Maritime Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz Begins to Resume, but Challenges Remain

Source: 7deniz

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to show signs of recovery in recent days. However, just 48 hours after the United States and Iran signed the MOU, it is becoming increasingly clear that a substantial gap remains between the legal reopening of the waterway and the full resumption of commercial shipping operations.

While recent diplomatic developments have provided reasons for optimism, the maritime industry continues to contend with unresolved issues surrounding maritime security, insurance requirements, and operational procedures.

Vessel Traffic Is Improving, But Far From Normal

The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil supply and 25% of all seaborne oil trade. Before the conflict erupted in late February, the waterway accommodated an average of around 120 vessel transits per day.

According to data from AXS Marine, 25 vessels transited the strait on June 18 - the date the MOU officially came into effect. This represented the highest daily traffic volume since mid-April and was roughly five times higher than the average level recorded in early June.

Nevertheless, current traffic remains only about 21% of normal pre-conflict levels.

On the same day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly issued warning signals to several vessels operating near the strait, prompting a Hong Kong-flagged tanker and a Saint Kitts & Nevis-flagged bulk carrier to alter their routes.

From a diplomatic perspective, the cancellation of the anticipated U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva has further reinforced market caution.

Mine Clearance Operations Remain a Critical Factor

One of the most significant obstacles to restoring normal shipping operations is the potential presence of naval mines along key maritime routes.

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), led by the U.S. Navy, has advised vessels to limit the use of the IMO-designated Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) until mine clearance operations are completed.

JMIC has urged masters and crews to remain vigilant regarding the potential mine threat in the area and to prepare for an increased naval presence while clearance activities continue.

According to military experts, mine clearance operations are often far more complex and time-consuming than mine deployment itself. Some assessments suggest that fully clearing major shipping lanes could take up to six months.

During this period, many vessels may be required to use alternative shipping corridors designated by Iranian authorities or continue avoiding the Hormuz region altogether.

Permit Requirements and Insurance-Related Challenges

In addition to security concerns, shipowners and operators must also navigate new administrative requirements imposed by Iran.

Under directives issued by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz must submit permit applications at least 48 hours in advance and carry approved war-risk insurance coverage for the voyage.

PGSA has also instructed vessels to strictly adhere to designated navigation routes, warning that deviations may be considered regulatory violations.

Tim Wilkins, Managing Director of INTERTANKO, commented: "We don't know what this new 'insurance' actually is - or who, in practice, we're paying."

He added: "Paying insurance is a toll."

The situation is further complicated by the fact that PGSA remains subject to sanctions imposed by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

During the 60-day validity period of the MOU, PGSA is providing insurance coverage free of charge. However, once that period expires, any payments associated with the scheme could create compliance risks for Western companies.

War-Risk Insurance Premiums Remain Elevated

Prior to the crisis, war-risk surcharges for vessels operating in the Hormuz region typically ranged between 0.15% and 0.25% of a vessel’s hull value.

At the height of the tensions, premiums surged to between 3% and 8%, equivalent to approximately USD 3 million to USD 8 million per voyage for a large crude tanker.

According to BIMCO, transiting the Strait of Hormuz continues to be classified as a high-risk operation.

Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s Head of Safety and Security, stated: "The next step is for shipowners to be reassured that transiting the Strait of Hormuz is not only permitted, but also safe."

Shipping companies are also maintaining a cautious stance. Maersk has indicated that it is still too early to fully assess the impact of the MOU and that no significant adjustments have yet been made to its Middle East operations.

Most major ocean carriers continue to route vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

Diplomatic Progress and Operational Realities Remain Out of Sync

Industry observers believe that the MOU’s 60-day timeframe may not align with the pace required to resolve operational challenges on the ground.

Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), commented: "It is hard to see how this timetable is sustainable."

Meanwhile, Angad Banga, CEO of Caravel Group, noted: "We are maintaining enhanced manning and citadel readiness until we have 30 days of incident-free transits. Not three days."

Market Remains in a Wait-and-See Mode

Following the announcement of the MOU, Brent crude prices declined from above USD 100 per barrel to around USD 79–80 per barrel.

Nevertheless, the maritime industry remains cautious.

Haider Anjum, an analyst at Jyske Bank, observed: "The shipping companies probably want to wait until it is clear that the agreement holds, as we have already had Hormuz 'open' for a very short time twice before."

For maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to genuinely return to normal, the market will need additional time for mine-clearance operations, stabilization of war-risk insurance costs, resolution of permit-related uncertainties, and the restoration of carrier service networks.

The recent increase in vessel traffic is undoubtedly an encouraging sign. However, from both an operational and commercial standpoint, the normalization of shipping activities through Hormuz is likely to occur gradually rather than through an immediate return to pre-crisis conditions.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Tech Times)

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