Little Can Be Done to Stop the Slide in Asia-North America Container Rates

Spot container rates on the trade from Far East Asia to the U.S. have slowed their sharp decline, which has seen an average drop of 53% since June for destinations on both the East and West coasts.

The latest update from shipping consultancy Xeneta shows the market average spot rate from Far East Asia to the U.S. West Coast at $2,098 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit), down 3% since July 31, and at $3,311 to the East Coast, 9% lower over the same period.

This compares to a 62% plunge to the West Coast since June 1, and a 53% drop to the East Coast since June 15.

"Carriers have taken action to arrest the plummeting average spot rates on the trans-Pacific trade to the U.S. 

West Coast through strong capacity management, with blanked sailings now almost double the level in mid-June," said Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, in a research note.

"The dramatic fall in spot rates has slowed during August, so more aggressive capacity management is enjoying some success for carriers, but this is limited and not enough to stop the downward trajectory in the coming months."

"With significant overcapacity in the global container shipping fleet and a muted forecast for demand, keeping spot rates elevated will be like holding back the tide, no matter how hard carriers try."

The four-week rolling average of blanked sailings from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast has increased from 30,000 TEU per week on June 22 to 57,000 TEU on August 1.

And because no supply chain change happens in isolation, logistics providers have observed that the increase in blank sailings has contributed to the severe ongoing congestion problems at some of China’s busiest container ports. That, they said, has led to laden containers being rolled over at the terminal, as shippers use the ports as de facto warehouses while waiting for space on a vessel.

Xeneta said the market average spot rate from the Far East to North Europe is $3,330 per FEU, and $3,372 from the Far East to the Mediterranean.

Rates from the Far East to North Europe have stabilized after increasing by 78% between May 31 and July 1, and have since fallen by 2%. The average spot rate from the Far East to the Mediterranean has fallen a further 7% since July 31, and is down 26% since June 15.

The spread in average spot rates on the routes from the Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean is now almost equal, at $42 per FEU. On June 1, that figure was $1,765.

As China's container volumes to Europe have remained high for much of the summer, some observers have speculated that China is selling goods at a steep discount to keep its factories running after U.S. tariffs became nearly equivalent to an embargo on its most important trading partner.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Freight Waves)

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