International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 31/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 31/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 31/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 31/2025

The Drewry WCI continued to decline for the seventh consecutive week, but at a slower pace, down just 1% to $2,499/FEU in week 31/2025 (July 28 to August 3, 2025). The main reason was the sharp decline in demand for freight from Asia to the United States.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 31/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North America container shipping market in Week 31 (July 28 to August 3, 2025) showed a clear picture: the negotiation advantage belongs to import and export shippers. The carriers’ attempt to implement a General Rate Increase (GRI) for August 1 has failed in the face of the fact that capacity supply is still far outstripping demand. While freight rates are more favorable, new disruptions such as typhoons in Asia are becoming the main challenge to supply chain reliability.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: August forecast to remain stable

Market demand in August is forecast to remain stable and flat, similar to July levels. The wave of early imports in Q2 has met most of the demand, leaving the traditional peak season unchanged.

- On the Supply Side: Prolonged surplus and adjustment measures

Operating capacity remains high (70%-80% of the standard level) and no significant cuts have been recorded. This confirms that the overcapacity situation relative to actual demand continues. Overall, there is still plenty of space available on board.

Operations

While the supply-demand market is relatively stable, operational risks have increased due to the impact of typhoons. The typhoons affecting the Ningbo and Shanghai areas this week have caused direct disruptions: temporary suspension of empty container picking and expected delays to vessel schedules.

Container Situation

The supply situation of equipment is clearly differentiated. The shortage is now mainly an issue for CMA and HMM, while other shipping lines are in better condition. This is important information for shippers to choose the right shipping partner.

Freight Rates: 

Ocean Freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America continued to decline in the week of 31/25, but at a slower pace, down 1.81% from the previous week to $2,166/FEU. This is down 23.27% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The market weakness is evidenced by the following:

- August GRI Complete Failure: Carriers’ attempt to implement a General Rate Increase (GRI) for August 1 has completely failed.

- PSS Cancellation: The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has been completely canceled in the market for August.

- August Freight Rates: Instead of increasing, carriers have extended the low July rates into the first half of August, and even reduced them further for East Coast and Gulf ports.

Comment:

The biggest challenge for businesses now is no longer high transportation costs, but the reliability of the supply chain. Risk has shifted from financial issues (freight rates) to physical issues (whether goods are picked up and loaded on the ship on schedule).

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update in-depth and fast market developments.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 31/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 31 saw a flurry of executive orders and announcements that replaced uncertainty with a new reality of clear rules. Three key themes emerged: the end of low-cost e-commerce, the rise of bilateral power-based deals, and continued strategic confrontations.

1- The End of De Minimis Exemptions

This was the most shocking and far-reaching news.

On July 30, President Trump signed an executive order accelerating the suspension of de minimis exemptions for all countries, effective August 29, 2025.

This is not just a tax change, but the end of a business model based on low-cost, low-value shipments that has boomed over the past decade. The acceleration of the roadmap from 2027 to just one month would create a huge shock to the entire cross-border e-commerce supply chain, just ahead of the peak year-end shopping season. Retailers and logistics service providers would face huge disruptions and cost pressures.

2- A New Era of Power-Based Bilateral Deals

The past week has seen a series of drastic actions, showing that the US is actively using market power to reshape trade relationships.

US-EU Preliminary Agreement: A strategic agreement has been reached, in which the EU accepts 15% tariffs on many important items (automobiles, pharmaceuticals) and 50% sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper. In return, the EU must make huge commitments on energy purchases, investment in the US, removal of non-tariff barriers and military equipment purchases.

Tariffs on Brazil and India: In contrast to the EU, Brazil (50% tariff increase) and India (25% tariff) face unilateral sanctions. This is an example of the “stick” of US policy towards countries that are perceived to have trade barriers or are strategically inconsistent (e.g. India’s purchase of military and energy equipment from Russia).

Copper Tariffs Confirmed: The 50% tariff will take effect from August 1, demonstrating a strong protectionist policy for fundamental US industries.

3- Strategic Confrontations Continue

China: A notable development is that both sides have agreed to push for an extension of the interim agreement that expires on August 12. This shows the complexity and importance of the relationship, as both powers recognize that the current uncertainty is not beneficial and that more time is needed to reach a longer-term solution.

Semiconductors: The results of the Section 232 investigation are expected to be announced in about two weeks. Given the strategic importance of the chip industry, any new tariffs would have major ripples globally.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North Europe market in Week 31 (July 28 - August 3, 2025) has entered a stable but tense period. Rates have been flat at a high level and shipping lines are holding their positions. However, deeper analysis shows that this is just a transitional period. Actual demand remains solid and major European retailers are preparing for a large import wave in September, promising a second peak wave at the end of August.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: 

Current demand in the market remains stable, helping the early August sailings to be filled quickly. Major retailers are planning to significantly increase their volumes for September shipments, which is expected to create a booking surge in late August.

- On the Supply Side: 

Vessel capacity for the first two weeks of August is filling up quickly. This could be a crunch time for shippers to secure space before the September booking surge.

Operations:

While the overall situation has improved slightly, operational risks remain a major challenge. Typhoons affecting Ningbo and Shanghai this week have caused temporary suspensions of empty container pickups and are expected to cause delays to vessel schedules.

Equipment Situation

The overall situation has improved slightly compared to late July. However, shortages remain a major issue for CMA and HMM, while other carriers are in better shape. Carrier selection remains a key strategic factor.

Freight Rates:

Asia to Europe freight rates for the week of 31/2025 fell slightly by 1.41% week-on-week to $3,362/FEU. This was up 0.18% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

Shipping lines, following Maersk’s move, are also adjusting their Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) on long-term contracts, indicating their confidence that rates will remain high in August and September.

August Outlook: Phaata expects rates to remain at current high levels or even increase slightly. High rates are driven by a combination of factors: limited supply due to operational issues, strong demand, shortages of space and equipment at origin, and congestion and customs delays at major European ports. Therefore, freight rates are likely to increase in late August as the market prepares for September's production growth.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 31/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia increased slightly by 0.63% to $638/FEU in the week of 31/2025. This is a 2.57% increase compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 31/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia rose slightly by 1.28% to $237/FEU in the week of 31/2025. This is up 3.49% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 31/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

Week 31/2025 will be remembered not for the freight rates, but for the week when the global trading landscape was fundamentally reshaped. We are entering a new era, where a “multipolar” global market is governed by complex bilateral rules, and old business models are facing existential challenges.

Asia-North America: Has bottomed out and entered a “new normal” of low prices. The advantage is entirely with the shippers/importers. However, the main risk has shifted from price to schedule reliability due to operational disruptions at origin (weather, congestion).

Asia-Europe: In a lull before the next price increase. High freight rates have held steady, and the market is bracing for a new wave of demand that is expected to hit in late August to service September orders.

The decision to completely end de minimis exemptions on August 29 is a tectonic shift. It puts an end to the business model based on low-value, low-cost shipments that have fueled the boom in cross-border e-commerce over the past decade.

A series of unilateral tariff actions and agreements by the United States have created a patchwork of trade rules. Now, the cost and access to the U.S. market are no longer based on the WTO’s general rules, but on each country’s bilateral relationship with the United States.

Recommendations from Phaata

This phase requires a drastic change in thinking and strategic action.

1. Transform Your Business Model to Adapt (Urgent Action):

For e-commerce businesses, the end of de minimis is an existential threat. There is an urgent need to rebuild cost models, seek warehousing and fulfillment solutions in the US, and clearly communicate price increases to customers. The direct shipping model from Asia to US consumers will become extremely expensive.

2. Apply a "Dual-State" Strategy to Logistics Operations:

For the North American market: Optimize costs but manage operational risks. Take advantage of the low-price environment to close good deals. However, focus on managing the risks of disruptions at the origin by working closely with logistics partners and developing contingency plans.

For the European market: Act now to catch the new wave. This is the last “window of opportunity” to book September cargo before a wave of bookings could push freight rates and shortages to new heights in late August.

3. Navigating the New Trade Playground:

Reassess your supply map: Businesses with global supply chains need to reassess their supply map based on new bilateral tariffs (e.g. compare the cost of importing from Vietnam (proposed tariff of 20%) versus Japan (15%) or Brazil (50%)).

Prioritize transparency: In an environment where anti-avoidance measures are increasingly stringent, having a transparent supply chain and excellent origin documentation is a competitive advantage and an important safeguard.

4. Build “Defensive” Capabilities for the Future:

Phaata believes that resilience is now more important than ever. Successful businesses in the new era will be those that build resilient supply chains through diversification (both suppliers and logistics options), strategic partnerships, and real-time visibility.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

Find Freight Rates Here
 
Find Logistics Companies Here

See more:

• COSCO schedules: Vietnam - North America in Aug 2025
• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Aug 2025
• Asia-Pacific: Cargo Volumes Rise, But Load Factors Dip
• Tariffs Spark Export Rush, But Shippers Hesitate on Air Freight Schedules
• Container Rates 'Becalmed' as Shippers and Carriers Try to Hold Their Nerve
• International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 30/2025 | Phaata
• Tariffs Harming U.S. Businesses and Consumers, Experts Say
• CMA CGM Reflags Vessel, Creating the Largest U.S.-Flagged Containership

Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

► Find Better Freight Rates & Logistics Service Providers!