International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 36/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 36/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 36/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 36/2025

The Drewry WCI continued to decline for the 12th consecutive week, falling another 1% to $2,104/FEU in week 36/2025 (1/9/2025-7/9/2025). The pace of declines has slowed and the market has been more stable than in previous weeks. This stability is the result of contrasting trends across different trade lanes. While a significant increase in trans-Pacific rates pushed the index up, a sharp decline in Asia-Europe rates offset the increase, resulting in an overall stable index.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 36/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North America container shipping market in Week 36 (from September 1 to September 7, 2025) witnessed a surprising and contrary to forecasts. While the fundamentals of the global market showed a clear weakening in demand, the shipping lines on the Trans-Pacific route shocked the market by successfully applying the General Rate Increase (GRI) on September 1, pushing up freight rates sharply. This does not reflect a market recovery, but shows a high determination and discipline in managing capacity of the shipping lines to protect profits.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: The peak before the Golden Week did not appear

There was no sudden increase in market demand as usual before the big Chinese holiday.

The impact of the early wave of shipments in Q2 remains heavy. Large inventories in the US have reduced demand for new orders, leading to a quiet summer and a bleak fall forecast.

New Risks for the Furniture Industry: A new risk factor that could impact future production is President Trump’s announcement of an investigation into imported furniture.

- On the Supply Side: Persistent Overcapacity and Schedule Risk

Operating capacity in September remained high (80%), continuing to create a market with excess capacity.

Demand has not yet caught up with capacity, so there is still room on board.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

A new operational risk that shippers need to be aware of is the possibility that shipping lines will not announce blank sailings until very close to the sailing date. This is a tactic to hold bookings until the last minute. However, it can cause shipping schedules to slide, seriously affecting the plans of businesses.

The overall situation has improved slightly. However, the differentiation remains: shortages are still a major concern for carriers such as CMA and HMM, while other carriers have better conditions.

Freight Rates: 

Ocean Freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America in week 36/2025 increased sharply by 20.95% compared to the previous week, to USD 2,148/FEU. This is up 1.9% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Contrary to all predictions, the September 1 GRI was successfully implemented: Instead of being adjusted downward after Labor Day, the General Rate Increase (GRI) of USD 800-900 was applied resolutely by the shipping lines, causing spot rates to skyrocket during the week. They succeeded in creating a temporary and intentional space scarcity right at the beginning of September, possibly through unannounced cancellations or tightening slot allocations, forcing shippers to accept the new rates.

The success of the September 1 GRI created a new premise. However, whether the market can absorb another round of Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on September 15 remains a big question mark.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update in-depth and fast market developments.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 36/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 36 (September 1-September 7, 2025) saw a major legal event: a Federal Court of Appeals ruled against the legality of President Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). While businesses will continue to pay these tariffs for now, their future and ability to get refunds has become a major strategic question, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the entire trade landscape.

1- This Week in Focus: The IEEPA Tariff Legal Battle Comes to a Close

Key Legal Event: The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has upheld the Court of International Trade’s (CIT) ruling that President Trump’s tariffs under the IEEPA are unlawful.

The Facts - A Paradox: The key thing for businesses to understand is that, despite being declared illegal, the ruling does not immediately impose a moratorium on enforcement. This creates a paradox: CBP continues to collect these duties today. The duties affected include “fentanyl” duties on Canada, Mexico, China, and reciprocal duties worldwide.

What’s Next: President Trump, in a move that shows the importance of the case, has asked the Supreme Court for an “emergency ruling.”

What’s Next and Financial Implications: If the Supreme Court upholds the lower court’s ruling, CBP would have to stop collecting all IEEPA duties, and businesses that have already paid duties would likely be eligible for duty refunds.

2- A Bright Spot: Section 301 Tariff Exemption Extension

Amidst the uncertainty, there is some good news. On August 28, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced that the existing exemptions from Section 301 tariffs (targeting China) will be extended to November 29, 2025, instead of expiring on August 31. This is good news, providing near-term certainty for importers whose products are included in the exemption list, giving them more time to plan.

3- The “New Normal” Continues

The big developments of last week are now part of the “new normal” business landscape:

De Minimis: The exemptions officially ended on August 29. The new reality has begun.

Other Threats: Threats of tariffs targeting the digital sector, Chinese rare earth magnets, and the furniture investigation remain, creating a continued risk environment.

US-EU Framework Agreement: The terms of this agreement remain the basis for further negotiations.

US trade policy is currently being shaped by a deep legal conflict. While the Trump administration continues to push its agenda, the very legal basis of a series of key tariffs is in doubt. This creates a dual reality for businesses: having to comply with current regulations while preparing for the possibility of their future repeal.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 36 (1/9-7/9/2025) has shown more clearly an accelerating discount cycle. The pre-Golden Week booking wave has not appeared as expected, leaving a market with weak demand and excess capacity. In response, shipping lines have not only competed on price but also made strategic moves, proactively announcing plans to cut capacity for the period after the holiday.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: Demand is decreasing, there are many available spaces

Demand is decreasing. The pre-Golden Week booking wave has not been observed.

As a result, there are still many spaces for the second half of September, a very clear signal of a weakening market.

- On the Supply Side: Carriers act early for October

Shipping lines have updated their blank sailings plans for October, right after the Golden Week holiday. Specifically, 6 Premier Alliance sailings and 1 Ocean Alliance vessel have been announced for Weeks 40 and 41. This is a strategic and proactive move, showing that carriers have anticipated a prolonged period of weak demand after the holiday and are acting early to protect freight rates, avoiding a complete collapse.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

Congestion at destination ports (Le Havre, Rotterdam, Hamburg) continues with high yard utilization, continuing to impact import shipping efficiency and potentially causing delays to final deliveries.

Yard utilization rates in major ports are high, particularly alarming in Southampton (90-95%), and also very high in Rotterdam (75-85%) and Hamburg (75-80%). This situation risks delaying inland transport and reducing the efficiency of subsequent calls.

The overall equipment situation has improved slightly. However, shortages remain a major issue for CMA and HMM, while other lines are in better shape. Carrier choice remains a key strategic factor.

Freight Rates:

Freight rates from Asia to Europe continued their decline for the fifth consecutive week in week 36/2025, falling sharply by 12.7% compared to the previous week, to USD 2,405/FEU. This is down 29.04% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data. This is a strong quantitative indicator that the market is going down. This is a very significant correction and shows that there is absolutely no heat from the peak season.

With September volumes flat, the FAK freight market is likely to remain at current low levels until the Golden Week holiday.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 36/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 36/2025 continued to increase by 4.27% compared to the previous week, to 683 USD/FEU. This price increased by 7.22% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 36/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Northern Europe to Asia freight rates continued to fall sharply by 12.94% in week 36/2025, down to $175/FEU. This price decreased by 23.91% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 36/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 36/2025 is shaped by two main factors: an extreme polarization between major shipping lanes and a fundamental regulatory shock to US trade policy.

Asia-North America: It has been operating contrary to all supply-demand logic. In a market with weak demand and excess capacity, shipping lines have shown an "iron will" by successfully imposing GRI on September 1, pushing spot rates up more than 20% for the week. This shows that the short-term power belongs to shipping lines with high discipline in managing capacity.

Asia-Europe: In contrast, this route is operating according to market rules, entering a deep and rapid discount cycle (down nearly 13% for the week). The cooling demand after the peak and the absence of a pre-Golden Week booking wave have caused rates to plummet.

On top of these two opposing operational realities is a legal shock. The Federal Circuit Court’s ruling that President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs were unlawful has shaken the foundations of a series of recent tariff policies.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires a dual strategy: responding to conflicting market dynamics while taking proactive legal action.

1. Apply a “Two-Scenario” Strategy to Two Major Markets:

For the North American market: Accept the new price level and manage operational risk. The “price shock” shows that shippers have lost their negotiating leverage in the short term. Budget for higher costs and be especially wary of last-minute cancellations by carriers to maintain virtual scarcity.

For the European market: Make the most of the discount cycle. This is clearly a “buyer’s market.” Be proactive in negotiating with logistics partners to secure the best prices for Q4 cargo, as this downward trend is likely to persist into Golden Week.

2. Respond to Legal Risks and Opportunities:

Businesses should work with customs consultants and trade lawyers to develop a tracking and documentation process. Be ready to file a claim for refund of IEEPA duties paid (including countervailing duties, “fentanyl” duties, etc.) as soon as a favorable final ruling from the Supreme Court or a stop-collection order is issued. Being prepared in advance will create a major competitive advantage.

3. Prepare for the Post-Golden Week Period:

Shipping lines on the European route have proactively announced cancellation plans for October. After Golden Week, demand is likely to decline further. Prepare for a potentially weaker market later in Q4, but also be wary of shipping lines tightening supply to prevent prices from falling too far.

4. Urgent Action on Policy Changes:

De Minimis: E-commerce businesses must ensure that new operating and cost models are in place. Work with logistics providers to understand customs clearance processes and tariffs that will apply to low-value goods.

Vertical Risk: Businesses in the furniture, renewable energy, and high-tech industries should closely monitor new US investigations and begin developing contingency plans.

5. Navigating the New Trading Playground:

Reassess supply maps: Businesses with global supply chains need to reassess their supply maps in light of new bilateral tariffs.

Prioritize Transparency: In an environment where anti-tax evasion measures are increasingly stringent, having a transparent supply chain and perfect origin records is a competitive advantage and an important defense.

6. Building "Defensive" Capabilities for the Future:

Phaata believes that resilience is now extremely important. Successful businesses in the new era will be those that build a flexible supply chain through diversification (both suppliers and logistics options), strategic partnerships, and real-time information visibility.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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