2026 Global Logistics Market Outlook: 5 Key Trends by Transportation Mode

More favorable freight market conditions won't guarantee a smooth ride for logistics managers in 2026.

While transportation capacity is currently available and shipper-friendly contract rates are within reach for parcel, ocean, air, rail, and truckload needs, uncertainty driven by tariffs, surcharges, and service risks could pose hurdles for moving freight across all modes.

So, what does that mean for logistics managers? Supply Chain Dive spoke with several industry experts to gain an overview of the 2026 logistics market and learn how shippers can prepare for what lies ahead. Here are the trends to watch across each mode of transport.

1. Last-Mile Delivery Costs Will Continue to Escalate

Shippers are expected to feel the "pain" of escalating last-mile delivery rates in 2026 as rate hikes and additional surcharges from FedEx and UPS begin to take effect.

The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index forecasts that ground parcel shipping rates in Q1 will surge further after hitting record levels in Q4 2025. Prices this quarter are projected to be 38.9% higher than the index’s January 2018 baseline, representing a 5.4% year-over-year increase.

This upward trend is putting pressure on shippers. According to Kenneth Moyer, partner and supply chain leader at LJM Group, a decade ago, transportation typically did not rank among the top 5 expenses. However, today, transportation is often in the top 3, especially for e-commerce businesses.

A contributing factor to this shift is the increasing pace of rate adjustments by carriers. This means annual "General Rate Increases" (GRI) do not tell the whole story of how a shipper's transportation costs might change throughout the year, according to Paul Yaussy from Loop.

Despite this, experts suggest shippers still have opportunities to secure better rates during negotiations. Mr. Moyer stated: “The pricing environment right now is still very, very favorable for shippers. It does take a little longer and take a little more effort to get concessions than it did the last few years, but they’re still out there to be had.”

2. Ocean Freight Capacity Increasing

In 2026, ocean shippers will be well-positioned to negotiate contract rates, typically occurring from March to May, according to Hind Chitty, Senior Manager at Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. She noted this would be particularly true on the Transpacific eastbound trade lane.

Ms. Chitty also noted that the multi-year capacity oversupply in the shipping industry will persist in 2026. 

Despite this, new transport capacity is still entering the market. According to Guillaume Bournisien, managing director of freight forwarding in the US and Canada for Geodis, capacity growth is projected at 3.7% in 2026. While this rate is lower than the 7% growth seen in 2025, it will still inject an additional 1.5 million TEUs into the market. Capacity is set to expand even further in 2027 with an expected growth of 8%.

Unless there is a significant market disruption, ocean freight will continue to face overcapacity, relieving pressure on rates. However, Mr. Bournisien warned that ports and trucking companies working with ocean shippers are currently operating at maximum levels. Therefore, any disruption to the ocean freight market in 2026 would quickly create a "very messy situation."

To maintain agility, Ms. Chitty advises shippers to closely monitor operational indicators to avoid delays and extra costs. Instead of worrying about rates, shippers should focus on schedule reliability.

3. Air Cargo Flows Shift Due to Complex Networks

Guillermo Ochovo, Director at Cargo Facts Consulting, shared that air cargo shippers will have to navigate operational volatility in 2026 as networks become increasingly complex due to shifting trade policies, geopolitics, export controls, and other risks.

Because regional disruptions can now have global impacts, air cargo demand will be rerouted, leading to a prioritization of multi-hub networks over linear options. Nevertheless, after years of extreme volatility, the air cargo market has moved out of recovery mode and has generally stabilized with low single-digit growth forecasts.

According to Mr. Bournisien, shippers must be proactive and plan air shipments more strategically to avoid excessive costs. He shared: “I think now it’s clear for everybody that you cannot avoid the disruption — it will come your way. But it’s about continuing to deliver when disruption becomes the norm, which is now the case today.”

Mr. Ochovo added that shippers effectively using advanced analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to optimize fleets and adjust networks will be best equipped to protect margins and manage risk. “Shippers are now looking into flexibility, transparency, and those expectations are not going away anytime soon.”

4. Rail Normalization and the UP-NS Merger "Specter"

Overall, rail freight is expected to face a more normalized environment in 2026. Currently, industrial production, inventory management, and energy markets are shaping rail freight volumes.

Rand Ghayad, Chief Economist at the Association of American Railroads (AAR), said: “With inventories leaner, shippers are placing more value on reliable, cost-effective transportation, which directly affects rail traffic patterns.”

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the regulatory process surrounding the potential merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern (UP-NS) in 2026 - a deal that could create the first transcontinental railroad in the United States.

Although the UP-NS merger application was temporarily rejected by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) due to missing information, Scott Jensen from the American Chemistry Council (ACC) believes this is an early sign of the board's intent to conduct a thorough review. Mr. Jensen noted that past mergers have negatively impacted rail networks and customers, causing prolonged service issues.

5. Trucking: Carrier Survivability and Reliable Capacity

In 2026, shippers will be less concerned with hunting for rock-bottom trucking rates and instead will prioritize reliable transport capacity, according to Dean Croke, Principal Analyst at DAT iQ.

Mr. Croke suggests that carrier survivability is becoming a growing concern as margins thin and inflation rises. Many carriers have filed for bankruptcy in the last two months.

Mr. Dean Croke emphasized: “I just think the survivability of this current market diminishes substantially.”

Carrier relationships will be vital in 2026. Meanwhile, the market is also awaiting a Supreme Court decision regarding Mr. Trump's use of tariffs and the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this summer.

Avery Vise, Vice President of Trucking at FTR Transportation Intelligence, assessed that this uncertainty is keeping manufacturers and industrial shippers on the sidelines.

Mr. Vise concluded: “So we really do see another year of this gnawing uncertainty sort of constraining investment in constraining freight growth and that’s really more on the industrial side, on the consumer side.”

See more:

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• Maersk Takes Over Two Panama Canal Gateway Ports Following Court Ruling
• Port of Savannah Wraps Up 2025 with Second-Highest Throughput in History
• COSCO schedules: Vietnam - North America in Feb 2026
• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Feb 2026
• COSCO updates Vietnam-North Europe sailing schedules in Feb 2026
• Port of Singapore 2025: Setting Double Records in Container Throughput and Bunkering
• International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 4/2026 | Phaata
• Indian Logistics Sector Eyes Policy Stability and Infrastructure Push in 2026
• CNC Enhances JTX Service: Direct Call to Sihanoukville and Optimized Transshipment via Vung Tau
• DHL Global Forwarding Launches Multimodal 'Truck-Air' Service: A New Bridge for the Asia-Europe Route

Source: Phaata.com (According to Supply Chain Dive)

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