container ship

 

Danish maritime data analytics company, Sea-Intelligence, reports that the initial disruptions to global supply chains caused by the pandemic have had a strong impact on independent shipping lines outside of alliances. In the post-pandemic period, many non-alliance shipping lines have stopped services on main East-West routes.

However, the increase in commodity demand, along with rising spot rates, has resulted in a large amount of shipping capacity outside the alliances entering the market, Sea-Intelligence said, even the Asia-North Europe route, which is mainly operated by the alliances, also witnessed the participation of a number of non-alliance carriers.

 

Capacity forecast for non-alliance carriers on the Asia to North America West Coast route

Source: Sea-Intelligence.com, Sunday Spotlight, number 672
 

Figure 1 shows non-alliance carriers' historical capacity share on the Asia to North America West Coast, as well as the forward 12-week forecast, based on carriers' current deployment plans.

Sea-Intelligence analysts say the Asia-North America West Coast trade will see a sharp increase in the capacity share of non-alliance shipping services in the coming months. Data shows that almost 30% of the capacity deployed on this trade route is expected to be provided on services operating outside the alliance.

"We see a similar pattern for Asia-North Europe, but less so for Asia-North America East Coast and Asia-Mediterranean," said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence. "On Asia-North Europe, if the current 12-week outlook holds, we will see record levels (touching 12%) of non-alliance capacity on the trade lane."

Murphy explains: "Across the main East-West trades, it is clear that the main driver of the non-alliance share is spot rates; a sharp increase in spot rates during the pandemic triggered a sharp increase in non-alliance services, and vice versa when the spot rates collapsed in the second half of 2022. This pattern is now repeating again, as the sharp spot rate increases seen in recent months, once again coincide with an increase in non-alliance services."
 

 

Source: Phaata.com (According to Sea-Intelligence) 

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