Relationship Between Global GDP and Container Demand

Before the pandemic, a rough guideline suggested that global container demand generally mirrored the growth of global GDP. In the past, there was even a multiplier applied to this relationship. But what about the present scenario?

Sea-Intelligence's analysts offer insights into this matter. They explain, "Since we know the global GDP growth in 2020-2022 (and using the current estimate for 2023), we can calculate how much global TEUs should have grown versus 2019 if they had followed the GDP development. Knowing the actual TEU growth versus 2019, this in turn allows us to calculate how much global TEUs grow in excess of what the global GDP would otherwise indicate."

They go on to reveal their findings, "What we see is that compared to the growth rate one would expect based on global GDP, the container markets are -5.9% below"

Source: Sea-Intelligence.com, Sunday Spotlight, issue 635

Nevertheless, assessing global demand purely through TEUs is somewhat simplistic, as Sea-Intelligence analysts assert that TEU*Miles provides a more meaningful metric, particularly when considered in the context of the global container vessel fleet capacity.

In Figure 1, they calculate the disparity between the growth rate implied by GDP and the actual growth rate of TEU*Miles.

"As of August 2023, global demand has a shortfall of -6.8% compared to a growth pattern which would have followed global GDP growth. This is not good for the carriers, which are in the process of taking delivery of a sizable orderbook," Sea-Intelligence underscores in its analysis.

Source: Phaata.com (According to Sea-Intelligence, ContainerNews)

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