WorldACD Report: Global Air Cargo Volumes and Rates Slowly Establish a New Equilibrium

The global air freight market gradually stabilized in mid-May after rebounding from East Asia's "Super Golden Week" holidays earlier in the month. Meanwhile, cargo capacity recovery has remained relatively sluggish against a geopolitical backdrop that continues to harbor multiple uncertainties.

Demand Recovers Amid Supply Chain Disruptions

According to the latest weekly statistics from WorldACD Market Data, total global air cargo volumes in Week 21 (May 18–24) remained virtually unchanged week-over-week (WoW), yet held about 2% higher year-over-year (YoY).

Notably, supply chain transit times in the US and Europe are currently hovering at their highest levels in recent months. This is primarily driven by ocean freight disruptions linked to geopolitical conflicts, alongside a broader trend of inventory front-loading.

These developments have helped sustain robust air freight demand. Specifically, cargo volumes out of the Asia-Pacific region in Week 21 grew by 5% compared to the same period last year.

The Rate Landscape: Spot Segment Continues Its Strong Rally

Despite prolonged disruptions to air cargo capacity traveling to and from the Gulf region, chargeable weight in the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region still managed a 2% WoW increase, though it ticked down 1% YoY.

On pricing, the market-wide average air freight rate held steady in Week 21 at $3.23/kg. However, compared to the same period in 2025, capacity bottlenecks, escalating jet fuel costs, and an increased reliance on dedicated freighters have driven this average rate up by 35%.

Based on WorldACD’s data pool of over 500,000 weekly transactions, the global average spot rate edged up another 1% in Week 21, reaching $3.75/kg. This uptick was primarily driven by the Africa (+4% WoW) and Asia-Pacific (+2% WoW) markets, with the Asia-Pacific spot rate reaching $5.16/kg.

On an annual basis, global spot rates are now up a staggering 50% YoY. Notably, the MESA region recorded the sharpest surge at 59% YoY, reaching $4.26/kg. In almost all other regions, spot rate increases exceeded 40%, with the sole exception of Central and South America (CSA), which saw a more modest 18% rise.

Challenges Resuming Capacity in the Gulf

On the supply side, total global air cargo capacity in Week 21 grew slightly by about 1% WoW. While dedicated freighter capacity remained virtually flat, passenger bellyhold capacity increased by roughly 2%.

The MESA region recorded the strongest capacity rebound among the world's major regions in Week 21, posting a 5% WoW increase.

However, when compared to the pre-conflict baseline (Week 7), the region’s total cargo capacity is still down by roughly 32%. This deficit stems predominantly from the Gulf, where capacity is currently sitting at just about half of its pre-war levels (-48%).

These figures underscore that restoring transport capacity in the Gulf remains a significant challenge amid the ongoing instability, even as carriers from outside the region actively inject capacity using dedicated freighter fleets.

Overall, global air cargo capacity in Week 21 remained about 3% higher YoY. However, this growth rate is less than half the pace recorded during the first two months of 2026, the period prior to the escalation of conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Asian Aviation)

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