Air Freight Early 2026: Robust Volume Recovery with Southeast Asia Surging

According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, worldwide air cargo tonnages continued their strong recovery momentum in the second full week of 2026 (Week 3), breaking away from the typical seasonal end-of-year slump.

Broad Recovery Across Regions

Specifically, the market recorded a +11% week-on-week (WoW) increase, maintaining total global volume at +5% compared to the same period last year.

The +11% recovery in Week 3 (January 12–18) was driven by volume increases from all major world origin regions, except for the Middle East & South Asia (MESA), which saw a slight dip of -1%. This recovery follows a +28% growth in the preceding week.

Based on over 500,000 weekly transactions recorded by WorldACD, global chargeable weight has returned close to pre-holiday levels, sitting just roughly -10% below the mid-December peak.

In terms of year-on-year (YoY) comparisons, most major origin regions recorded growth:

•    MESA: +15%

•    Africa: +9%

•    Asia-Pacific: +6%

•    Central & South America: +5%

•    North America: +2%

•    Only Europe saw a slight decline (-1%) compared to the same period last year.

Rates Bottoming Out and Rising Slightly

Global average rates appeared to bottom out in Week 2 and began a slow climb in Week 3 (+1% WoW, reaching $2.41/kg). The primary driver was a +4% rise in rates originating from Asia-Pacific (averaging both spot and contract rates).

Global average spot rates also recovered +1% in Week 3, hitting $2.60/kg. This price level is on par with the same period last year, even though capacity has increased more sharply (+9% YoY) than the growth in chargeable weight (+5% YoY).

Contrasting Picture in Asia-Pacific

In terms of total volume, the Asia-Pacific to Europe lane is growing more strongly than the lane to the US in the early weeks of 2026. However, there is a distinct divergence among individual markets.

1.    Asia-Pacific to Europe: Volume in Week 3 surged +19% YoY. Most major origin countries grew strongly, including:

o    China (+17%)

o    Hong Kong (+30%)

o    Taiwan (positive growth)

o    Thailand (+32%) and Malaysia (+26%).

o    Exception: Japan fell -3%.

2.    Asia-Pacific to US: While total volume saw a healthy +6% YoY increase, there is a massive performance disparity:

o    China and Hong Kong (CN/HK): Down -12%.

o    Southeast Asia and other markets: Recording a boom. Specifically, cargo volumes from Vietnam and Thailand to the US have jumped approximately +50% year-on-year - a trend that has persisted over the last few months.

Spot Rates Still Lower Than Last Year

Regarding pricing, the picture is mixed.

•    To Europe: Spot rates from Asia-Pacific in Week 3 dropped -3% WoW and -12% YoY.

•    To US: Spot rates rose slightly by +3% WoW, but remain -11% lower than the same period last year. This decline occurred across most origin points, with the exception of Singapore (which held steady).

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Air Cargo Week)

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