International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 21/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 21/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 21/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 21/2025

Drewry's Global Composite Container Freight Rate Index in Week 21/2025 continued to increase by 2%, to 2,276 USD/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate index is 60% higher than the pre-pandemic average of 2019 ($1,420).

Drewry's World Container Index Week 21/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America in 21/2025 increased sharply by 13.58% week-on-week to $2,970/FEU. This is up 6.34% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

Demand has been strong on the Asia - North America trade and is expected to continue to increase throughout Q2 due to the temporary reduction of US tariffs on Chinese exports and the upcoming traditional peak season.

As demand increases, vessel capacity is being booked up. Exporters should book four weeks in advance and consider premium options if urgency is a priority.

Carriers are bringing back capacity to meet increased demand starting in late May, and further capacity is expected in June.

In Week 21, Asia-North America capacity improved compared to previous weeks, but is still around 10% below normal levels. Capacity is forecast to improve further next week, with capacity forecast to increase by 2%.

Cancellations are expected to decrease in Week 22, with improved schedule quality. Six previously suspended services are now scheduled to resume, with some services resuming early in Week 22. Carriers are also considering adding additional vessels to Los Angeles/Long Beach (LA/LGB) service.

On the Asia to US East Coast trade, demand is expected to increase and lead to capacity shortages on the trade.

On equipment: Overall equipment availability remains adequate. Container shortages are not an immediate concern, although the situation remains fluid and will need to be monitored.

On freight rates: With the General Rate Increase (GRI) on May 15 and the GRI of USD 3,000 announced for June 1, spot rates are expected to increase — particularly in the Asia-North America floating market.

With increased bookings and capacity shortages, a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has been announced for long-term fixed rate contracts. The implementation began in mid-May and will increase on June 1 across the trade.

Please regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace to update market developments quickly.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 21/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Update:

The cooling of the US-China trade war, removing most tariffs, has immediately brought a breath of fresh air to the global economy amid concerns about the risk of recession. After negotiations in Switzerland on May 12, the US and China agreed to postpone part of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days (effective from May 14 to August 11). Specifically, the US significantly reduced the total import tax on goods from China, from 145% to 30%. China also reduced its retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 10% from 125%. The period was designed to facilitate deeper trade negotiations toward a lasting solution to the current dispute. This is seen as a significant step back in bilateral trade tensions. In addition, the US also reduced tariffs on Chinese postal items worth $800 or less from 120% to 54%, while maintaining the option of paying a flat $100 fee instead. The increase in the flat fee to $200 that was scheduled to take effect on June 1 has been adjusted.

The latest on other reciprocal tariffs:

+ The 10% reciprocal tariff on the UK will remain in effect indefinitely, according to the trade deal reached last Thursday.

+ The 10% reciprocal tariff on all other U.S. trading partners remains in effect until July 9 at 12:01 a.m. ET. After that, country-specific reciprocal tariffs will apply.
 

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

Container rates from Asia to Northern Europe continued to decline by 2.21% week-on-week in the week of 21/2025, to USD 1,874/FEU. This is down 20.02% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

The oversupply situation continues; carriers will further cut capacity by canceling sailings. Sea-Intelligence forecasts that ‌cancellations‌ in May on Asia-Europe could spike to 12-15%‌, exceeding the initial forecast of 8-10%.

According to Sea-Intelligence, hub ports in Northern Europe (including Rotterdam, Hamburg) are facing ‌5-7 days‌ of ‌docking delays‌ due to labor shortages and increased vessel concentration. This will impact vessel performance and turnaround times.

The Premier Alliance deployed smaller vessels from late May to early June, but capacity remained stable at 310,000–320,000 TEU per week until the end of May. However, the market is forecast to see a sharp downward revision in Week 25 to around 265,000 TEU, down 17%.

The European market is expected to see a slight recovery as seasonal consumer demand picks up. European retailers continue to replenish their inventory for the peak season. However, Asia-Europe demand may be limited in the short term as manufacturers prioritize capacity for urgent US shipments following the tariff reduction. This will impact the ability to meet cargo demand in this market over the next 3 to 4 weeks.

Additionally, as Asia-US volumes pick up again, capacity previously diverted to Europe may be reallocated to the trans-Pacific trades once again, relieving the oversupply pressure on the North European trades.

This suggests that the tariff adjustments between China and the US will have a slowing effect on the decline in Asia-Europe freight rates by reducing excess capacity.

Container equipment: Due to the surge in Asia-North America volumes in late May, container equipment may face challenges, potentially impacting Asia-Europe trade. Equipment shortages may force carriers to limit space on the trade in the coming weeks.

Freight rates: Asia-Europe freight rates are expected to return to more sustainable levels. After a sharp increase in cargo volumes on the Asia-North America route, this has boosted expectations of a rate increase on the Asia-Europe route and the market may return to a more reasonable state.

Please regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace to quickly update market developments.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 21/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

North America (West Coast) to Asia freight rates in week 21/2025 decreased slightly by 0.32% to USD 629/FEU. This price decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 21/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Northern Europe - Asia freight rates in week 21/2025 continued to increase slightly compared to the previous week, up 0.94%, to USD 215/FEU; this price decreased by 9.66% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 21/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Market Reviews by Phaata

The market in Week 21/2025 was strongly influenced by the US-China "tariff effect". The decision to temporarily suspend tariffs created a major demand shock on the Trans-Pacific route, pushing freight rates up sharply and putting enormous pressure on capacity.

The divergence between the two main trade lanes is deepening: While Asia-North America is experiencing a price and capacity “fever”, Asia-Europe is still in the process of adjusting rates downward, but there are strong signs that carriers are preparing for significant supply tightening, promising the possibility of prices bottoming out and recovering soon.

Risks and opportunities for shippers:

North America: Soaring shipping costs, severe space shortages require very early planning and acceptance of higher-cost services. The 90-day tariff deferral is creating a race to move cargo.

Europe: Current rates remain attractive, but be aware of the risk of equipment shortages due to the influx to the US and the possibility of prices rising again as major capacity cuts take effect. Congestion in European ports remains a risk factor.

Sustainability of Trans-Pacific momentum: It will be important to closely monitor whether demand will sustain after the 90-day tariff deferral period ends, and whether carriers will manage capacity appropriately to avoid a sharp drop thereafter.

Europe at a turning point: The expected sharp capacity cuts in Week 25 on the Asia-Europe trade could be the deciding factor in helping the market find balance and rates could start to recover from mid-June.

Recommendations from Phaata:

For North America: Prioritize securing slots, accept higher costs during this period and work closely with logistics providers. Make the most of the 90-day period but also prepare for what happens after that.

For Europe: Closely monitor capacity cuts and carrier pricing plans. This may be the last chance to get a good price before the market recovers. Be aware of the risk of equipment shortages.

Managing expectations and risks: The market is changing rapidly. Businesses need to constantly update information, assess risks and build flexible contingency plans.

Week 21/2025 is a clear demonstration of how political and commercial factors can strongly and quickly impact the global logistics market. The coming period will require high sensitivity and adaptability from all parties involved in the supply chain.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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