International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 40/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 40/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 40/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 40/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) continued its decline for the 16th consecutive week, falling another 5% to $1,669/FEU in week 40/2025 (from Sept 29 to Oct 5, 2025). This marks the lowest level since January 2024.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 40/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 40 (Sept 29 - Oct 5, 2025), which coincided with the Golden Week holiday, marked the end of a period of market weakness. There was no last-minute demand surge. The market's focus has now shifted to the post-holiday period, where carriers are preparing for a large-scale capacity reduction, consistent with their historical actions, to rebalance the market.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side:

Demand remained weak in the pre-Golden Week period, with no spike recorded. The lackluster peak season has ended quietly.

- On the Supply Side: A Post-Holiday Capacity Shock

Capacity in Week 40 remained stable but is forecast to drop abruptly by 30-35% in the next two weeks (Weeks 41 and 42) due to a wave of post-Golden Week blank sailings. This is an annual and predictable capacity management action by carriers to cope with the sharp drop in demand after the holiday.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

A notable operational development is the increase in cargo rollovers related to the post-holiday blank sailings.

This is a deliberate tactic by the carriers. The lines planned to accept more bookings than the actual capacity on the final sailings before the holiday. The goal is to ensure the first sailings after the holiday are full, helping them to hold rates and stabilize the market during a period of weak demand.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 40/2025 continued to fall sharply by 13.37% compared to the previous week, down to $1,535/FEU. This rate is down 20.79% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Spot rates have fallen back to August levels, confirming the complete failure of the September rate hike attempts. The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has also been pushed back to October 15.

A New Strategy - Cutting Rates to Attract Cargo: Instead of trying to hold rates, carriers have now shifted to a proactive strategy of cutting prices to compete for and attract cargo.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update in-depth and fast market developments.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 40/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 40 (Sept 29 - Oct 5, 2025) showed that U.S. trade policy has become a self-operating machine, unaffected by internal political issues like a government shutdown. A new wave of targeted and extremely complex tariffs is about to take effect, while the most critical trade showdown with China is entering a crucial phase.

1- Impact of the U.S. Government Shutdown (From Oct 1) Tariff collection and enforcement activities are unaffected. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is considered an essential service and will continue to collect duties, process drawbacks, and implement new tariffs as planned. However, antidumping and countervailing duty (ADCVD) investigations will slow significantly as the majority of staff at the International Trade Administration (ITA) are furloughed, creating prolonged uncertainty for the businesses involved.

2- New Wave of Tariffs Officially Takes Effect on Oct 14 A series of new tariffs targeting specific industries will take effect on October 14. Affected goods: Softwood lumber (10%), certain upholstered furniture (25%), kitchen and bathroom cabinets (25%).

Expert Analysis on the Complexity:

-"Multi-layered rules": These tariffs are discriminatory, with lower caps for allies like the EU, Japan (15%), and the UK (10%).

- Special features: Notably, these duties are eligible for duty drawback, a major difference from other Section 232 tariffs. Furthermore, they are also exempt from other IEEPA reciprocal tariffs.

- Cost Paradox: This could create a paradoxical scenario. For an importer from a country subject to high reciprocal tariffs, being hit with this new tariff could actually lead to a net duty cost saving for a certain period.

3- The "Endgame" of the U.S.-China Agreement is Near (Deadline Nov 10) This is the most closely watched development.

• The Risk: The temporary agreement expires on November 10. If no new deal is reached, the tariff rate on Chinese goods risks soaring from 30% to 54%.

• Optimistic Signal: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted a "major breakthrough" in the high-level negotiation round scheduled for late October.

• Sticking Points: Remaining contentious issues include China's reduced purchases of U.S. soybeans and U.S. access to China's rare earth supplies.

4- Other Tariff Threats Still Looming The U.S. administration continues to send hawkish signals, with potential threats targeting: the furniture industry in general, motion pictures, heavy-duty trucks, and especially the pharmaceutical industry.

Overall Assessment: The U.S. trade policy apparatus has become a permanent, complex, and self-running entity, operating independently of other government functions. The level of complexity of the new rules is now the biggest barrier to trade for many importers and exporters.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in week 40 (Sept 29 - Oct 5, 2025) is not a story of supply-demand or freight rates, but one of a deep operational crisis. Europe's port and inland logistics systems are operating under extreme pressure, causing cascading delays and severe equipment shortages. Most worryingly, this paralysis is occurring in a low-rate environment, indicating the poor health of trade flows on this lane.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: Demand has weakened severely.

The root cause of the market weakness has been exposed: inflation and high inventory levels are making European retailers very cautious about importing new consumer goods. Real market demand is very weak.

- On the Supply Side: Post-Golden Week Blankings

Carriers have planned to blank about 25% of capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade in Weeks 40-41 (immediately after the Golden Week holiday). However, it must be stressed that this level of reduction is smaller than in previous years, indicating that competition among carriers is fierce and that overall supply from now until mid-October remains relatively abundant.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

Alarming Situation at European Ports: The situation at major European ports remains at an alarming level with no signs of improvement:

• Port of Antwerp: Yard utilization is up to 90%, with vessels waiting 2 to 4 days for berthing.

• Port of Rotterdam: Vessels are facing extended waiting times of 2 to 8 days.

• Port of Hamburg: The situation is particularly severe with berthing delays of up to 5 to 7 days.

• South Mediterranean Ports (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia): Continue to experience heavy congestion, with vessels waiting 3 to 7 days.

These numbers are not just statistics; they represent weeks of wasted time in the supply chain, increasing capital costs and disrupting all production and delivery plans for businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.

Equipment Crisis Spreads Inland: The shortage of empty containers remains at a critical level, especially in inland regions.

• Direct Consequence: This is a direct result of containers being stuck at congested ports and unable to be repositioned back to inland areas in a timely manner.

• Hardest-Hit Regions: Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal. Exporters here are facing delays and very limited container supply.

Freight Rate Developments: In Freefall

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 40/2025 continued its decline for the 9th consecutive week, falling sharply by 10.84% from the previous week to $1,637/FEU. This rate is down 33.24% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data. This is a powerful quantitative indicator that the market is in a very steep downturn. The market is weakening significantly, with carriers making great efforts to cut rates and compete for cargo, as shown by these factors:

• Carriers have begun to proactively cut rates to compete for and attract cargo.

• Many carriers have extended these low rates until October 14, i.e., through the Golden Week holiday.

Normally, such a severe operational crisis would tighten supply and push rates up. However, the fact that rates remain low reveals one thing: demand on this trade is extremely weak. Weak purchasing power in the North American market for European goods is completely neutralizing the upward pressure from the disrupted supply side.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 40/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 40/2025 fell by 3.09% compared to the previous week, down to $658/FEU. This rate is down 1.94% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 40/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 40/2025 increased by 2.22% to $184/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is up 6.98% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 40/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 40/2025 is caught between two pincers: on one side, a collapse in demand globally, and on the other, the instability and paralysis of the operational system in many regions.

The simultaneous and sharp fall in rates on both the Asia-North America (TPEB) and Asia-Europe (FEWB) trades has confirmed a widespread demand crisis. The root cause comes from high inventory levels and inflationary pressures in Western consumer markets.

The North America Trade: Is facing a short-term, deliberate capacity shock. The 30-35% capacity cut over the next two weeks is a defensive action by carriers that will create a temporary, artificial space crunch.

The Europe Trade: Is stuck in a systemic and prolonged operational crisis. Severe port congestion and deep inland equipment shortages are a "chronic" illness with no signs of remission. The biggest paradox is that this crisis is happening amid plummeting freight rates, indicating an extremely weak demand foundation.

The Tariff "Machine" Keeps Running: Despite the U.S. government shutdown, tariff policies are being relentlessly implemented. The new wave of tariffs targeting specific industries like lumber and furniture will take effect on Oct 14, adding another layer of complexity and cost for importers. Meanwhile, the Nov 10 deadline for the U.S.-China agreement remains the biggest uncertainty on the geopolitical chessboard.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires extraordinary agility: both to leverage low-price opportunities and to navigate a minefield of operational and policy risks.

1. Number One Priority - Prepare for the Post-Golden Week Capacity Shock:

This is the most urgent and predictable risk. The market is entering a period of artificial space scarcity. Businesses with cargo that needs to move immediately after Golden Week (Weeks 41-42) need to work urgently with their logistics partners. Prepare for the scenario of cargo rollovers or having to accept higher-cost alternative solutions.

2. Leverage the Low-Rate Market Strategically:

Don't let the short-term post-holiday chaos make you forget the big picture: this is a deep "buyer's market." After the wave of blank sailings passes (expected from Week 43), with underlying demand still weak, the market is likely to return to a low-rate state. This is a golden opportunity to plan and negotiate for shipments in late Q4 and early Q1 2026.

3. Get Ready to Respond to Tariffs (Effective Oct 14):

Businesses in the lumber, furniture, and kitchen/bathroom cabinet sectors need to complete their cost impact analysis and understand the complex compliance rules (regarding drawbacks, exemptions) for the new tariffs taking effect next week. Preparing in advance will help avoid cost shocks.

4. Place Emphasis on Operational Risk Management in Europe:

The operational crisis in Europe is not a short-term problem. For supply chains involving this region, accepting delays and building in contingencies (alternative ports, increased safety stock, using multimodal transport services) is a mandatory strategic requirement to maintain operations.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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