WorldACD: Air Cargo Market 'Cools Down' After Peak Season High

Global air cargo volumes turned down slightly in the second week of December after peaking earlier in the month - a period that recorded roughly 5% year-on-year growth. Notably, freight rates are trending upwards, approaching the highs of last year's peak season.

The latest weekly data and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, covering the last five weeks up to Sunday, December 14, 2025, shows total global tonnages fell -2% in Week 50 (December 8 to 14). Meanwhile, global average rates ticked up (+1%) to $2.74/kg, just under 1% below the same period last year.

The steady price increase over the last three months has gradually narrowed the gap between this year's rates and the relatively high levels of Q4 last year. Specifically, the deficit has narrowed from -5% in September to approximately -2% in December, based on data from over 500,000 weekly transactions recorded by WorldACD.

2025 Year-End Summary: 4% Growth Amidst Volatility

Based on current trends and trajectories, global air cargo tonnages are expected to finish December with +5% year-on-year (YoY) growth, matching November's figures. This would bring total global volumes for full-year 2025 to an increase of approximately +4% compared to last year.

In terms of pricing, the global average rate for 2025 will be on par with 2024, at around $2.47/kg. The market recorded YoY increases in the first four months, but rates were lower than last year's levels for most of the second half.

As usual for this time of year, global average spot rates began to ease back in Week 50, accompanying the dip in tonnages. These are signs that air cargo is now "past the peak," as year-end inventory replenishment activities begin to cool in the final few weeks before the Christmas and New Year holidays. With spot rates down -1% week-on-week (WoW), the slight increase in overall global rates in Week 50 was mainly driven by minor shifts in contract rates.

Asia-Pacific to US Lane: Rates Buck the Trend with Strong Gains

In major markets from Asia-Pacific to the US and Europe, volumes recorded a decline compared to the previous week, but spot rates continued to rise from several key origin markets.

Chargeable weight from Asia-Pacific to the US in Week 50 dropped -4% WoW, mainly due to an -8% drop from China origins. However, spot rates from certain regions to the US continued to climb, reaching a +3% increase to $6.57/kg. This momentum was driven by surges in spot rates from Hong Kong (+12%, to $6.92), South Korea (+15%, to $5.79), and Singapore (+15%, to $6.43).

This development brings average spot rates on the Asia-Pacific to US lane to just -3% below the same period last year—the lowest YoY deficit in over six months. Notably, despite the turbulent China-US market this year, spot rates in Week 50 hit $6.96/kg, returning to parity with Week 50 last year.

Asia-Europe Lane: Double-Digit Volume Growth

For the Asia-Pacific to Europe lane, volumes fell -2% WoW, primarily due to reduced flows from China, Hong Kong, and to a lesser extent, Vietnam. However, on a yearly basis (YoY), volumes on this lane are up by a massive +11%, with strong increases from Taiwan (+27%), Hong Kong (+15%), Vietnam (+16%), Indonesia (+12%), and China (+11%). These 2025 YoY gains follow double-digit growth achieved in 2024.

In terms of pricing, spot rates on the Asia-Pacific to Europe lane ticked up (+1%) in Week 50 to $4.70/kg, marking the eighth consecutive weekly increase. This rise was supported by a +4% increase from China origins to $5.21/kg – the highest level this year. Spot rates on this lane are currently -5% lower than the same period last year, though this is the smallest deficit in the last six weeks.

Global Capacity Picture

On the supply side, total global capacity is expected to end the year up approximately +7% YoY. This includes double-digit growth from African origins (+18%), Central & South America (+12%), and Europe (+11%). Additionally, there was significant growth from Middle East & South Asia (+8%) and Asia-Pacific (+7%), while North America saw more modest growth (+3%).

Looking back at a volatile and turbulent 2025 for the air cargo industry, tonnages grew by +4% on top of the previous year's +11% growth. Full-year rates were generally commensurate with last year's relatively high levels, thanks in part to the firm consolidation of spot rates in the final months.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Air Cargo Week)

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