Asia-Pacific Air Cargo: Flows Rebalancing as Demand to the U.S. Recovers

The global air cargo market is showing significant signs of a shift. In recent weeks, cargo volumes between the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region and the U.S. have shown clear signs of recovery. Conversely, cargo flows from the region to Europe have been trending weaker. Analysts suggest this could be a sign of rebalancing trade flows, partly as a result of the U.S. finalizing more of its new tariff agreements.

According to data from WorldACD, chargeable weight between China and the U.S. increased by 1% in week 32 (ending August 10), after being flat in week 31 and recording a 5% increase in week 30.

Notably, demand from China to the U.S. in week 32 was up 5% year-over-year (YoY). This is the first positive year-over-year growth recorded since mid-April, signaling a potential recovery.

Meanwhile, the picture on the Asia-Europe trade lane is quite the opposite. Export volumes from Asia-Pacific to Europe have fallen for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to a downturn from major markets like China, South Korea, and Indonesia.

"The opposing developments on sectors to Europe and North America suggest a potential rebalancing of Chinese airfreight exports and a re-engagement with the US as more tariffs are finalised," WorldACD noted.

Although volumes between APAC and Europe are trending down in the short term, on a year-over-year basis, they are still 7% higher. This growth is driven by impressive contributions from Vietnam (+29%), Hong Kong (+21%), and China (+8%).

Spot Rate Developments

In terms of pricing, the Asia-Pacific to U.S. route saw a 2% week-over-week (WoW) increase but remains 14% lower than the same period last year.

Rates from Taiwan to the U.S. jumped 9% WoW.

Conversely, rates from South Korea dropped 5%, while those from Japan, Vietnam, and Singapore each fell by 2%.
Rates from China to the U.S., while improving 5% WoW, are still 11% lower than the same period in 2024.

WorldACD added: "South Korea’s 5% drop in pricing followed a slump of 10% the previous week, which erased previous year-on-year gains." Currently, Taiwan is the only market in the region with higher rates to the U.S. than last year (+9%). The YoY declines for other markets range from 8% (Thailand) to 29% (Vietnam).

Meanwhile, spot rates from Asia-Pacific to Europe were "less turbulence," holding steady week-over-week and down only 3% year-over-year. Weekly declines from China (-3%), Hong Kong and Singapore (-2%), and South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand (-1%) were offset by increases from Vietnam (+4%), and Japan, Malaysia, and Indonesia (all +3%).

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Source: Phaata.com (According to AirCargoNews)

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