Xeneta: Freight Rates Could Fall if Strikes at US East Coast Ports Averted

Photo: REUTERS/Aly Song
 

Strikes at ports on the US East and Gulf Coasts – which had the potential to cause economic and supply chain crises – have been called off, raising hopes that the surge in container freight rates will level off or decline, according to Xeneta.

The strikes were expected to begin on January 15 and force the closure of ports from Maine to Texas. However, this was averted after a tentative agreement on a new six-year contract was reached between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), which represents port workers, and the United States Maritime Union (USMX).

Data from Xeneta shows that the average spot rate from Asia to the US East Coast has increased by 26% since December 14, 2024, and is expected to increase further if strikes continue.

“The agreement between the ILA and USMX must be welcomed because a strike had the potential to be a supply chain and economic disaster, but it still highlights the difficulties facing shippers in managing supply chain risk,” said Emily Stausbøll, Senior Shipping Analyst, Xeneta.

Stausbøll also said that the average spot rate on the Asia-US East Coast trade has jumped 26% since mid-December, reaching $6,800 per 40-foot (FEU) container. If a strike occurs, carriers are prepared to impose additional disruption surcharges of up to $3,000 per FEU, making it extremely difficult to protect supply chains and control transportation costs in an environment of high uncertainty and risk.

She also noted that spot rates may decline in the near term, but shippers will still face other threats to their supply chains in 2025. “Looking ahead, it is likely spot rate growth will now soften on trades into the US from the Far East, suggesting a brighter outlook for shippers negotiating new long term contracts,” she said.

Signs of a weakening global market in 2025 were also seen in the decline in average spot rates from Asia to Northern Europe in January, after soaring 51% between October 31 and December 1 last year.

Emily Stausbøll concludes that shippers need to be cautious, as even a small change could send freight rates soaring again, especially given the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea region and Trump’s return to the White House, which could escalate the US-China trade war.

See more:

• International shipping and logistics market update - Week 2/2025
• Trans-Pacific Container Rates Forecast to Rise Ahead of New US Tariffs
• Container Freight Rates Could Fall as US Port Strikes Averted
• Air Cargo Sees Wave of New Routes Between Europe and Asia
• Shipping Lines Adopt Surcharges Ahead of East Coast Strike Threat
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• Early Tet demand continues to put pressure on container rates on Asia-US trade
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• Growing demand could drive up air freight costs for shippers by 2025
• Maersk: Lunar New Year, labor disputes and port congestion to challenge European shipping market in 2025
• IATA: Air cargo volumes forecast to grow 5.8% in 2025
• Air Cargo Takes ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach to US Tariffs and Positive Demand Outlook for 2025

Source: Phaata.com (via InsideLogistics)

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