Golden Week 2025: Market Braces for Last-Minute Blank Sailings on the Transpacific

Container vessel (Photo: Porttechnology / Phaata)

In issue 729 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight report, analysts examined the extent of blank sailings announced for the upcoming 2025 Chinese Golden Week holiday. The analysis reveals that on the Transpacific routes, scheduled capacity reduction is currently significantly lower than historical benchmarks, pointing to a high likelihood of a wave of last-minute cancellations in the coming weeks.

Historically, carriers have used blank sailing programs to align vessel supply with the anticipated drop in export demand during the week-long Golden Week holiday. This year, these adjustments are occurring against a backdrop of weakening demand and volatile freight rates, making capacity management a critical lever for market stabilization. However, with five weeks to go until the holiday, the number of announced blank sailings on the Transpacific is only a fraction of what has been seen in recent years.

On the Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC) trade, this discrepancy is particularly stark. Carriers are currently planning a capacity reduction of only 3.8% for the four-week Golden Week period. This is substantially lower than the 15.4% reduction in 2024 and also below the pre-pandemic average of 9.3% (2017-2019). To match the 2024 level of cancellations, carriers would need to announce an additional 21 blank sailings on this route.

The Asia-North America East Coast (NAEC) trade shows a similar trend, although the gap is less pronounced. At present, the planned capacity reduction is 4.8%, which is considerably lower than the 11.9% cut in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 11.4%. To align with historical reduction levels, another 7 sailings would need to be blanked.

Source: Sea-Intelligence

Given the current market conditions and the recent trend of carriers announcing capacity cuts closer to the departure date during periods of market instability, it is highly probable that more blank sailings will be announced for the 2025 Golden Week holiday. Shippers should anticipate these last-minute capacity reductions and plan accordingly.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Sea-Intelligence)

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