International shipping and logistics market update - Week 8/2025

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 8/2025

Drewry's global composite container freight rate index continued to decline in the week of 8/2025, down 10% to $2,795/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate index is 97% higher than the pre-pandemic average of 2019 ($1,420). This downward trend reflects the lingering impact of weak demand after the Lunar New Year and concerns about overcapacity.

Drewry’s World Container Index Week 8/2025 (Photo: Phaata | Source: Drewry)

1. Asia - Northern America route

Ocean freight rates 

from Asia to the West Coast of North America in week 8/2025 continued to fall sharply by 16.10% compared to the previous week, down to USD 4,111/FEU. This price is down 21.05% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Demand is also increasing but still weak, not reaching pre-Tet levels. Currently, vessel space is more abundant than before Tet, showing that the market is still weak. Transport capacity is recovering quickly after Tet, currently reaching over 90%.

Spot rates have been falling rapidly in the second half of February and could extend into March if demand recovers slowly.

Given the current market conditions, the likelihood of shipping lines applying General Rate Increase (GRI) in March is very low. This suggests that downward pressure on rates is still ongoing due to the rapid increase in capacity relative to market demand, despite the trend of accelerating imports into the US to avoid the risk of new tariffs.

Equipment conditions have improved, with container supply now sufficient at most major Asian ports.

US tariff update:

President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, effective March 12. He added that the tariffs on these metals “may go higher” and will not be eligible for refunds. The full list of products subject to the upcoming tariffs is pending and will be published in the Federal Register. Canada, Brazil, and Mexico are the top three steel suppliers to the United States. According to the International Trade Administration, from March 2024 to February 2025, these three countries accounted for nearly 50% of US steel imports.

President Trump continued to state that he could impose 25% tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors as early as April 2, 2025. However, it is unclear whether the tariffs would apply to all imported vehicles or target specific countries. If implemented, the new tariffs could have a significant impact on major auto exporters to the United States, including Mexico, Japan, and Canada.

Asia-US West Coast Freight rate | Week 8/2025 (Image: Phaata.com)

2. Asia - Northern Europe route:

Container shipping rates from Asia to Northern Europe continued to fall sharply by 10.80% in week 8/2025 compared to the previous week, down to USD 2,800/FEU. This price is down 34.40% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The recovery of goods after the Lunar New Year is still slow. However, the market is expected to improve after Week 9 (early March). The rapid recovery of capacity after the Lunar New Year led to a situation of oversupply, causing freight rates to drop sharply.

To prevent the price decline, shipping lines have announced many blank sailings. This has affected the transport capacity from late February to early March. Shipping lines are looking to push prices up in early March through GRI. This could prompt shippers to increase their shipping in February to avoid higher rates.

At least three carriers in the Gemini and Ocean alliances have announced plans to increase freight rates (GRIs) in March, with an expected increase of over 50% compared to current rates. Given the current supply-demand situation, Phaata predicts that the freight rate increase in March is unlikely to be as high as announced. However, the announcement of this GRI could help stem the downward trend and even create a slight increase in March.

Therefore, shippers should book early in February to lock in current rates and secure space on board, avoiding the risk of price increases in March.

Asia-Northern Europe Freight rate | Week 8/2025 (Image: Phaata.com)

3. Northern America - Asia route:

Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 8/2025 decreased by 1.70% compared to the previous week, to USD 636/FEU. This price decreased by 5.22% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

US West Coast - Asia Freight rate | Week 8/2025 (Image: Phaata.com)

4. Northern Europe-Asia route:

Freight rates from North Europe to Asia in week 8/2025 increased by 1.62% compared to the previous week, to USD 251/FEU. This price decreased by 14.33% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Northern Europe - Asia Freight rate | Week 8/2025 (Image: Phaata.com)

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Source: Phaata.com - Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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