Trump's Tariffs Drive Container Imports to the US

Imports into major US container ports are expected to remain high as retailers try to speed up shipments to avoid new tariffs on China and other manufacturing countries, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates on Monday.

The trend of early imports has been ongoing since late last year and continues into 2025 with no signs of slowing down.

U.S. ports tracked by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) in December, excluding the Port of New York, New Jersey and the Port of Miami, which were not yet reported. That was down slightly, 0.9% from November but up a whopping 14.4% year-over-year, marking the busiest December on record.

Total container throughput at U.S. ports in 2024 is expected to reach 25.5 million TEUs, up 14.8% year-over-year and approaching the pandemic-era record of 25.8 million TEUs in 2021.

Impact of tariffs on imports

NRF vice president of supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said early imports are one of the measures retailers are taking to mitigate the short-term impact of tariffs.

“While we support the need to address the fentanyl crisis at our borders, new tariffs on China and other countries will mean higher prices for American families,” Gold stressed.

He also noted that retailers have implemented a number of strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including expediting the import of certain items. However, this has added to the challenges of warehousing and logistics costs.

Concerns about the possibility of further tariffs on imports from China are also prompting businesses to bring in goods sooner.

“There is more than one tariff,” Gold told FreightWaves. “Former President Trump proposed a universal basic tariff, increased tariffs on China and a number of other countries, and reciprocal tariffs. This creates a lot of uncertainty for retailers’ supply chains.”

Tariff developments and supply chain impact

Tariff concerns and the threat of a months-long strike by port workers have boosted early imports throughout December.

On February 1, the White House announced 25% tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on goods from China. However, tariffs on Canada and Mexico were suspended for 30 days starting February 3, while tariffs on China took effect on February 4.

Since the majority of retail goods from Canada and Mexico are shipped by truck and rail, the short-term impact on container traffic at US ports is expected to be minimal.

“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed or further delayed,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months.”

Meanwhile, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance reached a temporary contract agreement just days before the current contract expires on January 15. ILA members are expected to vote on the new contract later this month.

Container Import Forecast at US Ports

While January import figures have not yet been released, Global Port Tracker forecasts volumes at 2.11 million TEUs, up 7.8% year-over-year.

February — typically the slowest month of the year — is expected to reach 1.96 million TEUs, up a slight 0.2% despite factory closures in China for the Lunar New Year.

Import forecast for the following months:

- March: 2.14 million TEU (+11.1%)
- April: 2.18 million TEU (+8.2%)
- May: 2.19 million TEU (+5.4%)
- June: 2.13 million TEU (-0.6%)

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Freightwaves) 

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