International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 29/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 29/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 29/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 29/2025

The Drewry WCI continued to decline for the fifth consecutive week, falling 2.6% to $2,602/FEU in Week 29/2025 (July 14-July 20, 2025). The main reason was the sharp decline in demand for freight from Asia to the United States.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 29/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North America market in Week 29 continued its downward trend, with flat demand and ample capacity supply. The most notable development during this period was not only the decline in freight rates, but also the increasingly clear differentiation in the pricing strategies of shipping lines as they faced the situation of prolonged overcapacity.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: "Quiet" peak season

Forecasts show that demand will continue to be flat throughout July and August. The wave of early imports in the US in Q2 has largely absorbed the demand of the traditional peak season. The current market has stabilized but at a low level of output.

- On the Supply Side: Prolonged overcapacity and adjustment measures

Prolonged overcapacity: July's operating capacity remained high (80%-90%). Although there was a slight decrease in the plan for August (to 75%-86%), this level still shows a market with excess capacity compared to current demand. Overall, space remains available.

New Operational Issues in Southeast Asia: A new operational bottleneck has emerged at the transshipment ports in Malaysia and Singapore. Congestion there is causing 3-5 day delays for services originating from Southeast Asia compared to scheduled schedules.

Container Situation

Container shell supply at most ports of origin remains ample, with no shortages reported. This further reinforces the picture of a market with excess capacity.

Freight Rates: A Big Advantage for Shippers

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America continued to decline sharply by 6.23% week-on-week in the week of 29/2025, to $2,243/FEU. This is down 52.05% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

West Coast: The freight market is no longer uniform, with clear differentiation among shipping lines. Some shipping lines are trying to maintain prices by announcing and applying General Rate Increases (GRI) for July 15. Meanwhile, other shipping lines, in order to compete and fill the gap, are extending old rates or launching short-term "bullet rates". As a result, the rate spread for West Coast destinations is getting wider.

East Coast & Gulf: The market here is more uniform. Floating rates and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) have both been adjusted downward in July.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update market developments quickly.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 29/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 29 saw a sharp acceleration in US trade policy. The “negotiation under pressure” strategy is being deployed across the board, with the announcement of a series of proposed tariffs for major partners, while bilateral agreements and investigations are reshaping the global trade playing field. The August 1 deadline is approaching, and the pressure on countries is increasing by the day.

- “Rain” of Tariff Letters Continues - Canada, Mexico and the EU in Sight

After announcing proposed tariffs for 22 countries, the Trump administration continues to introduce reciprocal tariffs for other important partners: Canada: 35%, European Union (EU): 30%, Mexico: 30%

This move shows that even the closest allies and partners in the USMCA bloc are not exempt from this pressure strategy. The big and fraught question now is whether USMCA-compliant goods will be exempt from these tariffs – something that remains unclear. In total, more than two dozen US trading partners have received “tariff letters,” all of which face an August 1 deadline.

- Evidence of the “Pressure to Negotiate” Strategy

The developments of the week have made it clear that “tariff letters” are just the first step in forcing countries to the negotiating table.

Indonesia’s success story: On July 15, the US and Indonesia announced a trade deal that sets reciprocal tariffs at 19%. This is significantly lower than the 32% that President Trump had previously proposed. It is a prime example of how negotiations can yield a better outcome than initially threatened.

EU response and actions with Brazil:

EU: Shortly after the US proposed 30% tariffs, the EU announced on July 14 that it would postpone retaliatory measures until early August to try to reach a deal.

Brazil: In contrast, less than a week after proposing 50% tariffs, the US Trade Representative (USTR) escalated by initiating a Section 301 investigation into a range of trade policies against Brazil. This is a more formal and powerful tool, suggesting that the issues with Brazil are more complex.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

Week 29 saw the Asia-North Europe market operating at the height of its stress. Peak season demand has proven to be higher than carriers had forecast, but the system has been unable to respond effectively due to previous cancellations and congestion. In this context, the strategy of carriers appears to be shifting from aggressive price-pushing to managing scarcity to stabilize and extend the profitable peak season.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: The heat of the peak season

Peak season demand has exceeded carriers’ forecasts, with volumes growing steadily since June. Ship delays and rollovers are forcing importers to plan their Black Friday and Christmas shipments earlier. This is likely to extend the peak season this year compared to 2024.

- On the Supply Side: Operational Crisis and Aggressive Control Strategy

Although average capacity in July increased by 19% compared to June (to around 306,000 TEU), the cancellations in Week 29 have created a significant backlog. The priority for shipping lines in the next 1-2 weeks will be to clear this backlog.

Tightening equipment and booking controls: This is the most obvious strategy. The Ocean Alliance (OA) and Premier Alliance (PA) alliances are aggressively restricting container access to limit new bookings for Weeks 31 and 32, forcing the market to clear the backlog first. The window for picking up containers and bookings has been significantly narrowed.

Freight Rates:

Freight rates from Asia to Europe for the week of 29/2025 showed stability compared to previous weeks, increasing only slightly by 0.97% compared to the previous week to USD 3,418/FEU. This price increased by 21.64% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

This shows that the market has reached a high and stable price level in July. Therefore, the application of further GRI rate increases in the second half of July will be challenging.

The shortage of space and equipment is likely to last until the end of July or early August as shipping lines prioritize clearing inventory. Phaata predicts that shipping lines may consider suspending further rate increases in August. The goal of shipping lines is not to reduce prices, but to maintain the current high price level, attract more volume and prolong this profitable peak season for as long as possible.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace to quickly update market developments.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 29/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 29/2025 decreased by 1.08% to 641 USD/FEU. This price increased by 0.94% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 29/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia in week 29/2025 reversed to increase slightly by 0.84% after a sharp increase last week, down to USD 236/FEU. This price decreased by 14.18% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 29/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 29/2025 has shown a clear complexity and differentiation. There is no longer a common trend for the world; instead, we are facing two completely opposite operating realities, and all are dominated by a new and calculated trade policy "game" from the United States.

Asia - North America route: Has completely become a "buyer's market". The wave of early import in the US has ended, leaving a large demand gap. The overcapacity situation is forcing shipping lines to compete fiercely on price, as shown by some lines launching "bullet rates".

Asia - Europe route: At the peak of an operational crisis. Peak season demand is confirmed to be stronger than expected, but is facing a chaotic supply system. Carriers are proactively tightening access to equipment and new bookings to manage the huge backlog, keeping freight rates high and stable.

On top of these two contrasting operating realities is a whole new trade policy “game” for the United States. The continuous announcement of proposed tariffs on a series of countries (including close allies) and the success story of Indonesia (negotiating lower tariffs) clearly show the pattern: using a high level of threat to force countries to the bilateral negotiation table.

In this context, the proposed 20% tariff on Vietnam is no longer a hypothesis. It has become part of a visible global strategy, and can be seen as an official opening offer for a trade negotiation with the United States.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires a sense of acumen and a strategy "tailored" for each market, each specific risk.

1. Make the Most of the Tax Deferral Period in the North American Market:

This is a golden time for shippers/import-export businesses to proactively negotiate. With spot prices at very low levels, do not accept the first quote. Actively work with logistics partners to get the best price for shipments in Q3.

Re-evaluate the transportation plan: Reconsider the total cost of going directly to the East Coast versus going to the West Coast and then transporting inland by rail.

2. Risk management and continuity

The strategy here is risk management and continuity. The top priority is strategic partnerships with service providers that can guarantee stable space and equipment supply.

Planning for August: The "psychological battle" for August bookings has begun. Share production forecasts clearly and as early as possible with partners so that they have a basis to reserve space for you before the market has new fluctuations.

3. Build a "Battle Scenario" for Tariff Risk:

The August 1 deadline is approaching. For Vietnamese businesses, assessing the impact of the 20% tax rate is the most urgent task. It is necessary to recalculate costs, renegotiate with buyers and reassess competitiveness.

For businesses with global supply chains, it is necessary to review the impact of the proposed tariffs for 22 countries and the BRICS bloc to have a response plan.

4. Enhance Adaptability:

Phaata believes that competitive advantage in the new era lies not only in cost, but also in the adaptability and resilience of the supply chain. Build contingency plans, and create a flexible corporate culture, ready for unpredictable changes.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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