WorldACD: Asia-US Air Freight Rates Rise for 6th Consecutive Week

Global air cargo spot rates, particularly from the Asia-Pacific region, continued to edge up in the second half of November. This trend occurred despite a slight decline in demand from China and Hong Kong to the US during the final full week before the Thanksgiving holiday (Nov 27) and major retail events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

According to the latest figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, average spot rates from Asia-Pacific origins to the US rose for the sixth consecutive week. Specifically, in Week 47 (Nov 17-23), rates increased by another +3% week-on-week (WoW), reaching $5.63/kg.

The primary drivers of this price increase came from the following markets:

•    Japan: +14% WoW

•    Singapore: +9% WoW

•    Hong Kong: +7% WoW

•    South Korea: +6% WoW

•    China: Stable (+1% WoW)

This increase contributed to pushing the global average spot rate up +2% (WoW) to $2.93/kg.

Year-on-Year Price Gap Narrows Significantly

A notable bright spot in this week's data is the significant narrowing of the price gap compared to the previous year. Since early May, spot rates from Asia to the US have been consistently lower than in 2024 due to the impact of higher import tariffs and the US tightening of de minimis regulations, which led to a drop in imports from China and Hong Kong.

In fact, since late June, spot rates on this lane have typically been -15% to -20% lower year-on-year (YoY). However, for the first time in 22 weeks, this deficit narrowed to single digits in Week 47, standing at just -8% lower (YoY). This suggests the market is gradually absorbing policy shocks and rates are finding a new equilibrium.

Volumes to the US: Signs of Peaking, But Southeast Asia Still Booms

In terms of tonnages, Week 47 recorded slight declines from major export hubs: China down -4% and Hong Kong down -1% (WoW). Conversely, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan continued their recovery momentum.

Notably, Southeast Asian markets that have been "booming" in recent months, such as Vietnam (-7%), Thailand (-5%), and Malaysia (-14%), also recorded week-on-week declines. WorldACD suggests that shipping volumes on this route may have peaked for the year.

However, on a year-on-year basis, total volumes from Asia-Pacific to the US remain significantly higher (+4%). The long-term growth driver remains the supply chain shift to alternative markets:

•    Vietnam: +52% YoY

•    Singapore: +43% YoY

•    Taiwan: +40% YoY

•    Thailand: +37% YoY

•    Malaysia: +17% YoY

Europe Lane: Strong Growth from Hong Kong and Taiwan

On the Asia-Pacific to Europe lane, spot rates also continued their upward trend (+2% WoW), averaging $4.39/kg, supported by markets in Malaysia (+10%), Japan (+8%), Taiwan, and Vietnam (both +7%).

Regarding volumes, this lane maintained good momentum with a +7% increase (YoY) in Week 47. The most impressive highlight was the Hong Kong to Europe market, which recorded the largest absolute volume growth at +18% (YoY), and Taiwan with growth of +21% (YoY).

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Source: Phaata.com (According to WorldACD / AJOT)

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