WorldACD: The 2025 Peak Season Paradox – Global Air Freight Rates Rise Despite Falling Volumes

The global air cargo market is witnessing an intriguing paradox during the year-end peak season. According to the latest data from WorldACD Market Data (covering over 500,000 weekly transactions), global air freight rates rose by 1% in the two-week period ending November 23, 2025, reaching $2.68/kg. Notably, this price increase occurred against a backdrop of a 3% decline in chargeable weight.

This "disconnect" between rising rates and falling volumes is often a signal that capacity utilization is extremely tight, forcing shippers to accept higher prices to secure space. In fact, global load factors in November reached 63% – the highest level in over 30 months.

Regional Divergence

Compared to the same period last year (YoY), global rates increased by 6% while volumes fell by 3%. However, performance varied significantly by region:

•    Africa: Recorded the strongest rate performance with a 12% YoY increase, despite volumes growing a modest 1% over the past five weeks.

•    Middle East & South Asia (MESA): Rates jumped 9% YoY, despite a sharp 19% drop in chargeable weight from the region in the most recent two-week comparison.

•    North America & Latin America: Both regions recorded a 4% rate increase over the five-week period.

•    Asia-Pacific & Europe: Rates dipped slightly by 1%, even though the Asia-Pacific region still posted modest volume growth.

Asia-Pacific: Shifting Trade Flows

The Asia-Pacific market continues to dominate global cargo flows but is undergoing a significant reshaping due to U.S. tariffs and de minimis regulations.

•    Spot Rates: Remained elevated at around $4.00/kg in early November.

•    Southeast Asia Surge: While Northeast Asian hubs (China, Hong Kong, South Korea) recorded volume declines, origins in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore boomed, with volume growth ranging from 30% to 52% YoY on transpacific routes.

•    China-US Route: Spot rates peaked at $5.59/kg in early November, the highest level in 2025, reflecting peak season pressure, though still below the $5.90 level seen in 2024.

Capacity Challenges and 2026 Outlook

Global air cargo capacity grew only 5% year-on-year, failing to keep pace with demand. Airlines are prioritizing passenger networks, reducing bellyhold capacity on certain trade lanes. Simultaneously, the retirement of older freighters combined with delays in new aircraft deliveries is exacerbating the capacity shortage.

Looking ahead to 2026, industry forecasts suggest global air cargo demand will grow by 4% to 6%, significantly lower than the double-digit growth seen in 2024. This adjustment reflects ongoing uncertainties surrounding trade policies (particularly from the new U.S. administration), manufacturing activity, and consumer spending patterns.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has also warned that proposed tariffs on major trading partners like Canada, China, and Mexico could upend global supply chains and erode consumer confidence in the near term.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to WorldACD)

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