International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 39/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 39/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 39/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 39/2025

Drewry’s World Ocean Freight Index (WCI) continued to decline for the 15th consecutive week, dropping a further 8% to $1,761/FEU in week 39/2025 (September 22-28, 2025). Both major trade lanes, Asia-North America and Asia-Europe, saw sharp declines.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 39/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North America market in Week 39 (September 22nd to September 28th), the last week before the Golden Week holiday, ended one of the most dismal peak seasons in many years. The wave of last-minute bookings did not happen. Faced with weak demand due to high inventories in the US, shipping lines were forced to withdraw all plans to increase prices and proactively reduce prices to attract the last shipments.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: The peak before the Golden Week did not appear

It can now be confirmed with certainty that the wave of early imports in Q2 to avoid taxes has led to a surplus of inventory in the US market. This is the root cause of the significant decline in demand for new shipments and a completely "quiet" period before the Golden Week.

- On the Supply Side: Overcapacity and Countermeasures

Shipping lines are still facing overcapacity. To cope and prevent freefalling rates, they are implementing planned blank sailings, such as the Premier Alliance temporarily suspending PS5 service.

Despite the cancellations, space on vessels remains available, especially at East Coast ports.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

Port of Long Beach Incident: Salvage and investigation activities are ongoing. Unloading of unaffected containers on the ZIM Mississippi has resumed, but containers directly involved in the incident are still being held.

Equipment: Overall, there are no major concerns about equipment shortages.

Freight Rates: 

Ocean Freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America in week 39/2025 continued to fall sharply by 17.92% compared to the previous week, down to 1,772 USD/FEU. This price is down 1.28% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

This is the most important development, showing a complete change in market sentiment:

- GRI & PSS Total Failure: All efforts to increase prices in September by shipping lines have completely collapsed. The General Rate Increase (GRI) on September 15 has been completely withdrawn. The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has also been postponed to October 15.

- New Strategy - Discounting Prices to Attract Cargo: Instead of trying to maintain prices, shipping lines have now switched to a proactive strategy of reducing prices to compete and attract cargo.

- Stabilizing low prices through the Golden Week holidays: A very notable move is that many shipping lines have extended these low prices until October 14, which covers the Golden Week holiday period, in an effort to ensure throughput.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update in-depth and fast market developments.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 39/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 39 (September 22-September 28, 2025) marks a clear shift in US trade policy from a period of mass announcements to a period of detailed implementation and legislative deadlines. The focus for businesses must now shift from reacting to headlines to managing operational details, meticulously complying, and, most importantly, preparing for imminent, urgent risks.

1- The Most Urgent Risk: HOPE/AGOA September 30 Deadline Has Arrived

In just one day, the key trade preference programs HOPE (for Haiti) and AGOA (for African countries) will officially expire on September 30.

Without last-minute action from the US Congress, goods from these regions will lose their duty-free status. This will cause a severe cost shock and disruption to many of the major brands in the textile, footwear and other industries that have been built around these programs. While there is bipartisan support for an extension, the last-minute uncertainty is significant.

2- Maritime Service Charge for Chinese Vessels (Effective 14/10)

A new service charge is expected to be levied on maritime transport services provided by Chinese operators or using vessels built in China, effective from 14/10. However, a positive signal is that carriers have now implemented effective mitigation measures (such as route adjustments, changes in fleet composition). Therefore, as of now, Phaata predicts that it is highly unlikely that these costs will be passed on to customers and no related surcharges will be applied. However, this remains a factor to be monitored in the long term.

3- The “New Normal” of Compliance Complexity

US-Japan Agreement: New trade rules have come into effect and are applied retroactively since August 7. US importers are still in the process of reviewing declarations to address compliance issues and tax refund opportunities.

Annex II & III: The list of products exempted from reciprocal duties (Annex II) has been updated. A new Annex III, which is said to relate to non-available natural resources, has been introduced but the details remain unclear, adding another layer of complexity to compliance.

4- Long-Term Update

IEEPA Case: The Supreme Court will begin oral arguments in early November. In the meantime, the taxes remain in effect, and businesses must continue to file while they await a final ruling that could result in refunds.

Overall: The period of shock announcements is giving way to a more complex period of detailed implementation, legal challenges, and legislative deadlines. Businesses’ focus must now shift from reacting to headlines to managing the details of operations and compliance in a reshaped commercial landscape.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North Europe market in Week 39 (September 22 to September 28, 2025), the last week before the Golden Week holiday, witnessed a sharp collapse in freight rates. Market power has completely shifted to the exporters. The root cause comes from the demand side, as macroeconomic problems in Europe have "strangled" new import demand. Faced with this reality, shipping lines have no choice but to compete at a discount to win the last shipments before the holiday.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: Demand is severely weakened

The root cause of the market weakness has been revealed: inflation and high inventory levels are making European retailers very cautious about importing new consumer goods. Actual demand in the market is very weak.

- On the Supply Side: Blank Sailings after Golden Week

Lines have planned to cancel around 25% of capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade in Weeks 40-41 (right after the Golden Week holidays). However, it should be stressed that the scale of the cuts is smaller than in previous years, indicating that competition between lines is very strong and overall supply from now until mid-October is still relatively abundant.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

A notable positive development is that congestion at European ports has eased. This improves schedule reliability but also removes a factor that has helped to artificially 'support' freight rates in previous months.

Freight Rates:

The freight rates from Asia to Europe continued their downward trend for the eighth consecutive week in week 39/2025, dropping by 7.41% week-on-week to $1,836/FEU. This is a 35.40% decrease month-on-month, according to Xeneta data. This is a strong quantitative indicator that the market is going down very strongly.

The market is weakening, shipping lines are making great efforts to reduce prices and compete for cargo, shown through the following factors:

- The General Price Increase (GRI) on September 15 has been completely withdrawn.

- Shipping lines have started to proactively reduce prices to compete and attract cargo.

- Many shipping lines have extended these low prices until October 14, which is over the Golden Week holiday.

The Asia-Europe market has collapsed, similar to what happened to Asia-North America a few weeks ago. The current market is a complete “buyer’s market”. Post-holiday cancellations are the main defense of shipping lines to prevent freight rates from falling. However, with smaller-than-usual cuts and weak demand, Phaata predicts that the downward pressure is likely to persist.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 39/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 39/2025 remained stable, increasing only slightly by 0.89% compared to the previous week, to 679 USD/FEU. This price increased by 7.44% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 39/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rates from North Europe to Asia in week 39/2025 remained stable, decreasing only slightly by 1.1%, to 180 USD/FEU compared to the previous week. This price is down 10.89% from last month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 39/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 39/2025 is shaped by two main factors: a "uniform plunge" in freight rates on major routes and a trade policy environment that is at a decisive juncture.

The polarization of previous weeks has officially ended. Both Asia - North America (TPEB) and Asia - Europe (FEWB) routes are now in a deep and pronounced downward adjustment cycle. The core cause is the synchronous weakening of demand in Western markets, which is caused by high inventories and macroeconomic pressures.

On both routes, shipping lines have failed to respond to market fundamentals. All attempts to increase prices in September have failed, and shipping lines are now actively reducing prices to compete and attract cargo.

While the risk of runaway freight rates has disappeared, other risks have emerged in a more acute manner:

- Urgent Policy Risk: The risk of the key trade preference programs HOPE (for Haiti) and AGOA (for Africa) expiring on September 30 is the most immediate and serious threat to the relevant supply chains.

- Compliance Burden: The US-Japan agreement officially coming into force with retroactive rules is creating a complex compliance puzzle for importers.

- Longer-Term Legal Risk: The IEEPA tariff case is still pending before the Supreme Court, posing both risks and great financial opportunities in the future.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires agility to take advantage of pricing opportunities, while being extremely careful to manage policy and compliance risks.

1. Take Advantage of the “Golden Time” for Q4 Cargo:

This is one of the most favorable market periods for buyers in many years. With carriers extending low rates until mid-October, this is a great time for businesses to negotiate aggressively and close shipments for the entire Q4 at extremely competitive costs.

For the Asia-North America (TPEB) trade, carriers are actively managing capacity, reconfirming schedules with logistics partners before delivery to the port is extremely important to avoid unnecessary costs.

For the Asia-Europe (FEWB) trade, European port congestion has eased, and supply chain reliability is improving. Combine the advantage of low rates and more stable operations to optimize your entire supply chain during this period.

2. Urgent Action Before the September 30 HOPE/AGOA Deadline:

This is the number one and most urgent priority. With less than a week to go, U.S. importers with supply chains in Haiti or African AGOA countries must immediately work with their partners to plan for the worst-case scenario of these programs expiring, resulting in their goods losing their duty-free status.

3. Shifting Focus to Compliance Management:

This is the time for U.S. importers to invest in compliance capabilities. Importers of goods from Japan should proactively work with customs service providers to review declarations from August 7. This will not only help avoid penalties but may also lead to significant tax refund opportunities.

4. Preparing for the Post-Golden Week Period:

While prices are very good, it is important to note that shipping lines have announced plans to cancel sailings of 25% capacity on the European route immediately after the holidays. Similar moves may be applied to the U.S. route.

Ensure that critical shipments are shipped before or immediately after the holidays to avoid being affected by this capacity squeeze. The period of low prices may not last forever if carriers are successful in rebalancing the market.

5. Navigating the New Trading Playground:

Reassess supply maps: Businesses with global supply chains need to reassess their supply maps in light of new bilateral tariffs.

Prioritize Transparency: In an environment where anti-tax evasion measures are increasingly stringent, having a transparent supply chain and perfect origin records is a competitive advantage and an important defense.

6. Building "Defensive" Capabilities for the Future:

Phaata believes that resilience is now extremely important. Successful businesses in the new era will be those that build a flexible supply chain through diversification (both suppliers and logistics options), strategic partnerships, and real-time information visibility.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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See more:

• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Oct 2025
• U.S. Tariffs Reshape Air Cargo Flows
• Typhoon Ragasa Snarls Far East Ports as Asia-Europe Rates Continue to Fall
• Pre-Golden Week Blank Sailings Accelerate, Revealing Divergent Alliance Strategies
• UNCTAD: Global Maritime Transport Faces Major Volatility Amid Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflict
• Global Container Market Diverges: Tariffs 'Sink' U.S. Trades, While Other Routes Remain Strong
• The Air Cargo Paradox: Positive Demand Growth, But a Future 'Constrained' by a Freighter Shortage
• CMA CGM Boosts UK Intermodal Network with Acquisition of Rail Freight Leader Freightliner
• Ahead of New USTR Port Fees, COSCO Pledges to Maintain Stable Service in U.S. Market

Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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