DSV forecasts flat air freight demand and capacity in 2025

Source: Aviation Business News

DSV predicts flat air freight volumes and capacity next year, but the supply-demand balance could remain under pressure.

In its regular market outlook, the Denmark-based forwarder said global air freight trade will gradually return to normal by 2025, after seeing volume growth this year thanks to e-commerce and the Red Sea shipping crisis.

Challenges from e-commerce and supply chain changes

On e-commerce, DSV said many markets have reached high levels of penetration, which will limit future growth opportunities. In addition, increasingly stringent customs and compliance standards, such as the possible tightening of de minimis regulations by the United States, will add complexity and costs.

On the modal shift due to the Red Sea crisis, DSV said supply chains are now adapting to longer transit times as ships have to circumnavigate southern Africa. This will result in volumes shifting from air to sea freight as companies become better prepared to deal with the challenges.

Unchanged capacity and supply-demand pressures

DSV said air freight capacity would grow by 7% year-on-year in 2024, below the double-digit volume growth seen this year. However, the company expects capacity to remain flat through 2025 as production issues at Boeing delay deliveries of the 777-200 freighter. At the same time, next-generation freighters will not arrive until 2026, and existing aircraft are already operating at full capacity, with no room for additional flights.

DSV also noted that cargo load factors are already high, leaving little room for optimising capacity.

“With capacity expected to remain flat and possibly decline as older aircraft are retired due to age restrictions, any increase in demand will put additional stress on the market,” the company said. “However, if demand falls, operators may park ageing aircraft to balance supply and demand.”

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Source: Phaata.com (via AirCargoNews)

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