International Transport and Logistics Market Update Week 46/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 46/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 46/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Recommendations by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 46/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) in week 46/2025 (from Nov 10 to Nov 16, 2025) reversed its trend, falling 5% from the previous week to $1,859/FEU. This marks the first week of decline after four consecutive weeks of gains.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 46/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 46 (Nov 10-16, 2025) witnessed the collapse of the November rate hike efforts. A strong capacity recovery following the post-Golden Week period, combined with flat demand, led to severe overcapacity. Carriers have had to shift from a strategy of holding rates to competing on price to fill vessels, creating an extremely favorable environment for importers.

Supply and demand:

- Demand: Market demand remains stable and flat. Notably, the market appears to be "immune" or has already reacted to the tariff news. There has been no significant change in booking behavior despite previous fears of tariff hikes on Chinese goods from Nov 1 (which have been partially alleviated by the interim agreement).

- Supply: Following the tactical post-Golden Week capacity cuts, capacity in November has bounced back sharply. Capacity is forecast to remain above 80% for the rest of November. This level is too high relative to current demand, creating a clear state of overcapacity. This is the fundamental factor weighing on any rate recovery efforts.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 46/2025 reversed to fall sharply by 14.08% compared to the previous week, down to $2,386/FEU. This rate is still up 62.55% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The overcapacity has forced carriers to change tactics quickly. The General Rate Increase (GRI) announced for November has been scrapped for the rest of the month. This is an admission of failure for the early-month rate hike attempt.

Although list FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates remain, the market is actually operating on negotiated rates. Carriers are actively offering "specials" below list rates to fill ships. Therefore, spot rates are under continuous downward pressure.

December Outlook: The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has again been postponed to December 1. Phaata forecasts that, given the failed November GRI and persistent overcapacity, the likelihood of a successful PSS or high GRI in December is very low.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 46/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 46 witnessed a significant structural change as the EU officially followed the U.S. in removing duty-free exemptions for low-value goods, marking the end of the global "tax-free" e-commerce era. Meanwhile, de-escalation measures between the U.S. and China have begun to take effect, bringing some "breathing room" to the supply chain. However, the legal shadow from the U.S. Supreme Court still hangs over the future of $90 billion in collected duties.

1- Structural Shift: EU "Kills" Tax Exemption for Low-Value Goods

This is the most significant development, with long-term impacts on the global B2C supply chain model. The European Council has reached an agreement to remove the customs duty exemption for goods under €150. This targets unfair competition and environmental issues, with data showing 91% of these shipments in 2024 came from China.

Implementation Roadmap:

• Temporary Transitional Solution: Expected to apply from 2026.

• Long-term Solution: Synchronized deployment with the EU Customs Data Hub by 2028.

Assessment: This move, coming just months after the U.S. implemented a similar measure, shows a Western policy synchronization to counter the cheap Chinese e-commerce model. E-commerce businesses will face soaring compliance costs and tariffs in the world's two largest consumer markets.

2- Realizing the U.S.-China "Truce"

Commitments from the late-October summit have begun to translate into real action:

U.S. Side:

• Tariff Reduction: From Nov 10, the "fentanyl" tariff was reduced to 10%, bringing the total effective tax rate down to ~45%.

• Fee Suspension: Port fees on Chinese vessels have been suspended for 1 year.

Chinese Side:

• Strategic Concession: Delayed rare earth export controls for another year (from Nov 9) - a key win for the U.S. tech supply chain.

• Agricultural Commitment: Although soybean purchases showed signs of slowing after the meeting, the large volume commitments (12 million tons by end-2025, 25 million tons/year for 2026-2028) remain an "anchor" for trade relations.

• Suspension of Retaliation: Paused counter-tariffs and non-tariff measures.

3- The Supreme Court Battle:

The Fate of $90 Billion The Nov 5 hearing on the legality of IEEPA tariffs revealed huge risks and opportunities:

• Core Argument: Are tariffs a tool to "regulate imports" or effectively a "revenue-raising tax" (which the executive branch cannot unilaterally impose)? The Justices asked pointed questions on this.

• Refund Issue: The concern over the chaos of refunding over $90 billion in collected duties is a factor being carefully weighed.

• Future Scenario: A ruling is expected by June 2026.

  • If the government loses: CBP will stop collecting the tax immediately. However, the refund process will be extremely complex, and the administration could re-impose taxes via other statutes (Section 301, 232, 122...).

  • Therefore, U.S. businesses must still pay current taxes but are required to keep records to be ready for refund claims.

4- Other Notable Developments

Agriculture (Coffee & Bananas): Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed plans to cut tariffs on certain agricultural goods. This is good news for importers from Brazil (currently facing 50% tariffs), Colombia, and Canada, helping to reduce food price inflation pressure.

"Tariff Dividend" Proposal: The idea of distributing $2,000 to citizens from tariff revenue remains a political proposal, with no clear implementation roadmap and requiring Congressional approval.

Overall Assessment: The trade landscape is shifting from "anaphylactic shock" to "structural adjustment." The tightening of e-commerce rules by both the EU and U.S. demands a comprehensive business model change. Meanwhile, the temporary stability in U.S.-China relations is an opportunity for businesses to reinforce their supply chains.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 46/2025 was a challenging week for the Far East Westbound (FEWB) trade. The market appears "distorted" by operational factors. Rates are rising not because of booming demand, but because of bottlenecks at destination ports and carrier capacity cuts. This is a complex scenario requiring high flexibility in service selection.

On supply and demand: 

Demand: Booking demand at origin remains flat. Although carriers announced rate increases (GRI), shippers are not rushing to lock in bookings but are adopting a "wait and see" strategy, expecting prices might correct if carriers cannot fill their ships.

Supply: Capacity in the second half of November will be cut by 10% weekly through 2 void sailings. While the cut isn't massive, when combined with vessel delays due to congestion, it creates a real sense of space scarcity in the market.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

Severe congestion at Rotterdam shows no signs of abating. To salvage schedule reliability and vessel turnaround efficiency, carriers have been forced to make a difficult decision: omitting Rotterdam calls on certain sailings. Cargo destined for Rotterdam will be discharged at Antwerp or Le Havre. This means shippers will face arrival delays due to transshipment or arranging inland transport from these alternative ports. This is a huge potential cost and time risk.

Freight Rate Developments: 

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 46/2025 fell slightly by 2.08% to $2,213/FEU. This rate is up 37.06% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

It must be emphasized that this price level is driven by a lack of capacity/supply, not by real demand growth. Therefore, the sustainability of this rate is a big question mark. Divergent Pricing Strategies:

• "Hardline" Group: Some carriers are adamant about maintaining the announced GRI levels.

• "Flexible" Group: Others have begun to roll back increases to proactively gather cargo, creating price disparities in the market. Shipper Shift: There is a clear trend of shippers shifting to shorter transit time services to avoid delay risks. This makes fast vessels highly utilized with firm pricing. Conversely, longer transit time services are under pressure to cut rates to attract customers.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 46/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 46/2025 continued to fall slightly by 0.69% from the previous week, down to $629/FEU. This rate is up 0.10% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 46/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 46/2025 rose by 7.45%, to $132/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is down 16.74% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 46/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 46/2025 is dominated by operational divergence and a structural shift in trade policy.

Two Extremes of the Transport Market:

• Asia - North America (TPEB): Witnessed the collapse of the rate hike effort. A massive capacity recovery (to over 80%) overwhelmed flat demand, returning the market to a "buyer's market." Carriers were forced to launch "specials" to fill ships, ending the illusion of a year-end rally.
• Asia - Europe (FEWB): Is operating in a state of "bottleneck-induced tension." Rising rates (despite weak demand) are a consequence of capacity cuts and, specifically, the congestion crisis at Rotterdam. Carriers being forced to skip ports is a red alert for schedule reliability.

Global "E-commerce Tariff Wall" Era: The EU's decision to remove duty-free status for goods under €150, following a similar U.S. move, has officially closed the golden era of cheap cross-border e-commerce. This is a long-term structural change, forcing a redesign of the global B2C supply chain.

U.S.-China Strategic "Pause": The 1-year "truce" deal has brought needed stability. However, this is only a temporary solution, and legal issues (the $90 billion IEEPA lawsuit) still hang like a major financial unknown.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period demands absolute flexibility: attack to reduce costs on the U.S. lane, defend to secure cargo on the Europe lane, and restructure for the E-commerce sector.

1- "Price Hunting" Strategy for U.S.-Bound Cargo:

Actively seek "spot specials" for shipments in late November and December. Do not rush to sign long-term contracts at last month's high rates; the spot market is currently more attractive.

2- Manage "Port Omission" Risks for Europe-Bound Cargo:

The biggest risk is not the rate, but cargo for Rotterdam being discharged in Antwerp or Le Havre.

For urgent shipments, consider switching to direct services to other ports or accepting higher fees for carriers with stable schedules. Always have a contingency budget for extra inland transport costs if the destination port changes.

3- Restructure E-commerce Models (Urgent Action):

Businesses selling to the EU must immediately recalculate Landed Costs under the no-exemption scenario.

Consider switching from a "direct shipment from bonded warehouse" model to an "official import into EU/US Fulfillment centers" model. While upfront costs are higher, it ensures delivery speed and legal compliance in the new landscape.

4- Leverage the 1-Year U.S.-China Stability:

Use this stable period to strengthen relationships with Chinese suppliers and optimize operational processes. However, continue to maintain rigorous legal records for paid IEEPA duties to be ready for future refund opportunities (ruling expected in 2026).

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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