Asia-US Container Rates Plummet, Signaling Prolonged Market Lull

Container freight rates on the benchmark eastbound trans-Pacific route have lost all momentum gained in early 2026. Tepid demand is marking a prolonged market lull.

Commenting on this development, Judah Levine, an analyst at Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO), shared in a customer note: “And while ocean rates typically ease as the holiday approaches, they normally remain elevated relative to levels before the rush until after the post-holiday backlog is cleared,”

However, this year's reality is different. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) shows rates from Asia to the US West Coast plunged 21% to $1,916 per FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) in the latest week. Meanwhile, rates from Asia to the US East Coast also fell 10% to $3,457 per FEU.

Freightos, a data contributor to the SONAR platform, pointed out that current prices have returned to the starting line. Mr. Levine wrote: “Asia-U.S. West Coast rates slipped more than 20% last week to about $1,900 per FEU are all the way back to early December levels, suggesting that prices are already entering the post-Lunar New Year, pre-peak season lull,”

Demand Outlook and Operational Challenges

The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Global Port Tracker report forecasts March ocean import volumes to drop 5% month-on-month. Demand in Q1 is expected to be 7% lower year-on-year, due to retailers adopting a cautious approach and tough comparisons against the frontloaded volumes seen in Q1 of last year.

Operationally, US container ports and air hubs have largely recovered from recent winter storms. However, congestion at inland rail terminals continues to cause delays for shippers.

Pressure from a Massive Fleet

Mr. Levine also noted that although global container volumes hit record levels in 2024, they still could not keep pace with carriers' fleet expansion rates.

Last week, Maersk reported its first quarterly loss in years, and its Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd also recorded declining earnings despite volume growth.

For the first time, Maersk stated it would factor a potential recession in a major economy into its outlook, forecasting a profit/loss swing range of up to $1 billion, contingent on whether significant container traffic returns to the Red Sea.

See more:

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• Maersk Reports Ocean Division Loss, Cuts 1,000 Jobs as Container 'Party' Ends
• NX China and SITC Launch Co-Branded Containers on Shanghai – Osaka Route
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• International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 5/2026 | Phaata
• COSCO schedules: Vietnam - North America in Feb 2026
• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Feb 2026
• COSCO updates Vietnam-North Europe sailing schedules in Feb 2026

Source: Phaata.com (According to Freight Waves)

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