Xeneta Forecasts Airfreight Rate Decline in 2026 Amid Capacity Surplus

Air Cargo (Photo: Jaromir Chalabala / Shutterstock)

Xeneta has predicted that a market downturn will drive down airfreight rates in 2026, prompting shippers to seek longer-term contracts to take advantage of the situation.

Delegates at the recent Xeneta Air & Ocean Freight Summit in Barcelona were told that cargo capacity is expected to outpace demand next year, a dynamic that will drive down rates and create opportunities for shippers to cut costs.

"Just like gravity, the projected 2026 demand and supply growth suggests air cargo rates are likely to come down," said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer.

"With demand growth expected to trail capacity expansion, shippers will look to take advantage of the resulting downward pressure on rates by securing more long-term contracts - locking in predictability while the market softens," Xeneta explained.

The analyst added: "At the same time, forwarders will be focused on expanding their market share to sustain growth in a relatively flat volume environment. Together, these dynamics are likely to drive contract rates between shippers and forwarders even lower, adding fresh complexity to commercial relationships."

Previously, in its September airfreight demand report, Xeneta had noted that, due to rate volatility, shippers and forwarders were looking to secure longer-term agreements.

The company stated that in the third quarter, the share of six-month contracts had increased by 10 percentage points year-on-year to 22%, "timed to expire just after peak season and before the next annual cycle.”

The shift in market conditions could see index-linked contracts become more prevalent, as van de Wouw noted.

"While the post-pandemic market has seen airlines and forwarders become more transactional in nature, the potential for data-driven, flexible contracting models - similar to what’s emerging in ocean freight - could help both sides navigate the next cycle with greater stability and trust," Xeneta said.

Wenwen Zhang, Airfreight Analyst & Development Lead, identified six key factors shaping airfreight demand in 2025.

These, she said, were supply chain disruptions, the end of the US de minimis policy, the expansion of "China + X" manufacturing, US import tariffs, "US + X" consumer trends, and AI-related investments.

She also questioned how long airlines could continue to thrive on the impact of these market factors.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Air Cargo News)

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