International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 25/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 25/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 25/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 25/2025

For the first time in over a month, Drewry’s WCI fell 7% to $3,279/FEU in week 25/2025, after six weeks of increases, largely due to lower demand for cargoes bound for the United States. This is a sign that the recent surge in imports into the United States, which came after the suspension of higher US tariffs, will not have a lasting impact.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 25/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

Week 25 has clearly confirmed the market correction trend on the Asia-North America trade that began last week. The freight fever and the severe shortage of space have completely ended. The market is now operating in a new reality where the massive capacity additions by shipping lines have outpaced current demand, leading to widespread downward pressure on rates across all ports to the US.

Supply and demand:

- On the Demand Side: The “quiet” period after the fever

While overall demand has not collapsed, the most important signal is that bookings for July are slowing significantly compared to the peak period in late May and early June. This suggests that the early wave of shipping to “race” ahead of the tariff deadline has passed for the majority of importers. Current demand is described as “mixed”, reflecting more diversified and planned shipping strategies, rather than a uniform wave of concern.

- Supply Side: From Rapid Response to Overcapacity

The strategy of shipping lines to add capacity has been successful, even exceeding what is needed, leading to a new scenario:

- Stable high capacity: Operating capacity is currently stable at 85%-90% in the second half of June and July.

- Risk of overcapacity: The increase in capacity, especially extra loaders to the Southwest Pacific gateway, is leading to the risk of overcapacity compared to the actual demand which is flat.

- Maximum capacity at sea: The rate of blank sailings is expected to continue to decline to very low levels, only 7% in Week 26 and 6% in Week 27. This confirms that shipping lines are keeping maximum vessels in operation, further increasing pressure on freight rates.

Container Situation

Container supply remains adequate at most ports of origin. Shortages are not a concern at this time.

Freight Rates: Widespread Downward Pressure

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America in the week of June 25, 2025 (June 16-June 22, 2025) fell sharply by 19.17% compared to the previous week, to USD 4,195/FEU. This price increased by 49.18% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

This is the most direct and obvious consequence of the change in the supply-demand balance:

- GRI implementation failed: The General Rate Increase (GRI) for June 15 was completely withdrawn across all ports, including the West Coast, East Coast and Gulf. This is the strongest confirmation of the market change.

- Spot Prices Continue to Fall:

- West Coast: Spot prices continue to cool down and are approaching the fixed price under long-term contracts, indicating that prices are finding a new stable ground at a lower level.

- East Coast & Gulf: After holding prices better, freight rates here have also started to decline in line with the general trend due to the oversupply scenario. This downward trend is forecast to continue.

- Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) is also cooling down, especially on the West Coast, reflecting the end of the panic-based pricing period.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update market developments quickly.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 25/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 25/2025 saw a series of policy moves from Washington, showing a clear "carrot and stick" trade strategy. Import-export businesses need to understand every detail to reposition risks and opportunities, because these regulations not only affect the countries directly named but also create important precedents for global trade.

1-Implementing the US-UK Trade Agreement

On June 16, the White House issued an Executive Order to implement part of the US-UK trade agreement. This Order will take effect 7 days after being published in the Federal Register.

Key provisions:

- Maintain the base IEEPA reciprocal tariff of 10% on imports from the UK.

- Reduce the Section 232 tariff on UK auto parts from 25% to 10%.

- Reduce the effective Section 232 tariff rate on UK cars from 27.5% to 10%, applicable to an annual quota of 100,000 vehicles.

- Completely eliminate the IEEPA reciprocal tariff and Section 232 steel/aluminium tariffs on UK products under the WTO Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft.

Comment: This is a classic example of “ally-shoring” (moving supply chains to allies). The US is willing to offer targeted tariff incentives, but with strings attached. The order also states that the US could impose quotas on UK steel and aluminium at most-favoured-nation rates, contingent on the UK meeting US supply chain security requirements. Similarly, the UK pharmaceutical industry is also likely to receive “significantly preferential treatment” if it complies with supply chain security standards. This shows that trade interests are increasingly linked to security and geopolitical strategy.

2-Tightening the Rules on the Origin of Imported Aluminum

On June 13, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) issued new guidance on declaring the smelting and casting country for imported aluminum subject to Section 232 tariffs.

New rule (effective June 28, 2025): Aluminum shipments with unidentified or unidentifiable smelting and casting countries will be subject to Section 232 tariffs of up to 200% – the same as those imposed on aluminum originating from Russia.

Comment: This is a strong move to combat tax evasion and prevent Russian aluminum products from bypassing third countries to enter the U.S. market. This regulation places the entire burden of proof on importers. Compared to the similar policy in March 2025, the new regulation is even stricter, requiring importers to declare the HTS Chapter 99 code of Russia, not just the country name. This shows that businesses importing aluminum and related products must strictly strengthen control and traceability in their supply chains if they do not want to face huge tax penalties.

3- Expanding Section 232 Tariffs to Steel Consumer Goods

On June 12, the US Department of Commerce added items such as washing machines, refrigerators, and other steel consumer appliances to the list of derivative products subject to Section 232 tariffs.

How it will apply (effective June 23, 2025): The 50% tariff rate will be applied to the value of the steel content in each product, not to the total value of the product.

Comment: This is a remarkable move, marking the expansion of Section 232 tariffs from raw materials and semi-finished products to final consumer goods. This will directly impact retail prices in the US market and create challenges for global manufacturers in these industries. This shows that the scope of trade protection measures is increasingly expanding, affecting more deeply the lives of consumers and the supply chains of finished goods.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

In contrast to the gradual return of stability on the North American route, the Asia-Europe market in Week 25 (June 16-June 22, 2025) is sinking deeper into a multi-layered operational crisis. The supply chain is currently facing a dual challenge: equipment shortages at Asian ports of departure for goods bound for Europe and congestion in the domestic logistics system in Europe. This is a period when businesses are paying more for an increasingly unreliable service.

On supply and demand:

The current scarcity of space and price increases are no longer simply driven by demand, but are the result of a series of successive operational problems:

The problem of equipment shortages in Asia: This is a new and very worrying development. The surge in shipments on the Asia-North America trade in recent weeks has disrupted the global empty container rotation cycle. As a result, Asian ports are running out of containers to load goods to Europe. Some shipping lines are now relying entirely on return trips for empty containers, causing delays right from the start.

Multi-layered operational crisis in Europe: When goods do arrive in Europe, they face a wall of problems:

- Strikes at major ports: Strikes in Gothenburg (Sweden) on 23-24 June and Belgium on 25 June are expected to worsen existing congestion, especially at the port of Antwerp.

- Inland transport disruptions - Waterways: Low water levels on the Rhine are causing barges to become stuck, with waiting times of up to 56 hours, delaying container shipments further inland.

- Inland Transport Disruptions - Rail: Delays on German rail lines are creating bottlenecks in container movement, further challenging on-time domestic deliveries.

- Potential Geopolitical Risks (Strait of Hormuz): While the current conflicts have minimal direct impact on container vessels (as vessels on the Asia-North Europe route have largely diverted around the Cape of Good Hope), indirect risks remain. Any blockage there could send oil prices soaring, leading to increased Bunker Charges (BAF) by shipping lines.

Freight Rates:

The above operational issues have had a direct and significant impact on freight rates and service quality. Freight rates from Asia to Europe in week 25/2025 increased sharply by 14.86% compared to the previous week, reaching USD 2,822/FEU. This is an increase of 48.37% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Shipping lines have announced or are expected to announce additional General Rate Increases (GRIs) for July (CMA has taken the lead).

June sailings are fully booked.

The situation of cargo being dropped from ships is becoming more serious and is expected to heavily affect sailings in late June and early July.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace to quickly update market developments.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 25/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 25/2025 remained stable compared to the previous week, with only a slight decrease of 0.47% to USD 634/FEU. This price increased by 0.48% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 25/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North Europe to Asia in week 25/2025 decreased by 2.14% compared to the previous week, to USD 275/FEU. This price increased by 28.50% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 25/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

International shipping and logistics markets Week 25/2025 has shown a complex picture with contrasting trends, officially entering the "two-speed market" phase. The fact that Drewry's global WCI index fell 7% for the first time after six consecutive weeks of increase is an important macro signal, mainly reflecting the cooling of the North American market.

Asia-North America (TPEB): Has officially entered the downward adjustment phase. The "fever" caused by the wave of pre-tariff shipments has ended. The massive capacity additions by shipping lines are now leading to the risk of oversupply, leading to the withdrawal of all GRI on June 15 and a sharp drop in spot prices (down more than 19% for the West Coast this week). The bargaining power is returning to the shippers.

Asia-Europe (FEWB): In stark contrast, this route is sinking deeper into a serious operational crisis. Freight rates continue to soar (up nearly 15% in a week) not due to booming demand, but due to supply chain disruptions: shortages of empty containers in Asia (a result of the previous "fever" to the US) and multi-layered congestion (strikes, river/rail transport disruptions) in Europe.

Uncertainty from Trade Policy: In addition to operational issues, the increasingly complex US trade policy environment (incentives for allies like the UK, tightening regulations on aluminum, expanding tariffs on consumer goods) creates a layer of strategic risk, requiring businesses to be vigilant and flexible.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires a sophisticated logistics and supply chain strategy, "tailored" for each specific market.

1. Adopt a Different Strategy for Each Route

For the North American market: Shippers can take advantage of this cooling market period to negotiate better rates for July and August shipments. Proactively work with multiple carriers to optimize costs.

For the European market: Switch to "maximum risk management" mode. The top priority at this time is not price, but securing space and equipment. Accept higher costs and build detailed contingency plans for delays or ship failures.

2. Comprehensive Supply Chain Risk Management:

The problem of empty container shortages for goods to Europe will continue. Exporters need to work closely with logistics partners to plan for early container pickup, even accepting higher cost solutions to ensure equipment availability.

3. Monitor and Adapt Quickly to Trade Policy:

The US tariff environment is constantly changing and has far-reaching implications. Exporters need a dedicated team or partner to monitor official announcements from CBP, USTR, analyze the impact (even if indirect) and adjust strategies as needed.

4. Optimize Total Landed Cost:

Don’t just look at ocean freight rates. Calculate the total cost, including potential costs due to delays (warehousing/storage fees), capital costs due to higher inventory, and tariff risks. Sometimes, a more expensive but reliable service option can save you money overall.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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