International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 48/2025 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 48/2025

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 48/2025

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Recommendations by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 48/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) in week 48/2025 (from Nov 24 to Nov 30, 2025) decreased by 2% from the previous week, to $1,806/FEU. This decline was primarily due to falling rates on the Transpacific and Asia-Europe routes.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 48/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 48 (Nov 24-30, 2025) showed that the November rate hike efforts have failed, and rates are sliding. Despite the reality of weak demand, carriers are still planning to increase capacity and apply a GRI on Dec 1. However, given current fundamentals, this appears to be a defensive move rather than an offensive strategy based on market strength.

Supply and demand:

- Demand: Demand remains stable and flat. The key point is that the market has shown no positive reaction to the tariff hike news from Nov 1. This confirms that Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) are adopting a "wait-and-see" mentality. There is no demand-led peak in this year-end period. U.S. inventory levels seem sufficient, and importers lack the incentive to rush shipments.

- Supply: Forecasts for the coming month indicate a significant capacity increase. Fleet deployment levels in December are expected to range from 80% to 90%. In a weak demand context, maintaining such high capacity is a major risk. It shows carriers are prioritizing market share and cash flow over disciplined yield management. Overcapacity will continue to be the main theme of December.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 48/2025 continued to fall sharply by 6.58% compared to the previous week, down to $1,887/FEU. This rate is down 9.93% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

November Reality: November rates continued their downward trend after the previous General Rate Increase (GRI) was completely wiped out by the end of the month. This is proof that demand is insufficient to absorb any price hikes.

December Scenario:

• Carriers are still expected to proceed with a GRI. This is a "trial by fire". Carriers are forced to announce increases to establish a new ceiling and stop the freefall, even knowing the success probability is low. The execution of this GRI will depend entirely on booking developments in the coming days.

• PSS Continues to be Postponed: The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) remains suspended until December 15. This repeated delay is a tacit admission that the "peak season" effectively no longer exists.

The market is advantageous for shippers. With abundant capacity (80-90%) and flat demand, there is natural downward pressure on rates. Current announced rate hikes (GRIs) are more "technical" and "psychological" in nature than reflective of supply and demand reality.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 48/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 48 marks the spread of the trend to end duty-free status for low-value goods to the UK, creating a unified US-EU-UK front against the cheap e-commerce model. Meanwhile, Washington is showing strategic flexibility: willing to lower steel tariffs for the EU to protect U.S. tech giants, and exempting agricultural tariffs for Brazil to stabilize domestic prices.

1- Domino Effect: The UK "Kills" Duty-Free for Low-Value Goods Following the U.S. (August) and the EU (early November), the UK is the next major economy to join this wave.

The UK announced a roadmap to abolish duty-free imports for goods under £135, expected to be completed by March 2029.

Currently, these goods are only subject to VAT. The explosion of small parcels has forced the UK government to reform to protect revenue and trade fairness.

A public consultation will run until March 2026 to define data collection and compliance processes.

Assessment: The era of "legal tax avoidance" for Cross-border E-commerce is coming to an end globally. Businesses can no longer rely on this loophole as a price competitive advantage. Long-term strategy must shift to supply chain optimization and local fulfillment.

2- New U.S. Tactic with EU: "Steel for Data" U.S. trade policy is becoming more sophisticated, shifting from unilateral imposition to transactional diplomacy.

The U.S. is leaving open the possibility of reducing steel and aluminum tariffs for the EU.

The EU must adjust its approach to digital regulations (like the Digital Services Act - DSA, Digital Markets Act - DMA) to ensure "balance" and not disadvantage U.S. tech companies.

This is a "de-escalation" compared to tariff threats in August. The U.S. is using industrial tariffs (steel/aluminum) as leverage to achieve goals in the digital sector. Both sides are also finding common ground in dealing with Chinese overcapacity.

3- Brazil and Agriculture: Pragmatic Adjustment to Fight Inflation

Event (Retroactive to Nov 13): President Trump issued an order expanding the list of exemptions from the 40% additional tariff on Brazil.

Beneficiaries: Coffee, beef, and various agricultural products.

Dual Impact: Brazilian goods on this list are now completely exempt from both IEEPA tariffs (10% reciprocal tariff and 40% additional tariff).

Assessment: With Brazil supplying 22% of U.S. coffee imports, this move is not a political concession, but an essential economic step to curb food inflation in the U.S. ahead of the holidays.

4- Other Strategic Developments

EU & E-commerce: The EU is accelerating its roadmap with a transitional solution in 2026 and an expanded IOSS system. Exporters to the EU need to prepare for new compliance data reporting requirements.

New Trade Frameworks (Switzerland, Latin America): These frameworks are strengthening the "Friend-shoring" network, creating specific tariff incentives (like a 15% cap for Swiss pharma) to attract high-end industries.

IEEPA Lawsuit: Remains the biggest "unknown." Businesses must still pay taxes but should maintain a readiness posture for a refund scenario if the Supreme Court rules against the administration.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 48 (Nov 24-30, 2025) is operating in a more positively stable state than in previous months. Demand is recovering gradually, supported by shifting global trade flows. However, the highlight of the week lies not on the demand side, but in the carriers' capacity management discipline. Maintaining GRI hikes in December despite a slight dip in rate indices shows their ultimate goal right now is to establish a higher price floor as a basis for 2026 long-term contracts.

On supply and demand: 

Demand: The market recorded a moderate recovery, not a full-blown boom but much more stable than the U.S. trade. The most important underlying driver is the adjustment in Asia's export structure. We are seeing a portion of cargo volume gradually shifting from Transpacific routes to European routes. This may be a consequence of businesses diversifying markets to avoid tariff risks in the U.S., helping to maintain a stable base volume for Europe. News of the EU removing the duty-free threshold for low-value goods (expected as early as 2026) is starting to create early demand stimulation psychology, which could boost import volumes into Europe in the medium term.

Supply: Amid only slightly improved demand, carriers are proactively deploying capacity control measures to lift spot rates. The 10% weekly capacity cut in late November and blank sailing plans in December are calculated steps to support the General Rate Increase (GRI) effort.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

The empty container supply situation is balanced. However, port congestion in Europe persists, putting pressure on the supply chain. For carriers, current congestion is an unwelcome "ally." It helps absorb excess capacity naturally and creates a plausible excuse to maintain higher freight rates.

Freight Rate Developments: 

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 48/2025 fell slightly by 1.11% to $2,313/FEU. This rate is up 19.66% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data. This is just a technical fluctuation. In reality, most carriers are adamant about maintaining the GRI level for December.

Carrier Strategy: Through a combination of blank sailings and space management, carriers are regaining short-term pricing power. They are creating a more cautious rate environment for shippers, forcing the market to accept prices above rock bottom.

Importance of December: The spot market in December plays a critical role in shaping the 2026 annual contract negotiation season. Carriers will continue to push for higher GRIs, even knowing they cannot be 100% applied. The goal is to anchor market psychology at a high price level, thereby raising the floor for long-term fixed contracts.

Phaata assesses that the Asia-Europe market is in a strategic "price-making" phase. Real demand is only average, but rates will be held steady or increase slightly thanks to strong supply-side intervention. December will be the pivotal month determining logistics costs for the entire year 2026.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 48/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 48/2025 reversed to fall slightly by 0.62% from the previous week, down to $637/FEU. This rate is down 3.34% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 48/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 48/2025 continued to rise by 2.94%, to $140/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is down 7.89% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 48/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 48/2025 reflects a multi-dimensional picture: the weakening of peak season demand, carriers' strategic calculations for the new year, and the systematic tightening of trade policies.

Polarization Between Two Major Trades:

• Asia - North America: Has hit the bottom of the doldrums. Peak season does not exist, and overcapacity (80-90%) is driving rates down. Carrier rate hike efforts are merely weak defensive moves. This is a market where shippers have a major advantage.

• Asia - Europe: Is in a strategic "price-making" phase. Although demand is only recovering slightly, carriers are using capacity management discipline to anchor high prices, setting the stage for the 2026 contract negotiation season.

The End of the "Tax-Free E-commerce" Era: With the UK joining the U.S. and EU in removing duty-free status for low-value goods, the cheap cross-border e-commerce model has officially closed globally. This is a long-term structural change, forcing businesses to redesign supply chains.

Pragmatic Tariff Policy: The U.S. is shifting to a more pragmatic approach: using tariffs as leverage for tech negotiations with the EU and relaxing them for essential goods (Brazilian agriculture) to fight inflation.

Recommendations from Phaata

This year-end period is not a time to rest, but a golden time to restructure and negotiate for 2026.

1- 2026 Contract Negotiation Strategy (Especially for Europe Trade):

Beware of December Spot Rates: Be clearly aware that current high rates on the Europe trade are due to supply intervention, not strong demand. Use data on weak European retail demand as a negotiating tool.

Split the Risk: Consider signing contracts with flexible ratios (e.g., 50% fixed, 50% floating) to leverage potential price drops after Lunar New Year when new vessel supply continues to increase.

2- Seize Opportunities for Good Prices on U.S. Trade:

For U.S.-bound cargo, be patient. With current overcapacity, spot prices will continue to be more attractive than contract rates. Use the spot market to optimize costs for year-end shipments.

3- Restructure E-commerce Models (Act Now):

B2C exporters need to switch to an official B2B import into Fulfillment warehouse model in the destination market (UK, EU, US). This helps control unit tax costs and ensure delivery speed, a vital factor in the new context.

4- Review Product Portfolios for Tax Refunds:

Importers of agricultural products from Brazil and other countries should immediately review declarations to take advantage of new reciprocal tax exemption rules. This is a critical cash flow recovery opportunity.

5- Prepare for January 2026:

Although the U.S. market is currently weak, pay attention to the short-term peak before Lunar New Year (January). Plan early to avoid being passive if carriers suddenly cut capacity for the holiday.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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