Middle East Airspace Crisis Drags Gulf Airlines' Capacity Share Down to 4%

Widespread airspace closures across the Middle East have sparked a drastic shift in global air cargo flows. Notably, the capacity share of Gulf carriers has suffered a severe plunge, dropping from 12% to a mere 4%.

According to the latest market update from DHL, this sudden nosedive demonstrates how rapidly geopolitical risks can disrupt and reshape network dynamics, forcing airlines to immediately reroute capacity and rebalance operations across key trade lanes.

Capacity Shock Following Early-Year Growth

Global demand remained relatively robust in the early stages of 2026, with air cargo volumes rising 7% year-over-year (YoY) in February. Asia continued to act as the anchor for this growth, recording a 14% surge and firmly cementing its central role in the global supply chain.

However, this upward momentum has begun to show signs of stalling, with volumes sliding 6% YoY in Week 11. This is a direct market reaction to tightening capacity and escalating disruptions tied to the Middle East crisis.

Network Restructuring and the Routing Puzzle

Capacity constraints are currently becoming the dominant characteristic of the entire market. DHL data reveals that global air cargo capacity as of March 24 dropped by 7% YoY (Month-to-Date - MTD), with the Gulf region acting as the epicenter of the disruption. Airspace blockades and operational hurdles have significantly reduced lifting capabilities, compelling carriers to adjust their flight networks and reallocate their fleets.

This shift is most evident on the Asia-Europe trades, where capacity has been injected by 29% YoY as airlines attempt to compensate for severed connections through the Middle East. Nevertheless, analysts view this primarily as a compensatory adjustment rather than a genuine expansion of market-wide capacity.

Freight Rate Pressures and Localized Congestion

These spatial disruptions are directly impacting the pricing picture. In Week 12, the global average air freight rate rose by 7% week-over-week (WoW), hitting $2.84/kg. Concurrently, spot rates also climbed 6% to $3.38/kg. The surge in jet fuel costs, combined with longer detour routes to bypass no-fly zones, continues to create upward pressure on freight rates.

On a regional level, the operational landscape is facing several grey areas:

● Europe: Continues to endure persistent operational stress, as airspace restrictions squeeze available space and cause cargo backlogs.

● Asia: Strong cargo flows from China and capacity injections from dedicated freighters have helped stabilize certain flight corridors. However, localized congestion remains prevalent, with cargo dwelling for 7 to 10 days at major transit hubs.

● Americas: Facing extreme volatility on routes linking to the Middle East, while simultaneously recording severe capacity shortages on flight corridors to India and Southeast Asia.

See more:

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• International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 15/2026 | Phaata
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• Gulf Tensions: Iran Unilaterally Reconfigures Maritime Routes Through the Strait of Hormuz
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• US Gulf to West Coast South America Trade: Maersk Officially Implements Peak Season Surcharge (PSS)
• Ocean Freight Market Stalls: Overcapacity Outweighs the 'Hormuz Shock'
• COSCO updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Apr 2026
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• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Apr 2026

Source: Phaata.com (According to Air Cargo Week)

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