International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 37/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 37/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 37/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Market Reviews by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 37/2025

The Drewry World Ocean Freight Index (WCI) continued to decline for the 13th consecutive week, falling another 3% to $2,044/FEU in week 37/2025 (September 8-14, 2025). For the second consecutive week, spot rates on major trade lanes were mixed. While rates on the trans-Pacific trade lanes increased, rates on the Asia-Europe trade lanes decreased.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 37/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The TPEB market in Week 37 (September 8-14, 2025) continued to show signs of a weak market, with no significant spike in demand ahead of Golden Week. However, the most notable event of the week was not the supply-demand dynamics, but a major operational incident at the Port of Long Beach, a stark reminder of the unforeseen risks that always exist in the supply chain. On the freight rate front, the market is sending mixed signals, reflecting a tug-of-war between the reality of weak demand and the efforts of shipping lines to maintain rates.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: Pre-Golden Week peak not seen

The transportation market is facing an unconventional scenario: the pre-Golden Week peak has not been as expected.

The consequences of the early buying wave in Q2 are still being felt. The accumulation of large inventories by US importers to avoid tariffs has eliminated the need for new orders. This has led to a dull summer and early fall, lacking the large orders that are typical of the peak season.

In this context, the risks for the furniture industry have increased as President Trump has initiated an investigation into imports of this sector, which could affect future production.

- On the Supply Side: Prolonged Overcapacity and Schedule Risks

The supply-demand imbalance continued to be a prominent feature of the market in September. Operating capacity was maintained at 80%, a high threshold that caused significant pressure on excess capacity. Meanwhile, the demand side has not shown any signs of breaking through, leading to shipping lines being unable to fill their sailings.

To cope, capacity management through planned blank sailings is being implemented, a specific example is the Premier Alliance's decision to suspend PS5 service.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

A new operational risk that shippers need to pay close attention to is the possibility that shipping lines will not announce blank sailings until very close to the sailing date. This is a tactic to hold bookings until the last minute. However, it can cause shipping schedules to slide, seriously affecting the plans of businesses.

The overall situation has improved slightly. However, the divide remains: shortages remain a major concern for carriers such as CMA and HMM, while other carriers are in better shape.

Major Incident at the Port of Long Beach:

On September 9, approximately 75 containers fell off a ZIM-chartered vessel at the Port of Long Beach. This was not an isolated incident. The incident has three direct and serious implications for the shippers involved and is a valuable lesson for the entire industry:

- Extended delays: Shipments on the affected vessel and possibly other vessels in the area will face significant delays due to salvage and investigation operations.

- General Average Risk: This is the biggest financial risk. When a shipping line declares a General Average, all shippers with cargo on board (including undamaged containers) must contribute pro rata to cover the losses in order to salvage the voyage. The costs can be enormous.

This incident is a stark reminder that shipping cargo internationally without adequate insurance is an extremely risky venture. The cost of insurance is insignificant compared to the financial risk from an event like General Average.

Freight Rates: 

Ocean Freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America continued to increase by 5.26% week-on-week in week 37/2025, to $2,261/FEU. This is up 16.55% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

Carriers successfully implemented GRI on September 1. However, they have just announced to postpone the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on 15/9 until 15/10.

The postponement of PSS is a clear signal: the market is not strong enough to absorb a second price increase immediately after that. The success of GRI on 1/9 may be the result of temporary and intentional capacity tightening by shipping lines at that time. The expectation that "prices will increase further in the second half of the month" may be more of a wish of shipping lines than a forecast based on a solid foundation, to take advantage of the last bookings before Golden Week.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update in-depth and fast market developments.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 37/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 37 (September 8-September 14, 2025) marks a significant step forward in shaping the new US trade “order”. The days of threats and general negotiations are gradually passing, giving way to the implementation of specific bilateral agreements and legal battles at the highest levels. For businesses, this means adapting to a new reality with complex rules and immediate effects.

1- This Week in Focus: US-Japan Trade Agreement Officially Takes Effect (September 16)

This is the most important and most immediate development. President Trump signed an executive order last week to implement the trade agreement with Japan, which officially took effect on September 16 (this week).

Breaking down the terms:

- 15% base tariff: Most Japanese goods will be subject to the higher of the current Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff or 15%.

- Reduced auto tariffs: Tariffs on Japanese cars and auto parts will be reduced from 25% to 15%. These items will also be exempt from reciprocal tariffs.

- Concessions from Japan: Japan pledges to invest $550 billion in the US, increase agricultural purchases, and expand market access for US manufacturers.

Most notable - Retroactive application: A crucial provision is that the new tariff structure will be applied retroactively to Japanese goods imported into the US since August 7, 2025. This means that importers of Japanese goods in the past period may face a tariff adjustment or be eligible for a partial refund of the tariffs they paid.

2- IEEPA Tariffs Legal Battle Heads to Supreme Court

On September 9, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to take up a case challenging the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs.

Arguments are scheduled for early November. Most importantly, in the meantime, the IEEPA tariffs (including the countervailing duty and the “fentanyl” tax) will continue to be collected.

The fact that the Supreme Court has taken up the case shows its fundamental importance. The final outcome will determine the President’s authority to use tariffs as a foreign and economic policy tool for years to come, and could lead to a massive wave of refund requests.

3- Increased Complexity - Reciprocal Exemption List (Annex II)

Changes effective September 8: President Trump has revised Annex II - the list of products exempted from reciprocal tariffs.

- 52 new HTS codes have been added, but 131 HTS codes have been removed.

- Most copper products have been removed from the exemption list.

- The order introduces a crucial new provision: another 1,908 HTS codes can be eligible for exemption, provided the country of origin has completed a trade agreement with the US. This is an extremely powerful negotiating lever, creating a clear distinction between countries with and without agreements, pushing the remaining countries to quickly come to an agreement.

The US trade playing field is being formalized into a complex "multi-layered game". There are now specific rules for countries that already have agreements (like Japan), top-level legal battles over common taxes (IEEPA), and powerful levers to push the remaining countries to the negotiating table.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North Europe market in Week 37 (from 8/9 to 14/9/2025) witnessed a sharp and obvious decline. The decline in rates accelerated amid a severe weakening of demand with no signs of recovery before the Golden Week. Shipping lines, which dominated the game in July, have now had to switch to a defensive position and proactively seek cargo. The market focus has now shifted to strategic negotiations for long-term contracts in Q4.

On supply and demand: 

- On the demand side: Severely weakened demand

Demand has dropped significantly. Many forecasts confirm that there will be no recovery before the Golden Week holiday.

- On the Supply Side: Carriers Short on Cargo and Act Early for October

The clearest sign of market weakness is that there is still plenty of room for the second half of September and carriers are actively seeking additional cargo to fill their sailings.

Shipping lines have updated their blank sailings for October, right after the Golden Week holiday. Specifically, six Premier Alliance sailings and one Ocean Alliance vessel have been announced as blanks for Weeks 40 and 41. This is a strategic and proactive move, showing that carriers are anticipating a prolonged period of weak demand after the holiday and are acting early to protect rates, avoiding a complete collapse.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

Congestion at the destination ports (Le Havre, Rotterdam, Hamburg) continues with high yard utilization, which continues to impact the efficiency of import transport and may cause delays to final delivery.

Yard utilization at the main ports is high, particularly alarming at Southampton (90-95%), and also very high at Rotterdam (75-85%) and Hamburg (75-80%). This situation risks causing delays to inland transport and reducing the efficiency of subsequent calls.

The overall equipment situation has improved slightly. However, shortages remain a major issue for CMA and HMM, while other carriers are in better shape. Carrier selection remains an important strategic factor.

Freight Rates:

Freight rates from Asia to Europe continued their 6th consecutive week of decline in week 37/2025, falling sharply by 8.11% compared to the previous week, to USD 2,210/FEU. This is a decrease of 31.52% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data. This is a strong quantitative indicator that the market is going down. This is a very significant correction and shows that there is absolutely no peak season heat and supply-demand imbalance.

Phaata forecasts that the decline will continue. The spot freight market may decline by another 5-10% in the second half of September until the Golden Week holiday due to pressure from weak demand.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 37/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

North America (West Coast) to Asia Freight Rates in Week 37/2025 reversed to decrease slightly by 0.29% compared to the previous week, down to USD 681/FEU. This price increased by 7.92% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 37/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia in week 37/2025 reversed to increase by 4.00%, reaching 182 USD/FEU. This price decreased by 12.92% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 37/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 37/2025 is shaped by three main factors: a deep polarization between shipping lines, asymmetrical operational and regulatory risks, and a formalized trading playing field with increasingly complex rules.

Asia-North America: Operating in a paradoxical scenario. Weak supply-demand fundamentals (low demand, excess capacity) but freight rates are rising due to discipline and temporary capacity tightening measures by shipping lines. The biggest risks here are operational risks (such as the container incident at Long Beach) and the risk of artificially pushing up prices.

Asia-Europe: Operating in accordance with market rules, entering a natural and strong discount cycle (down more than 8% in the week). The market is completely in the hands of buyers, but the main risk is prolonged congestion at destination ports.

Trade Policy Playground Gets Codified: The threat phase is slowly passing, giving way to implementation. The US-Japan agreement that officially took effect this week is a typical example of the new bilateral trade "order". In parallel, the legal battle over IEEPA tariffs has reached the Supreme Court, creating a fundamental instability in the US tariff structure.

Operational Risks Are Always Present: The incident of 75 containers falling off a ship in Long Beach was a costly wake-up call, showing that no matter how volatile the market is, physical and financial risks (such as General Average) can always occur unexpectedly.

Recommendations from Phaata

This phase requires a multi-dimensional strategy, both flexible in responding to adverse market dynamics and proactive in legal issues and risk management.

1. Apply a “Two-Scenario” Strategy to Two Major Markets:

For North America: Manage risk and accept the new price level. Don’t fight the short-term price increase created by the carriers. Instead, focus on securing space and especially purchasing adequate cargo insurance to protect yourself against operational and financial risks such as General Average.

For Europe: Make the most of the discount cycle. This is clearly a “buyer’s market”. Be aggressive in negotiating to lock in the best prices for Q4 cargo, but be aware of the post-Golden Week cancellation plans announced by the carriers.

2. Urgent Action on Trade Policy Changes:

For Japanese goods: Importers of Japanese goods must act immediately to work with customs service units to handle the issue of retroactive tax application from August 7, recalculate costs and prepare for adjustment procedures or tax refund requests.

For IEEPA legal risks/opportunities: This is a huge potential financial opportunity. Businesses need to establish a tracking process and prepare documents now for all IEEPA taxes paid, ready for the scenario of tax refund requests if the final Supreme Court ruling is favorable.

3. Make Cargo Insurance a Top Priority:

The ZIM incident in Long Beach is a clear lesson. In a risky operating environment, shipping international goods without insurance is a huge risk.

4. Prepare for the Post-Golden Week:

Lines on the European route have proactively announced cancellations for October. After Golden Week, demand is likely to fall further. Be prepared for a potentially weaker market later in Q4, but also be wary of lines tightening supply to prevent prices from falling too far.

5. Navigating the New Trading Playground:

Reassess supply maps: Businesses with global supply chains need to reassess their supply maps in light of new bilateral tariffs.

Prioritize Transparency: In an environment where anti-tax evasion measures are increasingly stringent, having a transparent supply chain and perfect origin records is a competitive advantage and an important defense.

6. Building "Defensive" Capabilities for the Future:

Phaata believes that resilience is now extremely important. Successful businesses in the new era will be those that build a flexible supply chain through diversification (both suppliers and logistics options), strategic partnerships, and real-time information visibility.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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See more:

• Red Sea 2025: To Transit or Divert – The Maritime Industry's Conundrum
• Asia-U.S. Container Rates Face Heavy Downward Pressure for Second Half of the Year
• Major Maritime Incident at Port of Long Beach: 67 Containers Lost Overboard During Unloading
• Container Line Profits Plunged in Q2 2025
• HMM Restructures its Asia-North America Service Network: Suspends PS5 Service, Adjusts Several Others
• International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 36/2025 | Phaata
• Golden Week 2025: Market Braces for Last-Minute Blank Sailings on the Transpacific
• COSCO schedules: Vietnam - North America in Sep 2025
• COSCO updates Vietnam-North Europe sailing schedules in Sep 2025
• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Sep 2025

Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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