International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 41/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 41/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 41/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 41/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) continued its decline for the 17th consecutive week, falling again but at a slower pace, down just 1% to $1,651/FEU in week 41/2025 (from Oct 6 to Oct 12, 2025). This marks the lowest level since January 2024.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 41/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 41 (Oct 6-12, 2025) is being shaped by one common factor: the massive wave of post-Golden Week blank sailings. This move is creating a temporary capacity "bottleneck." Carriers are trying to leverage this short-term space scarcity to halt the price slide by announcing a General Rate Increase (GRI) for October 15. However, with the underlying demand foundation still weak, this is seen as a risky "psychological" game.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: Overall market demand is still forecast to be low-to-flat.

- On the Supply Side: A Post-Holiday Capacity Shock. This is the most critical development. Due to planned blank sailings, deployed capacity in Weeks 41 and 42 is projected to drop significantly, down to just 62-69% of normal levels. However, this is only a short-term shock. Capacity is forecast to rebound strongly to 83% in Week 43. This rapid recovery will likely push the market back into a state of overcapacity.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

A notable operational development is the increase in cargo rollovers related to the post-holiday blank sailings.

This is a deliberate tactic by the carriers. The lines planned to accept more bookings than the actual capacity on the final sailings before the holiday. The goal is to ensure the first sailings after the holiday are full, helping them to hold rates and stabilize the market during a period of weak demand.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 41/2025 continued to fall by 3.71% compared to the previous week, down to $1,478/FEU. This rate is down 33.48% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Amid a weak market but temporarily tight capacity, carriers are making contradictory moves:

• GRI on Oct 15 - A Calculated "Test": Carriers have announced a General Rate Increase (GRI) for October 15. This is a calculated "test." The main purpose is to halt the rate slide and leverage the temporary space scarcity to establish a new post-holiday rate floor.

• PSS Postponed to Nov 1 - The Real Signal: Conversely, carriers have again postponed the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) until November 1. This is a clear-cut signal that the carriers themselves lack confidence in a sustainable market recovery. They are acknowledging that market strength is insufficient to support a peak surcharge.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update in-depth and fast market developments.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 41/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 41 (Oct 6-12, 2025) shows U.S. trade policy continuing to expand and increase pressure, even on its closest allies. A new proposed tariff on heavy-duty trucks has dealt a major blow to the North American supply chain. Meanwhile, businesses are grappling with new compliance rules taking effect this very week, while also facing a potential cash flow crisis due to the U.S. government shutdown.

1- This Week's Focus: New Tariff Pressure on the USMCA Bloc

On October 6, President Trump announced a plan to impose a 25% tariff on medium and heavy-duty trucks, expected to take effect on November 1.

This is a major blow to the highly integrated North American automotive supply chain, which is the cornerstone of the USMCA agreement. Mexico (supplying 74% of U.S. truck imports) and Canada (20%) will be the two countries most heavily affected. The biggest risk now is the uncertainty over whether USMCA-compliant products will be exempted.

2- New Rules Officially in Effect & Immediate Impact

This week is the effective date for a series of new regulations.

Fees on Chinese Vessels (Effective Oct 14 - Today): The fees on Chinese-owned/operated vessels and China-built vessels are now officially in effect. The most notable operational point: The responsibility for identifying and paying this fee falls on the vessel operator, not CBP at the port. Payment must be made directly to the U.S. Treasury at least 3 business days before arrival.

New Tariffs on Lumber, Furniture, Cabinets (Effective Oct 14 - Today): The 10% (for softwood lumber) and 25% (for furniture/cabinets) tariffs have been officially applied. Notably, the executive order also forecasts a subsequent tariff hike on January 1, 2026, for countries without a trade agreement with the U.S.

3- Financial Impact from the U.S. Government Shutdown

This is an extremely serious issue for business cash flow. CBP confirmed in an October 6 meeting that it will NOT issue any tax refunds (including ACH refunds, checks, drawback payments, etc.) during the government shutdown. This is a direct and negative financial impact, potentially causing a cash flow crisis for importers awaiting large refunds, especially those from recent policy changes. Although processing of claims continues, "the money will not flow."

4- The Big Picture Remains Complex

China: The November 10 deadline is approaching, and high-level talks are expected in late October.

Other Threats: Tariff threats against the pharmaceutical, film, and general furniture industries... remain, indicating a broad and aggressive trade agenda.

Overall Assessment: The U.S. trade policy environment is now extremely complex, comprising rules already in effect, escalating threats even to allies, and financial/operational barriers caused by internal political issues. Navigating this environment requires adaptive flexibility and strategic financial planning.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 41 (Oct 6-12, 2025), the week immediately following the Golden Week holiday, is in a period of calculated waiting. Real demand has not yet returned, and carriers, with experience from previous years, are deploying a series of aggressive tactics from capacity management to pricing to control the market and prevent a price collapse in Q4.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: The market remains flat due to the holiday's influence. Carriers are concerned about a slow demand recovery, similar to previous years.

- On the Supply Side: To counter weak demand, carriers deliberately overbooked by 20-50% on the final sailings before the holiday. This is a purposeful tactic to optimize vessel utilization for the first post-holiday voyages and ensure these ships are full, even if new bookings are weak.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

Extended Blank Sailing Program: The current blank sailing program will continue to impact supply, with a 10% capacity cut per week in Weeks 42 and 43. More importantly, a new blank sailing program for November has been announced, primarily in the first half of the month (a 20% capacity cut in Week 45 and 4% in Week 46).

This is a very clear signal: carriers are determined to act preemptively to prevent a price collapse in Q4. They are willing to sacrifice volume to protect rates and have warned that more blank sailings will follow if the market does not accept the new rate levels.

Freight Rate Developments: 

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 41/2025 continued its decline for the 10th consecutive week, falling 2.06% from the previous week to $1,603/FEU. This rate is down 31.92% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data. This is a powerful quantitative indicator that the market is in a very steep downturn.

GRI for Second Half of October - A Strategic Move: Carriers have announced the first round of General Rate Increases (GRI) for the second half of October. Phaata believes the purpose of this GRI is not necessarily to sharply increase prices, but to prevent further volume decline and create a sense of urgency for shippers. It's a "psychological" tool to drive bookings.

Forecast: If the market does not respond positively and booking volumes do not increase, we may see another round of rate hikes in early November, accompanied by more blank sailing announcements.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 41/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 41/2025 continued to fall by 5.07% compared to the previous week, down to $620/FEU. This rate is down 8.89% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 41/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 41/2025 fell sharply by 10.56% to $165/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is down 9.58% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 41/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 41/2025 is dominated by a major paradox. While macroeconomic indicators show a weak global market with rates at their lowest in nearly two years, the short-term operational reality is a period of space scarcity due to large-scale post-Golden Week blank sailings. Layered on top of this complex operational picture are new U.S. trade policies officially taking effect, along with a potential cash flow crisis caused by the U.S. government shutdown.

The Market is Squeezed by Three "Pincers":

• Weak Demand: The underlying demand on both major trades to the U.S. and Europe is low-to-flat.

• Deliberate Capacity Tightening: Carriers are showing high discipline in cutting capacity (30-35% on the U.S. trade, 10-20% on the Europe trade) in the post-holiday period to prevent a rate collapse.

• Trade Policy: New U.S. fees and tariffs are effective this week, while other risks remain, creating an extremely complex compliance environment.

Asia to North America: Carriers are playing a short-term "gamble," trying to leverage the temporary scarcity to push up prices with the Oct 15 GRI, but are showing a lack of long-term confidence by postponing the PSS to November. Asia to Europe: Carriers are playing a longer-term "chess game," with blank sailing plans announced for both October and November, showing a strong determination to control the Q4 market.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires a combination of urgent short-term action and cautious long-term planning.

1. Number One Priority - Address the Short-Term "Capacity Shock":

This is the most immediate risk. The market for the next 2-3 weeks will be dominated by space scarcity.

Businesses with urgent cargo needs in October must act immediately, work continuously with logistics partners, accept scheduling flexibility, and prepare for a high risk of rollovers.

For less urgent shipments, a "wait-and-see" strategy until late October or early November, when capacity recovers, will likely yield better options and rates.

2. Manage Cash Flow Amid the U.S. Government Shutdown's Impact:

This is a direct financial shock. CBP's suspension of refunds during the shutdown will heavily impact businesses expecting large refunds (from drawback, policy changes, etc.).

Immediate Action: Importers need to immediately review their cash flow plans and assume all expected refunds will be delayed indefinitely.

3. Ensure Immediate Compliance with New Tariff Rules (Effective Oct 14):

There is no more time to prepare; this is the time for execution. Businesses in the lumber, furniture, and China-vessel related supply chains must ensure their compliance processes are activated.

Pay special attention to complex operational details, such as the vessel operator (not CBP) being responsible for paying the maritime service fees.

4. Plan for Late Q4 with a Strategic Mindset:

The carriers' strategy is clear: they will not let rates freefall in Q4. Use the current low base rates as a foundation to begin negotiations for year-end shipments, but be aware that capacity will be very tightly managed. A massive overcapacity situation may not return soon.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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