Port of New York & New Jersey

Port of New York & New Jersey ( Photo: World Cargo News)

 

With the USEC port strike now over, Sea-Intelligence observes that the impact is much less severe than initially feared. However, the three-day closure did lead to vessel queues, which is expected to negatively affect capacity availability in the origin regions.

The most optimistic view from Danish analysts is that the impact will be limited to three days of strikes, but in reality it will take some time to clear the backlog of vessels and containers. Sea-Intelligence believes that the impact is likely to be equivalent to a week of lost capacity.

 

asia usec capacity decline

 

The chart shows the relative capacity loss for Asian exporters, comparing the impact over three days and one week with a baseline scenario without strikes.

“Here we see a 17% drop in capacity offered from Asia to US East Coast in the 46th week, if the impact is limited to the minimum of vessels being stuck in the US East Coast for just three days, while if it takes a full week to get the vessel backlog cleared, then we approach a 40% capacity loss for a short period,” said Alan Murphy, CEO Sea-Intelligence.

Similarly, for the North European to US East Coast trades, exporters should prepare for a 14% capacity reduction in week 44, rising to 30% if a week is needed to clear congestion. For the Mediterranean to US East Coast trades, a three-day impact translates into a 10% capacity reduction in week 43, rising to 25% if the impact lasts a week.

“Will the shipping lines take action to mitigate this capacity shortfall?”” Murphy asks, answering his own question: “We find this to be quite unlikely.”

“Exporters, especially in Asia, North Europe, and the Mediterranean, should therefore prepare for a temporary, short-term crunch in capacity.,” said Murphy.

 

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Source: Phaata.com (via Sea-Intelligence)

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