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Trans-Pacific rates edged up slightly last week, and are now around 15% higher than early December, following successful General Rate Increases (GRIs) in mid-month.


Pressure from early Tet and US tariff policy


Rate increases and reports of full vessels so early in the Lunar New Year may reflect a trend of shippers pushing ahead with shipments ahead of President-elect Trump’s tariff hikes next year. This week, Trump suggested the US should reclaim the Panama Canal to counter China’s growing influence there.

Carriers expect that demand ahead of the Lunar New Year in January will support new rate hikes, with increases expected to range from $1,000 to $3,000 per FEU. Despite strong volumes and some signs of pressure on rail, operations at US ports remain smooth, with terminal operators reporting readiness for any upcoming volume increases.


Rate Changes on Other Trades


Transatlantic rates, which have been stable since mid-October, could rise in January as several carriers have announced mid-month disruption surcharges in anticipation of the ILA dockworkers strike. Some have suggested that the alliance restructuring in February could cause disruption. MSC has announced a $2,000 per FEU disruption surcharge effective January 18 for containers shipped on the transatlantic trade.

Asia-Europe and Mediterranean container rates have fallen 3%-7% from their peaks during the early December GRIs, although there has been no significant increase in mid-month rates. However, recent bad weather has caused some moderate congestion at European hubs.

On all of these routes, the need to divert via the Red Sea remains the biggest driver, with rates remaining double their year-on-year levels. While no military intervention has restored safety for vessels transiting the region, both Israel and the US have stepped up direct strikes on Houthi positions in recent days.


Airfreight: Demand is high but rates are starting to cool


Freightos Air Index data shows that airfreight rates on the trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic routes have started to fall from their highs earlier in the month as the peak season comes to an end. However, prices from China to Europe remained high at nearly $5/kg last week.

Some observers predict that early push ahead of US tariff hikes will continue to keep demand and air freight rates high into the new year. In addition, significant tariffs on Chinese goods could contribute to a surge in global air freight volumes, as intra-Asia shipments of components from China are likely to surge.

 

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Source: Phaata.com (via Freightos)

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