International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 47/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 47/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 47/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Recommendations by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 47/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) in week 47/2025 (from Nov 17 to Nov 23, 2025) held steady compared to the previous week, at $1,852/FEU.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 47/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 47 (Nov 17-23, 2025) confirmed an undeniable reality: market demand has become completely "immune" to tariff news and shows no signs of a year-end recovery. Rates continue to freefall, forcing carriers to play the General Rate Increase (GRI) card for December as a technical measure to halt the decline, rather than based on actual supply and demand fundamentals.

Supply and demand:

- Demand: The "Wait-and-See" Mentality Demand remains stable and flat. Importantly, the market did not record any volume surge in response to the anticipated tariff hikes on November 1 (which has now passed). Phaata believes shippers have shifted to a "wait-and-see" mentality. The absence of a demand-driven peak suggests U.S. inventories may be sufficient or purchasing power is weakening, eliminating the incentive for year-end imports.

- Supply: Pressure from Capacity Recovery Capacity is forecast to increase moderately in the coming month, and notably, fleet deployment levels are expected to exceed 90% in December. Phaata assesses that maintaining record-high capacity (above 90%) while demand is flat is a major risk. This will create immense downward pressure on the spot market if carriers do not implement aggressive last-minute blank sailings.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 47/2025 continued to fall sharply by 15.34% compared to the previous week, down to $2,020/FEU. This rate is up 4.30% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

November Reality: November rates continued their downward trend after the previous GRI was completely wiped out. The SCFI has recorded double-digit percentage declines for three consecutive weeks for both the U.S. West and East Coasts. This is a red alert signal for carrier profitability.

Carrier Strategy for December:

• Dec 1 GRI: Carriers have announced a new GRI.

• Nature of this Hike: Based on my experience, I affirm this is a "defensive commercial decision." The goal is not to increase profits, but a desperate attempt to slow down or stop the November price slide, aiming to bring rates back to breakeven or cover operating costs.

• PSS Pushed Back: The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) continues to be postponed until December 15.

With November rates softening rapidly and overcapacity persisting, the likelihood of a successful PSS or high GRI in December is quite low. Phaata forecasts that these surcharges will likely continue to be postponed or cancelled.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 47/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 47 marks the official end of the "duty-free low-value shipment" model into Western markets, as the EU announces a roadmap to follow the United States' lead. This move compels global e-commerce brands to restructure their supply chains immediately. In parallel, the Trump administration is implementing flexible tariff adjustments: granting reciprocal tariff exemptions for essential agricultural products to reduce consumer price pressure, while simultaneously pushing for new trade agreements to bolster "friend-shoring" supply chains.

1- E-commerce Restructuring: The EU "Clamps Down" on Low-Value Goods

This is the most significant systemic change, directly impacting B2C cargo flows from Asia. On November 13, the EU announced a roadmap to abolish the customs duty exemption for goods under €150.

Roadmap: A transitional solution starting in 2026, with full implementation by 2028 (aligning with the operation of the EU Customs Data Hub). This move comes shortly after the U.S. ended its de minimis regime, creating a unified Western front against cheap competition (primarily from China) and tax revenue leakage.

Operational Impact & New Costs:

• Processing Fees: In addition to import duties, businesses will bear an additional €2/package (for direct shipments) or €0.50/package (via EU warehouses), not to mention individual customs fees of member states.

• "Deemed Importer" Model: The EU will shift the responsibility for collecting and remitting duties and VAT to sales platforms/marketplaces. This forces platforms to integrate deeper into customs and compliance processes.

• IOSS Expansion: The Import One-Stop Shop (IOSS) mechanism will apply to all goods, with no value limit, aimed at simplifying VAT collection but tightening control.

Assessment: The business model based on shipping individual cross-border parcels to dodge taxes has officially ended. Businesses are forced to switch to a B2B2C model (importing large bulk shipments into Fulfillment centers in the EU for distribution) to optimize costs and ensure delivery speed.

2- U.S. Tactical Adjustments: Easing Inflationary Pressure & Strengthening Alliances

The U.S. is shifting from broad-brush tariffs to more sophisticated adjustments aimed at protecting consumers and reinforcing regional supply chains.

Reciprocal Tariff Exemptions for Agriculture (Retroactive to Nov 13): President Trump signed an executive order exempting reciprocal tariffs on coffee, bananas, fruits, and fertilizers. This is a pragmatic step to curb domestic food inflation. Taxing items that the U.S. does not produce in sufficient quantities (such as coffee from Brazil or Colombia) only increases the burden on U.S. consumers without providing protectionist benefits for domestic production.

Establishing New Trade Frameworks:

• Switzerland & Liechtenstein: Applying a flexible tariff mechanism (MFN or 15%), while capping tariffs at 15% for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors (when Section 232 cases are triggered).

• Latin America (Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador, El Salvador): The U.S. commits to removing reciprocal tariffs on goods the U.S. cannot produce itself, while demanding the removal of non-tariff barriers.

Strategy: This move reinforces the "Friend-shoring" and "Near-shoring" strategies, prioritizing regional partners and strategic allies to reduce reliance on other risky supply sources.

3- Legal & Geopolitical Update: Unknowns and Temporary Stability

IEEPA Case at the Supreme Court: Arguments have been heard, but a final ruling could take several months. If the Court rules against the Government, CBP will stop collecting the tax and must issue refunds. If the Government wins, the tariffs remain. However, the risk is that the Trump administration could trigger other statutes (Section 301, 232, 122...) to re-impose tariffs if they lose the IEEPA case.

Implementation of the U.S.-China "Truce": De-escalation measures (reducing Fentanyl tariffs, postponing rare earth controls, soybean purchases) are being implemented. This brings short-term stability (1 year) to the world's most important trade lane.

"Tariff Dividend" Proposal: The plan to distribute $2,000 to citizens remains vague and is more political rhetoric than economic reality at this stage.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 47 is operating under tight carrier control. Although purchasing power in the European retail market remains weak, the rate index has rebounded. The main driver is not demand, but aggressive capacity cuts (reducing from 1.2 million TEU to 1 million TEU). This is a strategic move to establish a new price floor, creating negotiation leverage for the upcoming 2026 long-term contracts.

On supply and demand: 

Demand: Booking volumes generally remain modest. The main cause is still the weak consumption of the European retail market. As the market enters the year-end "hibernation" phase, demand is not expected to spike. However, thanks to supply cuts, downward pressure on rates due to lack of demand has been significantly mitigated.

Supply: Carriers are implementing the strongest supply cuts of the quarter. Total deployed capacity in November has been pulled down to 1 million TEU, a significant drop from the 1.2 million TEU level in October. Not only reducing fleet size, carriers continue to execute tactical blank sailings. About 7% of sailings scheduled to depart from Week 47 to Week 51 have been cancelled. Phaata believes this carrier action aims to maintain utilization levels, preventing ships from sailing empty and crashing rates amid weak demand.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

Currently, equipment supply (empty containers) is in a balanced state. There are no severe shortages or excessive surpluses at major ports, indicating that logistics flows are operating stably at current low volume levels.

Freight Rate Developments: 

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 47/2025 reversed course to rise 5.71% to $2,339/FEU. This rate is up 20.79% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Phaata believes this price increase is driven entirely by capacity management (supply), not by a demand recovery.

Early December GRI - A Strategic Move: Carriers have announced a General Rate Increase (GRI) for early December. Why raise prices when demand is weak? This is a common move before the annual contract season. Carriers need to push spot rates higher to create a higher baseline, thereby pressuring shippers to sign long-term contracts at better rates for the carriers next year.

The Asia-North Europe market is being deliberately undersupplied. Current rising rates are "technical rates" due to supply intervention, not reflecting the true health of the Asia-Europe trade economy.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 47/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 47/2025 reversed to rise 1.90% from the previous week, to $641/FEU. This rate is up 1.94% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 47/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 47/2025 continued to rise by 2.97%, to $136/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is down 13.70% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 47/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 47/2025 is divided by two contrasting operational realities, while the legal environment is shifting strongly towards stricter compliance.

Polarization Between Two Major Trades:

• Asia - North America (TPEB): The market is declining and has become almost "immune" to tariff news. Carriers flooding capacity back into the market (expected >90% in Dec) has caused rates to plunge (-15%). This is a typical "buyer's market," where carriers are forced to launch defensive GRIs to hold on.

• Asia - Europe (FEWB): Is seeing an "artificial" price increase. Although demand is as weak as the U.S. trade, rates are rising (+5.7%) thanks to aggressive capacity cutting strategies (down to 1 million TEU). This is a carrier move to establish a high price floor ahead of the 2026 annual contract negotiation season.

The End of the "Tax-Free E-commerce" Era: The EU following the U.S. in removing duty-free status for low-value goods (<€150) is a permanent structural change. The business model based on tariff loopholes has officially closed globally.

Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Uncertainty: The 1-year U.S.-China de-escalation deal brings valuable stability. However, the IEEPA lawsuit at the Supreme Court (involving $90 billion in duties) is a massive unsolved financial variable.

Recommendations from Phaata

In this context, businesses need to apply different negotiation tactics for each market and restructure their compliance models.

1- Negotiation Tactic for U.S. Trade (TPEB): "Squeeze and Wait"

Don't rush to believe the Dec GRI: With the expected overcapacity, the chance of GRI success is very low. Reject price increases and request an extension of November's low rates.

Optimize Spot: The spot market is very cheap. Use it to optimize costs for year-end shipments instead of committing large volumes to fixed-rate contracts (NAC) right now.

2- Negotiation Tactic for Europe Trade (FEWB)

Don't be fooled by Spot rates: Spot prices are rising due to supply manipulation. When negotiating long-term contracts for 2026, use data on weakening European retail demand as the main argument to counter carrier rate hike requests.

Secure Space: In the short term (December), due to sailing cuts, prioritize space protection over haggling for a few dollars to avoid rollover risks.

3- Restructure E-commerce Models (Urgent Action):

Businesses selling to the EU must immediately recalculate Landed Costs under the no-exemption scenario.

Consider switching to importing large batches (B2B) into bonded warehouses/fulfillment centers in the EU for distribution, instead of sending individual small B2C parcels. This helps better control tax costs and delivery times in the new context.

4- Manage Financial Opportunity (IEEPA Lawsuit):

This is a huge opportunity. Importers into the U.S. (especially goods subject to Section 301, reciprocal tariffs) need to keep records meticulously and work with lawyers to be ready to file complaints/refund claims as soon as there is a signal from the Supreme Court. Don't wait until a ruling to start gathering paperwork.

5- Leverage the U.S.-China "Pause":

Use this 12-month stability to strengthen relationships with Chinese suppliers, but do not stop the "China Plus One" roadmap. 12 months will pass very quickly, and the root geopolitical risks remain.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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