October Air Cargo Market Under Strain: A Convergence of Peak Demand and Supply Chain Disruptions

Air freight markets across Asia, Europe, and North America are facing increasing pressure this October, as rising seasonal demand converges with supply chain disruptions caused by weather, trade policy changes, and infrastructure challenges. This is the assessment from Dimerco Express Group's October 2025 Asia-Pacific Freight Market Report.

Demand growth is being driven by exports of semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) products, and consumer electronics from Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, the supply chain is being squeezed by several factors:

•    Rail disruptions on China–Europe corridors.

•    Factory closures during China’s Golden Week.

•    Lingering delays related to Typhoon Ragasa, which hit the Pearl River Delta region and Hong Kong in late September, forcing mass flight cancellations and creating backlogs at major hubs.

Hotspots in Key Markets

•    Taiwan & South Korea: Demand from high-tech and AI shipments remains stable, however, capacity on routes to Penang, Hanoi, and Jakarta is constrained. Demand in South Korea is also up slightly, with tight capacity to Singapore and Penang.

•    China & Hong Kong: Demand to Europe is rising as shippers avoid rail services affected by the Belarus border closure. The reallocation of flights for Apple product launches has reduced available capacity to Southeast Asia. Rates to the U.S. are elevated due to Amazon Prime Day volumes.

•    Southeast Asia (Vietnam & Thailand): Capacity is tight due to e-commerce and peak season shipping.

•    North America & Europe: In the U.S., a modal shift from ocean to air freight is straining flight capacity. In Europe, heightened geopolitical risks could lead to flight cancellations and fare increases.

Macro Policy and Market Outlook

On the policy front, U.S. trade reviews under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and tighter controls on transshipment goods are shaping logistics strategies. Companies are advised to prepare thorough compliance documentation.

Global manufacturing data also shows cautious optimism. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in August, the first expansion since mid-2024. However, international trade flows remain sluggish.

Dimerco expects October to remain challenging as factors like the Golden Week factory shutdowns, adverse weather, and changing trade rules converge. Higher air freight rates and congestion at major hubs seem unavoidable. The company advises shippers to plan ahead, diversify their shipping options, and prepare for longer lead times to mitigate the risk of delays and shortages.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Maritime Gateway)

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