Suez Canal 100 Days Post-Attack Pause: Throughput Remains 60% Below Pre-Crisis Levels

While the attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea have subsided, latest data confirms that the recovery of the vital Suez Canal arterial route has been agonizingly slow. According to an analysis by BIMCO, vessel transit volumes in the first week of 2026 remain significantly below levels recorded before the crisis began.

The attack on the vessel Minervagracht over three months ago marked a critical turning point in the region’s maritime security crisis.

“100 days ago, on 29 September, the Minervagracht was to become the last ship to be attacked by the Houthis, at least for now. Forty-three days later, the Houthis declared an end to their attacks on ships. Despite this, traffic through the Suez Canal has not significantly increased and in the first week of 2026 remained 60% below the corresponding week in 2023, before ships started diverting around the Cape of Good Hope,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

According to Lloyd’s List, Houthi forces have carried out a total of 99 attacks or vessel seizures since November 2023. While attacks were frequent in late 2023, it was not until January 2024 that Suez Canal traffic began its sharp decline. Since then, quarterly deadweight tonnage (DWT) transit through the canal has consistently trailed 2023 levels by 51% to 64%.

The reality throughout 2025 was equally grim, with widespread declines across almost all vessel segments.

“During 2025, Suez Canal DWT transits have been 57-64% lower than in 2023. In the fourth quarter, transits by bulkers, container ships, crude and product tankers were respectively 55%, 86%, 32% and 19% lower than in 2023,” Rasmussen added.

The sole outlier is the product tanker segment. Leveraging rising freight rate premiums, these vessels have returned to the Suez route in greater numbers. In Q4 2025, throughput for this group was only 19% lower than in 2023 - a significant improvement from the 45% drop recorded in 2024.

In the container sector, most carriers maintain a stance of extreme caution. However, the market has recently seen the first signs of "testing the waters." CMA CGM announced it would reroute its MEDEX and INDAMEX services through the Suez Canal starting in January 2026. This follows the Maersk Sebarok, which on December 19, 2025, became the first Maersk vessel to transit the canal since early 2024.

While Maersk has not yet released a specific schedule for subsequent voyages, the company stated: “assuming that security thresholds continue to be met, we are considering continuing our stepwise approach towards gradually resuming navigation along the East-West corridor via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.”

Another critical factor that could accelerate this process is the decline in insurance costs. According to S&P Global, Red Sea war risk premiums dropped to 0.2% of hull value in early December - the lowest since November 2023 - down from 0.5% prior to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

However, a return to this shorter route presents its own set of supply-and-demand complications for carriers.

“A normalisation of ship transits now appears more likely than at any point during the last two years, but it remains unknown if, or how fast, this may happen. A return to the Suez Canal would reduce shipping companies’ costs significantly but also hurt ship demand. A full normalisation is estimated to reduce container ship demand by approximately 10% while other sectors could see 2-3% reductions,” says Rasmussen.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Container-News)

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