The Overturning of IEEPA Tariffs: A Dual Shock to the Air Freight Supply Chain

The US Supreme Court's decision to strike down tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has captured global attention. However, for the air freight sector across the Americas, the reality is far more complex, and the puzzle of uncertainty remains far from completely resolved.

Historic Ruling and Alternative Tariff Moves

When the US Supreme Court delivered its ruling on Feb 20, 2026, the business and trade communities reacted swiftly, with many expressing relief. In a 6-3 decision in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the Court ruled that IEEPA does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs - a power constitutionally reserved for Congress.

As Chief Justice John Roberts wrote, IEEPA "contains no reference whatsoever to tariffs or tariff rates," and prior to the current administration, no president had ever interpreted the act to grant themselves such power.

For transport operators and importers across the Americas - who have spent the better part of the past year grappling with a highly volatile tariff environment - this ruling felt like the clearing of a storm. However, the reality is not that simple.

Within hours of the ruling, President Trump issued a new proclamation under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a 10% global import surcharge effective Feb 24. The very next day, this was bumped up to 15% - the statutory maximum. It is evident that the tariff landscape hasn't collapsed; it is merely realigning itself.

A New Landscape for Americas Trade Lanes

In the Americas, the situation varies. According to Americas Quarterly, Latin American economies are relatively well-positioned within this new framework. A uniform 15% tariff rate has replaced the patchwork of country-specific IEEPA tariffs.

●    Brazil: Previously facing surcharges of up to 40% under IEEPA, it is now subject to the 15% baseline, with exemptions including beef, agricultural products, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace products.

●    Canada and Mexico: USMCA-compliant goods continue to be exempt. This is a massive advantage for cross-border air freight routes fueled by the nearshoring trend.

The End of the "Overnight" Volatility Era

The core characteristic of IEEPA was speed - the ability to impose tariffs "overnight" on any country without a formal investigative process. This unpredictability was one of the most disruptive factors for the freight market, frequently sparking volume surges as importers rushed to expedite deliveries ahead of rate changes.

With IEEPA off the board, future tariff actions will require investigative steps and legal procedures. This slower, more predictable process means air freight operators will face fewer sudden spikes in booking demand.

Nevertheless, the macroeconomic damage left behind is substantial. According to the Brookings Institution, the average effective US tariff rate has climbed to nearly 17% - the highest level since the early 1930s - with almost 90% of those costs borne by US companies and consumers. For industries reliant on freight transport across the Americas, this burden has squeezed profit margins and, in some cases, forced a complete modal shift away from air freight.

The Multi-Billion Dollar Refund Puzzle Left Open

One of the most critical unresolved issues is the fate of the tariffs already collected. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that total IEEPA collections reached approximately $165 billion by January 2026, with potential refund exposure up to $175 billion. However, the Supreme Court did not issue any ruling on the refund process, punting this task to the US Court of International Trade.

According to CNBC, only about 2,000 importers have filed protective claims - a drop in the bucket compared to the more than 300,000 businesses that paid IEEPA tariffs. Clearly, air freight importers hoping for reimbursements must brace themselves for a long wait.

The 150-Day Clock on the New Tariff Policy

The Section 122 tariffs will officially expire on July 24, 2026, unless the US Congress votes to extend them. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), this extension scenario carries immense political risk as the midterm elections approach.

● If it expires: The freight market could face a comprehensive reset.

● If extended: The logistics industry will remain locked into the 15% tariff rate for a new cycle.

This ruling by no means ends the uncertainty in trade policy. The current administration's immediate pivot to Section 122 within hours demonstrates that tariff barriers are here to stay, albeit in a more complex, time-limited form. For air freight operators in the Americas, the lesson from the past year remains valid: policies can always shift faster than a supply chain can adapt.

With the July 24 deadline looming, the coming months will be just as decisive for the logistics industry as the events of the past year.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Air Cargo Week)

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