Iran’s oil exports, while Iran responded by targeting vessels linked to countries supporting Iraq. Merchant ships from countries not directly involved in the war also increasingly became targets, causing security risks to spread across the Gulf.

In 1987, the US launched Operation Earnest Will, under which Kuwaiti oil tankers were reflagged and escorted through the Gulf. Hundreds of merchant vessels were attacked during this period before the Iran-Iraq War came to an end.

The current conflict has not yet reached the scale of that period, but it is showing several notable similarities: commercial shipping is becoming part of pressure tactics, the scope of targets is expanding, and merchant vessels face the risk of being drawn into conflicts between states.

Iran Preparing to Announce a Maritime “Sanctions Zone”

Iran is also preparing to announce a new maritime “sanctions zone.” According to the IRGC, the zone will begin in the Chabahar area before extending into parts of the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and approaches to the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran said vessels entering the area without coordination with Iran could face restrictive measures, including the possibility of being prevented from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the exact coordinates and scope of the proposed zone have not yet been fully disclosed. Iran has also not explicitly stated that all vessels entering the area would be attacked. As a result, at this stage, the zone is viewed as an emerging maritime security risk rather than a fully established maritime exclusion zone.

VLCC Rates Approach USD 800,000 per Day

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is pushing crude tanker freight rates sharply higher. Benchmark TD3C – Middle East Gulf to China has approached USD 800,000 per day, reflecting tightening VLCC shipping capacity as transits through Hormuz are disrupted and security risks increase.

The surge in freight rates has also raised concerns about a prolonged shortage of VLCC capacity. This is particularly significant as ton-mile demand is expected to continue growing faster than fleet growth in the coming years.

If the conflict continues, restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could increase sailing distances, vessel demand and pressure on VLCC supply.

The impact of the Hormuz crisis therefore extends beyond maritime security. If the disruption persists, the crude tanker market could continue to face pressure on freight rates and vessel supply, while adding further strain to energy costs and global supply chains.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Splash247)

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