US tariff war directly affects only 1.5% of global shipping volume

Port of Los Angeles, USA. Photo: Port of Los Angeles

Despite the attention, US tariffs and retaliatory actions have so far directly impacted only 1.5% of global shipping volume, according to the latest data from Clarksons Research. Prior to that, during the 2018-2019 trade war, the volume of goods transported in tonne-miles fell by just 0.5%.

Clarksons assesses that US trade policy remains volatile, and analysts at the world's largest shipbroker acknowledge that the risk of escalation remains, while indirect impacts could increase. However, there is also the potential for the US to establish new trade agreements and reshape global shipping patterns.

This week, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) will hold public hearings on March 24 and 26, 2025, regarding its Section 301 investigation into China's dominance in maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors.

Potential sanctions include:

• Imposing port service fees on Chinese-built vessels calling at US ports.
• Requiring exporters to ship a certain percentage of their cargo on vessels owned, operated and ultimately built in the US.

Uncertainty over US Tariff Policy

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, acknowledged that the tariff outlook remains extremely uncertain.

“Federal agency findings that could lead to sharp tariff increases on China, reciprocal tariffs on a long list of countries, the USTR’s proposed port fees on Chinese-made vessels, as well as the reinstatement of 25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports are due in early April,” Levine said.

“Given the massive uncertainty surrounding the US trade policy towards tariffs and proposals for port fees targeted at Chinese ships and carriers, shippers will seize any opportunity to lower their overall import costs during freight rate negotiations,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at container freight rate platform Xeneta.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Splash247)

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